Sanae Takaichi’s visit is set to reinforce the fact that Japan, not US, is India’s truest natural partner

Ever since the Pentagon officially dropped ‘Indo’ from the US Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), reverting to its historic designation as the US Pacific Command (USPACOM), the geopolitical construct of ‘Indo-Pacific’ is feeling a little orphaned. From the depths of despair in India’s strategic circles, it would seem that ‘American abandonment’ has left India with a ‘strategic demotion’ and an impossible task of measuring up alone to a rampaging China.

The elegiac longing for America’s company is as pointless as feeling smothered by its presence. Whether or not American gaze has shifted from Asia, whether or not Donald Trump in his second stint has started an irreversible process of withdrawing America’s long-term security commitments from the Indo-Pacific region, the China challenge won’t fluctuate for countries in Asia in tandem with Uncle Sam’s mood swings.

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That kind of makes an excellent case for countries in the region that feel threatened by the rise of China to enhance their cooperation and maintain a rules-based economic order that may ensure regional peace, stability, supply chain certainty and prosperity – factors that are endangered by China’s assertive military posture, rapid nuclear buildup, and expansive territorial claims.

Under CPC general secretary and president Xi Jinping, China has methodically redrawn the strategic map of the Indo-Pacific. To Beijing, the Indian and the Pacific Oceans are one contiguous and unbroken maritime theatre, and China has patiently built the infrastructure to operate across both. From the port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka to a military base in Djibouti, from dual-use commercial facilities along the Indian Ocean’s rim to naval patrols east of Taiwan, China is constructing a presence that gives it leverage from the Strait of Hormuz to the South China Sea.

While that creates the underlying logic for Indo-Pacific, by the same token, it signifies that the geopolitical construct doesn’t require unremitting commitment or even stewardship from the United States to survive. India and Japan, able actors both, can and should shoulder the responsibility driven by a unity of purpose, mutual interests and a shared threat perception.

As Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi lands in New Delhi today (July 1) on a three-day visit for the 16th India-Japan annual summit – her first official sojourn to India -- the tectonic plates of Asia are undergoing a rapid shift. Chinese aggression, territorial aggrandizement, its ability to stare down the US, and Trump’s lack of appetite for a focused balancing strategy have fundamentally altered the power equation in Asia and the Indo-Pacific region.

The meeting between Takaichi and prime minister Narendra Modi, therefore, is not merely a ceremonial continuation of bilateral relationship; it provides the opportunity for two major democracies facing an irreversible alteration in the regional balance of power to assess the realities and cement their ties.

Indian media outlets are quoting “diplomatic sources” from Japan as saying that “India is an indispensable partner in advancing the updated Free and Open Indo Pacific (FOIP) put forward by PM Takaichi. It is important that Japan and India jointly promote the maintenance and strengthening of a free and open international order based on the rule of law”. The stress on ‘rule of law’ is significant.

Faced with an increasingly assertive hegemon next door, the strategic convergence between New Delhi and Tokyo is not a matter of choice, but a mutual necessity. Bound by shared geography, democratic political system, and a need to secure vital supply chains, India has in Japan a true natural partner that possesses the intent and the capability to anchor the Indo-Pacific. The tyranny of geography will ensure the longevity of this partnership.

The upcoming summit may dovetail Japan’s FOIP and India’s MAHASAGAR initiatives and give both sides a clearer understanding of the challenges and opportunities such a synergy may bring. Since China’s strategic blueprint treats the two oceans as a unified continuum where it projects power, controls maritime chokepoints and uses own supply lines as leverage, the reality mandates a unified response.

India sits at the centre of the Indian Ocean, commanding the vital sea lanes connecting Europe, West Asia and East Asia. Japan forms the eastern anchor, guarding the gateways to the open Pacific. Neither nation may effectively balance a revisionist power in isolation. If the oceans are a single theatre for those seeking to alter the status quo, they must be treated as a single theatre by those seeking to defend it as well. Japan’s updated FOIP, explicitly focusing on the western Pacific where tensions have solidified, concurrently relies on India as an indispensable partner in patrolling the Indian Ocean.

During her keynote address at the Vietnam National University, Hanoi, in May, on the evolution of Japan’s view of ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP), Takaichi put forward the concept of an updated FOIP focusing on “three priority areas”.

In her own words: “First, building economic infrastructure for the age of AI and data including strengthening supply chain resilience for energy and critical materials. Second, co-creation of economic growth opportunities through public-private collaboration and rule sharing. Third, enhancing cooperation in the field of security to ensure regional peace and stability.”

She added that “Japan will advance its own efforts towards this end, and work closely with like-minded countries, will provide cooperation tailored to the needs of friends in the region.”

