US set to sign Saudi nuclear deal; Rubio says pact won't fuel proliferation

The Trump administration is expected to sign a landmark civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia as early as Wednesday, potentially allowing the kingdom to develop uranium enrichment capabilities for its civilian nuclear programme.

The proposed deal has triggered concerns among non-proliferation experts, though US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted any agreement would include safeguards to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

According to people familiar with the matter, the agreement would allow the United States and Saudi Arabia to jointly study the feasibility of establishing a uranium enrichment facility in the kingdom. The pact is expected to span 30 years and involve American companies in developing Saudi Arabia's civilian nuclear energy programme.

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Speaking to reporters while visiting the Philippines, Rubio declined to confirm the agreement but firmly rejected suggestions that it could contribute to nuclear proliferation.

"The US is not going to reach any agreement with any country in the world that leads to the risk of proliferation," he said.

Deal may face scrutiny over oversight provisions

The agreement is expected to be submitted to the US Congress for review, where lawmakers could raise objections over its oversight provisions.

According to people familiar with the negotiations, the proposed pact is not expected to require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Additional Protocol, which allows for more intrusive inspections and enhanced verification measures.

The reported absence of the protocol has drawn criticism from nuclear experts.

Alexander Bollfrass, a nuclear specialist at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, described the proposal as "a revolutionary new approach" to US non-proliferation policy.

He argued that Washington appeared willing to transfer highly sensitive nuclear technology without insisting on the strongest internationally accepted safeguards, marking a significant departure from previous US policy.

Regional tensions add to concerns

The expected announcement comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions in West Asia following the recent US and Israeli military campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Washington and its allies have long argued that Tehran's uranium enrichment programme could be used to develop nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies, insisting its programme is entirely peaceful.

Non-proliferation experts have warned that while uranium enrichment alone does not automatically enable a country to build a nuclear bomb, it represents one of the most technically sensitive stages of the nuclear fuel cycle and could provide the foundation for a future weapons programme.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously indicated that the kingdom would consider developing nuclear weapons if Iran were to acquire one.

Departure from previous US nuclear model

Both President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden sought to negotiate civil nuclear cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia that would allow the United States to participate in the kingdom's growing energy sector.

Unlike the United Arab Emirates, which agreed to forgo uranium enrichment under its so-called "123 Agreement" with the United States while developing the Barakah nuclear power plant, Saudi Arabia has consistently sought the right to enrich uranium domestically.

The UAE arrangement has long been regarded by non-proliferation experts as the benchmark for peaceful civilian nuclear cooperation.

The proposed Saudi agreement also comes amid evolving regional security dynamics. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan recently signed a mutual defence pact, while Pakistan's defence minister suggested Islamabad's nuclear capabilities could be made available to Riyadh if required—remarks widely interpreted as a strategic signal during heightened tensions in the West Asia.

If finalised, the US-Saudi agreement would mark one of the most consequential shifts in Washington's civil nuclear cooperation policy in recent years, balancing strategic ties with Riyadh against long-standing concerns over nuclear proliferation.

With inputs from agencies