Bangladesh’s instability has sharpened India’s ‘Chicken Neck’ challenge

Recent conflict in the Persian Gulf and adjoining Arabian Sea has thrown up many lessons. The lessons from the conflict are not limited only to the two countries involved (Iran and Israel) but also to other resident nations of the Indian Ocean region, India especially being the largest and possibly most powerful in the region. Our interest is in lessons:

Now let’s superimpose this situation and possible lessons over a brewing situation over land, in India’s context, on the Siliguri Corridor, which has been in the news for the wrong reasons recently.

India’s basic premise that the creation of Bangladesh was the result of the sacrifice of Indian soldiers, and therefore the regimes will remain well disposed towards our security concerns, has evaporated after 50 years. During these five decades, India’s connectivity triggered much development in the Northeast (which has land connectivity through a narrow choke point, the Siliguri Corridor). This narrow neck has a complex geography. States of Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, and Meghalaya internally and Bangladesh and Bhutan (therefore, China) externally. As long as a friendly government ruled Bangladesh, peace on the eastern seaboard was assured. But then India-Bangladesh relations have largely been dependent on which Begum’s party was in power.

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Geopolitics is never static, though one component of it, 'geo', i.e., geography, is constant unless ‘politics’ (good or bad) alters the boundaries. 'Politics' is a much bigger term, encompassing world politics and domestic politics. Bangladesh is a good example where politics has altered equations with Bharat and its external security.

Internal factors in Bangladesh provided fodder for externally steered violence and regime change. The present government is led by the BNP, though Jamat-e-Islami also has a significant presence. Jamat is a party of hardliners who did not support Bangladesh’s independence to begin with. Their desire hasn’t diminished. During the recently concluded 13th parliamentary elections, Begum Khalida Zia’s BNP secured 49.97% of the votes, whereas Jamat-e-Islami secured 31.76 per cent. Out of 350 seats, the BNP won 208 seats, whereas the JeI won 69 seats. Jamat plays a dubious role in support of BNP. Their share, being 31.76 per cent, is an important factor in the country’s policy formulation, particularly home and foreign policies. The Prime Minister (being 49.97% of the leader, a party which has historically not been disposed to closer ties with India) is largely influenced by the Jamat principles in taking policy decisions.

Political representation in Bangladesh Parliament from border areas of Indian states.

The 4,096-kilometre international boundary is shared by Indian states as follows: -

The divisions of Mymensingh, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Sylhet and Chittagong are situated along the Indian border. There are 16 official crossing points along the border with integrated check posts with both customs and immigration facilities (3 in Assam, 4 in West Bengal, 5 in Meghalaya, 3 in Tripura and 1 in Mizoram). Of the districts facing the Indian border opposite West Bengal, six are strongholds of Jamat (including the Siliguri Corridor). Whereas areas facing Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura have mixed representation of BNP and JeI, Jamat has a hardline Islamic policy.

Internal Challenges:

Porous border in a number of spots, which has been a source of ingress of aliens for a number of years. Bangladesh prevents fencing leading to face-offs between BSF and BBF, undocumented migration, security and smuggling, border killings, enforcement of Land Boundary Agreement.

The latest hot border issue is due to the expulsion of aliens back to Bangladesh not being accepted in their home country. During the verification of voters’ lists prior to West Bengal Assembly elections, approx. 9 million non-citizens have been identified, of which 6 million are either dead or absent. The tribunal is examining each of the remaining cases.

Externally steered security concerns for India.

Till now, the eastern flank and seaboard were reasonably quiet and stable. However, three factors have changed the geopolitical canvas.

The Bangladeshi government has invited a Chinese state construction firm to make a WWII disused runway at Lalmonirhat operational for BAF usage. This airfield is approx. 135 km from the Siliguri Corridor.

The Siliguri Corridor is a 22-km-wide land choke passage which connects the northeastern states of India to the rest of the country. Much of the northern border of NE India borders China, part of which has been claimed by them, stating that it is Southern Tibet. Though there is no historical evidence. It is a bone of contention where troops are deployed in large numbers.

Pakistan is on record to supply Chinese-origin J-10 fighters to Bangladesh and the PAF to operate in Bangladesh for training and maintenance of J-10s.

