IPL playoffs scenarios: PBKS still alive but qualification probability drops to 23% as RCB seal top-4 spot
Royal Challengers Bengaluru became the first team to qualify for IPL 2026 playoffs after beating Punjab Kings by 23 runs in Dharamsala. Check points table and PBKS qualification chances.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru became the first team to qualify for the IPL 2026 playoffs after holding their nerve to beat Punjab Kings by 23 runs in a high-pressure clash at Dharamsala's HPCA Stadium on Sunday.
The result not only confirmed the defending champions' place in the knockouts but also dealt a major blow to Punjab’s playoff hopes, reducing their qualification chances to just 23 percent. This is now the third-lowest among seven teams still eligible for playoffs.
IPL 2026 points table after PBKS vs RCB game
| Pos | Team | M | W | L | T | N/R | PTS | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Challengers Bengaluru | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | +1.065 |
| 2 | Gujarat Titans | 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | +0.400 |
| 3 | Sunrisers Hyderabad | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | +0.331 |
| 4 | Punjab Kings | 13 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | +0.227 |
| 5 | Rajasthan Royals | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +0.082 |
| 6 | Chennai Super Kings | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | +0.027 |
| 7 | Kolkata Knight Riders | 12 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -0.038 |
| 8 | Delhi Capitals | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -0.993 |
| 9 | Mumbai Indians | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -0.504 |
| 10 | Lucknow Super Giants | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -0.701 |
PBKS qualification scenario
The defeat leaves Punjab Kings in a difficult position. With just one match remaining, they must not only win their final league game against Lucknow Super Giants but also depend heavily on other results going their way to stay alive in the race.
More from FirstcricketRCB have already sealed qualification with 18 points, while Gujarat Titans (16) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (14) remain strong contenders for the remaining top spots. Rajasthan Royals and Chennai Super Kings are also mathematically in the mix.
IPL 2026 playoffs qualification probability
Batting first, RCB posted a massive 222/4 on the back of a dominant top-order effort. Virat Kohli (58 off 37), Devdutt Padikkal (45 off 25) and Tim David (28 off 12) gave the foundation, before Venkatesh Iyer stole the show with a blistering 73 not out off just 40 balls.
In reply, Punjab Kings started under pressure and never fully recovered despite a fighting knock from Shashank Singh, who smashed 56 off 27 balls. The chase required a strong powerplay, but early wickets from Bhuvneshwar Kumar and tight bowling from RCB’s attack left PBKS chasing the game from the start.
In the end, Punjab were restricted to 199/8, suffering their sixth consecutive defeat after a promising start to the season.
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