Realpolitik, rare earths and India’s Myanmar calculus: The geopolitics behind Min Aung Hlaing’s Delhi visit

India has the dubious distinction of hosting Myanmar junta chief and President Min Aung Hlaing, the coup leader who overthrew a democratically elected government in 2021. But in an era where access to critical minerals is becoming as important as oil once was, New Delhi’s decision is driven as much by strategic and economic considerations as by traditional security concerns.

New Delhi’s engagement with the military junta is not new; it began as early as 1992 as a pushback against China’s growing influence in the country that shares a border with India’s sensitive north-eastern region.

But now engagement is reinforced by Myanmar’s growing importance as a source of critical minerals. The country has huge quantities of heavy rare earth minerals needed for electric vehicles, wind turbines and defence technology. At a time when critical minerals are powering modern technologies and industries, access to such resources has become a key driver of foreign policy for all countries. However, as of now, most of the heavy critical minerals are in Kachin State, near the China border. These areas, which were once under the control of the junta-aligned forces, are now with the Kachin Independence Army and are mostly sold to China, which adjoins the area. But there are also other areas that are rich in various minerals.

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Following the 2021 coup, Myanmar has been in a state of civil war as the opposition forged alliances with many of the ethnic armed groups in the border regions of the country. It remains to be seen whether Min Aung Hlaing, a former army chief, can stabilise the divided nation.

India’s willingness to engage the junta despite the continuing conflict has angered Myanmar’s democratic opposition and civil society groups, who argue that New Delhi is legitimising military rule. The message from the opposition is clear: India is acting against the people of Myanmar. Nay Phone Latt, a spokesman for the National Unity Government shadow government, said that any country working with the military junta is “opposing the people of Myanmar”.

Yadanar Maung from the Justice For Myanmar activist group is even more forthright: “We condemn India’s decision to host Min Aung Hlaing, who is a war criminal waging a campaign of terror against the Myanmar people,” adding, “India must change course and stop awarding false legitimacy to the junta, stop profiting from the military’s campaign of terror against the people.”

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri pushed back on these allegations during his press briefing, saying, “I should underline that our engagement with Myanmar is not intended to be a commentary on the internal political arrangements in that country.” Defending India’s decision to engage with the junta, he clarified: “The answer is clearly not disengagement. History has shown that disengagement does not give us any results that are better than engagement and certainly does not produce democratic change. On the other hand, not engaging produces a vacuum that others go on to fill to our detriment, and those others have no interest in democracy, I can assure you.”

While neither side publicly disclosed discussions on critical minerals, officials and analysts acknowledge that Myanmar’s vast reserves of rare earths and other strategic minerals have added a new dimension to India’s engagement with the country. Two big-ticket projects, the Kaladan Multimodal Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, have been in limbo for decades as they pass through rebel-held territory over which the military has no control.

Since taking office as a civilian leader in April this year, after what many regard as a “sham election”, Hlaing is travelling abroad for the first time. The fact that he has come to New Delhi instead of Beijing is being appreciated here. But without stability, India’s hopes of doing business with the regime will not materialise.

“The opposition in Myanmar will surely be disappointed by the invitation to the coup leader, but it ought to be borne in mind that China never faced insurgency in its Yunnan province bordering Myanmar, while insurgency has been an integral part of the North East’s identity,” says Suhas Chakma, Director, Rights & Risks Analysis Group.

In today’s world, where geopolitical interests and strategic pragmatism outweigh concerns about democracy and human rights, and where strongmen and dictators are routinely courted by major powers, New Delhi’s decision to welcome Hlaing is hardly surprising. For India, the imperatives of border security, competition with China and access to critical mineral resources increasingly outweigh concerns about the nature of the regime in Naypyidaw.

(Seema Guha is a journalist who has extensively covered foreign policy and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)