Explaining her mentor, the late Shinzo Abe’s vision, Takaichi said “it is essential for countries in the region to acquire ‘resilience’ and capability to have freedom to decide for themselves across the economic, social, and security domains so that they can determine their own future in the complex interdependent relations.”

New Delhi won’t find a better natural partner.

For India, the Indian Ocean is the major artery of trade, energy imports and power projection. Resource-poor Japan’s economy relies almost entirely on imported energy and raw materials, and the sea lanes stretching from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Malacca and into the Pacific are of critical importance. Any power that gains the ability to dominate those routes may hold both Japan and India hostage.

China’s expanding dual-use infrastructure along the Indian Ocean in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and the Maldives is therefore a joint headache for both. A Chinese chokehold on Indian Ocean sea lanes would starve Japan of energy. Both countries naturally share a material interest in ensuring that no single power dominates the maritime commons. This shared vulnerability underwrites the India-Japan partnership.

The upcoming visit also brings into sharp focus a dimension of the partnership that is rapidly becoming central to both countries’ national strategies: economic security. The joint declaration expected from the summit may not be a routine trade communiqué. It is designed to operationalise a framework for cooperation in semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy, advanced telecommunications, and artificial intelligence -- the very industries that will define national power in the 21st century.

Takaichi will be accompanied by a heavyweight delegation of over 50 top-tier corporate executives (some reports say over 100), including automobile giant Suzuki Motor chief Toshihiro Suzuki, signalling Tokyo’s appetite for deepened commercial engagement and integrated industrial ecosystems. The bilateral summit is expected to review progress across trade, technology, infrastructure, defence and people-to-people ties.

Japanese and Indian media are reporting that during Takaichi’s visit, both sides may sign a deal on funding a hydrogen and ammonia production project by Japan’s IHI and India’s ACME Group. According to Nikkei Asia, “the ammonia will be produced from hydrogen, which is to be generated in India through electrolysis powered by solar. It will then be exported to Japan.”

Discussions are also under way for both sides to launch a local-currency settlement scheme that would enable direct yen-rupee transactions bypassing the US dollar to reduce foreign-exchange and remittance costs, according to the Japanese outlet.

Dialogue between the two sides may prioritize the diversification and securing of global supply chains and joint ventures in cutting-edge sectors, particularly the fabrication of advanced semiconductors and the modernization of next-generation automotive manufacturing. The idea is to shield both economies from external supply shocks.

What kind of shocks?

On Monday, China blacklisted four Japanese government defence research institutes and imposed tighter export restrictions on 20 other Japanese entities including the National Institute for Defense Studies and research centers for ground, naval, and air systems. Several units under Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries were also targeted, reports CNBC.

This follows a similar move since January when Beijing banned dual-use exports to Japan, including rare earth elements, permanent magnets and other critical minerals required for defence technologies. China blacklisted another 20 entities in February and put on a ‘watchlist’ 20 others. What China is trying to do is cripple Takaichi’s plan to strengthen Japan’s defence capabilities by starving Tokyo’s military-industry complex of the critical inputs required for defence technologies. This is weaponization of the supply chain to force Japan into a relapse into pacifism.

This economic coercion by China is a direct response to Japan’s shifting defence posture and vocal stance on Taiwan under Takaichi. By squeezing supply chains and blocking access to critical materials, Beijing aims to deter Japan’s military expansion.

China is livid with what it calls Japan’s “new militarism”, and apoplectic with rage that Takaichi is initiating a profound transformation of Japan’s economic and military posture by breaking decisively away from pacifism.

For the Japanese PM, the act of forging a proactive defence strategy is taking forward Abe’s legacy. She is revamping Japan’s foundational security documents, and her government has accelerated Japan’s defence spending by crossing the 2 per cent GDP ceiling almost two years ahead of the schedule.

As Bloomberg reports, Takaichi is implementing an audacious plan by “funneling huge sums into industries ranging from artificial intelligence and semiconductors to defense and shipbuilding. In all, she’s singled out 17 sectors critical to both economic and national security as Japan faces broader competition with China for hard power on the world stage.” And in a landmark policy shift, she is permitting the export of lethal weapons including fighter jets, missiles, and naval vessels to 17 partner nations. In short, Japan is waking up.

This evolution makes Tokyo a more potent and flexible partner for New Delhi. A robust, militarily capable Japan relieves pressure on India, complicating China’s strategic calculus. What began as a diplomatic courtship based on shared democratic values has hardened into a security and economic partnership based on mutual interests. Japan is India’s truest natural partner because the core interests of both sides intersect without overlapping into competition. As the two principals meet to tighten these bonds, there is indeed a message for China. Regional stability will not be dictated by a single power.

(Views expressed are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)