PM Modi’s eastward push: Resetting India’s Indo-Pacific strategy

Following several visits covering Europe, West Asia and the Indian Ocean island state of Seychelles, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Indian government have given their utmost attention to refining and implementing India’s Act East Policy and the Indo-Pacific strategy. His short visit to Malaysia in February was followed by the Japanese Prime Minister’s visit to India in early July.

This set the stage for placing a special focus on three nations in the East — Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand. PM Modi’s voyage there from July 6-11 was one of the longest, most ambitious, and consequential visits by an Indian prime minister. This extensive journey was full of spectacle as well as substance. To evaluate its outcome and impact in real terms, one must look beyond the headlines and dig deeper than the large cluster of photos and videos from the past week.

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The context

The context also needs to be kept in mind. The Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, the conflict in Gaza, and the Gulf war combined to reduce the salience of the Indo-Pacific. In addition, starting in January 2025, the US administration began signalling that other regions were more important to the US and planned to forge a cooperative, less adversarial relationship with China. All this led Asian states, including India, to appraise their policy options and adjust to new power realities, especially the possible implications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for Southeast and East Asia. What if the Strait of Malacca were closed due to a war or actions by a particular state? A common, discernible response was to promote greater cooperation in the defence and economic domains among the key Indo-Pacific democracies. This seemed to be the leitmotif of Modi’s July safari to the region.

Now, a close, country-wise look at the actual outcomes should prove useful.

Indonesia

The history of India-Indonesia relations over the past decade shows that, despite mutual recognition of an old civilisational connection, strategic commonality, and a shared desire to expand bilateral cooperation, the relationship somehow fell short of a major take-off. PM Modi’s visit to Indonesia in 2018 and President Prabowo Subianto’s state visit to India as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day celebrations in January 2025 are cited as examples supporting this thesis. The planners of the latest visit were obviously conscious of this backdrop. Therefore, while arranging excellent optics, they attempted to focus on producing tangible results this time.

Among the key outcomes, one may identify the shared commitment to deepen strategic cooperation as a major plus. Not leaving it to mere rhetoric, Jakarta came on board with the conclusion of MoUs to buy the BrahMos and Astra missiles from India, in a noticeable shift towards taking defence and security cooperation to a new level. Further, both sides spoke in the same language to convey a strong interest in strengthening the maritime dimension of the relationship by establishing connectivity between India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Indonesia’s Aceh province, and in cooperating to develop Sabang Port. Their sincerity will now be tested. Either they demonstrate real progress in the coming months, or this commitment may go the same way as the understandings reached in the past.

On economic cooperation, old-timers in Jakarta swear by a perceptible increase in the presence and activities of major Indian companies. Yet, the goal of enhancing bilateral trade from $30 billion to $50 billion by 2030 will require sustained effort. India’s decision to assist in the restoration of the Prambanan Temple complex and Jakarta’s decision to facilitate the opening of a campus of the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore in the Singhasari SEZ have received a warm welcome.

On a formal level, the visit to Indonesia resulted in 14 MoUs/agreements and six announcements. The 58-paragraph joint statement articulated “the shared commitment of the two leaders to achieve a substantial upward trajectory in the India–Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”

Australia

As the host to a large Indian community representing about 5 per cent of the nation’s total population, as a valued Quad partner, and as a democracy linked through three Cs — Commonwealth, Cricket and Curry — Australia paid great attention to Modi’s visit. This was his third visit to the country. Internal political factors also contributed to its significance. His stay in Melbourne, packed with well-conceived events, underscored various facets of the vibrant relationship, which seasoned observers and experts claim has reached its best phase ever.

Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stressed to journalists that 2026 marked the sixth year of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which is a “dynamic and fast-growing relationship that has consistently deepened across multiple sectors”. On the trade front, the good news was that bilateral trade had grown by 55 per cent since 2022, when the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) was signed. The decision taken during the visit was to conclude the higher-level pact, the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA), at the earliest possible opportunity. An important agreement reached was to operationalise the 2014 agreement, which will facilitate Australia’s supply of uranium. This will be a major gain for civil nuclear cooperation and will help expand India’s renewable energy production.

The visit to Australia produced 19 MoUs and agreements, including the more important ones such as the Joint Declaration on Defence and Security Cooperation, the Maritime Security Collaboration Roadmap, the Joint Statement on Energy Security, and the Administrative Arrangement for the Civil Nuclear Agreement (referred to above). The 28-paragraph joint statement at the annual summit voiced the two sides’ shared commitment to consolidating and expanding the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) and “to respond to emerging challenges in a rapidly evolving global environment”. They reiterated the importance of the Quad “as a partnership that delivers practical and concrete outcomes for the Indo-Pacific”.

New Zealand

The fact that an Indian Prime Minister was visiting New Zealand after a gap of 40 years underlined two points: first, that New Zealand’s significance for India was increasing; and second, that India’s worldview is now truly global, stretching from Sweden to Seychelles and Brazil to Wellington. A concrete decision was to elevate the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership. After a full-spectrum review of bilateral relations — actual and potential — the two Prime Ministers reaffirmed “their commitment to deepen cooperation across areas of mutual interest”. They agreed to ensure the early implementation of the India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and set a target of doubling bilateral trade by 2030.

As in the previous two countries, PM Modi addressed a large gathering of members of the Indian community in the presence of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. The former urged the community “to continue serving as a bridge of friendship”. Despite this, some voices of criticism were heard in both Australia and New Zealand as to why the visiting Indian Prime Minister was interacting with Australians and New Zealanders of Indian origin.

This visit resulted in 10 MoUs/agreements and eight announcements. The 40-paragraph joint statement endorsed the India-New Zealand Strategic Partnership Roadmap to 2030 as “a framework to guide joint action for the next four years”.

Final word

The three-country voyage to the East, amid a major geopolitical churn, underscored the enduring relevance of the Indo-Pacific to India. The entire range of responses observed in the nations visited revealed their strategic convergence and determination to work more closely with India. Indian diplomacy has delivered a meaningful tour by the Prime Minister. Now, it is the duty of all relevant ministers, officials, business leaders, and others to ensure effective and timely follow-up so that the seeds sown blossom into fruit-bearing trees in the fullness of time.

(Rajiv Bhatia is a Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House, a former Ambassador to several countries, and the author of three well-acclaimed books on Indian foreign policy. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)