Pakistani authorities are on record to state that they will use Bangladesh for an eastern flank attack in the next conflict with India.

China has large investments in Bangladesh's infrastructure development and military hardware, i.e., ships, submarines, fighter and trainer aircraft, and maintenance and operational crew. Chittagong port has been built as a deepwater port for two Chinese-built submarines sold to Bangladesh. Chinese warships and submarines have been paying frequent visits to Bangladesh. This has concerns in India since it exposes naval operations in the Bay of Bengal and missile tests by DRDO to Chinese monitoring.

In the recent past, the US has made entry into Bangladesh on the pretext of a land corridor through Chittagong to Myanmar for HADR support for Rohingya refugees. Possibly, St Martin's Island of Bangladesh has become a USN outpost. However, it is assessed that the following are true:

The US is increasing its military presence and infra development in Bangladesh to get a foothold in the Bay of Bengal and keep check on China’s alternate trade and military route to the Indian Ocean.

The US is discussing bilateral military exercises and port access, which will position it near the Malacca Strait.

Access to Chittagong will give the US access and geographic proximity to Myanmar’s Rakhine state, which is an important staging and recce area for monitoring the civil war in Myanmar and also managing humanitarian access.

The ouster of Sheikh Hasina has opened the door for the US to achieve these objectives. During interim governance of Muhammad Yunus (a Nobel laureate installed by the US), these agreements were reached.

For India, the security concerns for the northeastern states have increased manifold. In the overall analysis, particularly after the arrest of hired operatives of the CIA in Manipur, Delhi and on the Nepal border, it points at being part of a much larger plot by the CIA and the US (probably run from the Nepal border to destabilise India).

US funding to churches in Kolkata and the India-Myanmar border casts serious doubt about the intentions of the deep state of the US.

Recent arrests of another US national on the Nepal-India border (under investigation, possibly a former SEAL CIA agent) and intelligence reports regarding a full-fledged arms training camp in Myanmar near the Indian border, managed by a few retired US armed forces personnel, require concerted action.

In a geopolitical sense, China and Pakistan could use offensive action to sever the Siliguri Corridor, using the expulsion of aliens to Bangladesh as a pretext to separate India’s northeastern states from the mainland. The US, under the pretext of humanitarian assistance, could be funding the churches which are contiguous to some of India’s northeastern states.

It may be recalled that the Biden administration had allocated $75 million to churches on the Myanmar-India border. The arrest of CIA-hired operatives in NE along with 8 Ukrainian drone specialists on the northeastern border and in Delhi only deepens the suspicion.

The recent visit of Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Kolkata and specialists at the Nepalese museum cannot be taken lightly. A larger context could be to carve out a Christian-majority state around the border of India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.

The US president's positive Christian-majority conversation and compliments to PM Modi for the BJP victory in the West Bengal Assembly elections and now praising CM Omar Abdullah for doing a good job (which could be an AI voice) are all preludes to the effort of destabilising India.

The US Embassy could be facilitating some of these activities.

A visit by their ambassador to Chennai to personally congratulate the newly elected non-DMK/Congress/BJP Christian CM and a visit to HQ Western Army Command and a meeting with the Honourable HM and NSA seem out of the box.

Is the US exploiting India’s fault lines such as religious affiliations, gaps in development standards among states, existing friction amongst political parties and societies in a few states ruled by non-BJP governments?

The entire eastern flank is a potential powder keg with both superpowers jostling for supremacy in the ongoing geopolitical contest. It could become India’s internally linked external security challenge.

India could consider notifying a union territory around the Siliguri Corridor consisting of parts of all bordering districts.

Parts of Kishanganj, Katihar and Purnea in Bihar; Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri and Darjeeling in West Bengal; Dhubri, South Salmara, Karimganj and Cachar districts in Assam; parts of Garo Hill districts (South, West and Southwest) in Meghalaya; parts of 7/8 districts in Tripura; and parts of Lunglei, Mamit and Lawngtlai in Mizoram could form such a UT and be brought under the Centre's direct control to respond quickly to internal and external security threats in any future flare-up.

(Vice Admiral Shekhar Sinha (Retd), Former Chief of Integrated Defence Staff & Commander-in-Chief, Western Naval Command. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)