Lebanon trapped in Iran-Israel crossfire

Lebanon, a great people and country, has suffered enormously and perhaps unfairly for decades. The Switzerland of the East is stuck in the MAD syndrome between Iran and Israel, even though the birth of Hezbollah and its predecessor even predates it. Hezbollah has always accepted the Iranian Supreme Leader as its spiritual leader and provides an unusual asymmetric advantage to Tehran in the Levant. It is also the most potent of the 4Hs proxies, which include Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Houthis (Yemen), and Kataib Hezbollah, as well as several Islamic militia groups (Iraq) aligned to the Islamic regime and whom the new Iraqi Prime Minister is trying to disarm and integrate.

Meanwhile, since the October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas on Israel, the Netanyahu government has gone on a carpet-bombing campaign, especially in Gaza, and pursued a decapitation strategy against Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Iranian politico-military leadership. The US-Iran-Israel war from June 2025 to February 28, 2026, onwards has changed the strategic dynamic in West Asia as existing equations and fault lines have come under unprecedented stress, with survival becoming the key parameter.

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While the USA is following a policy of escalation and ceasefire adherence with Iran, and some talks are going on for an elusive state of non-confrontation among arch-rivals, Netanyahu took the opportunity to decimate Hezbollah in Lebanon up to the Litani River and create a buffer while carrying on dialogue with a helpless and much-harassed Lebanese government stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Even as bilateral talks and a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon ensue, with continuing violations, the sovereignty issue will dictate the outcome on this volatile track. Thousands of people have been killed and a large number displaced. But for Iran, the survival of Hezbollah is equally important after having lost its strategic influence in Syria with the removal of Assad and the onset of Al Sharaa, who owes a lot to the US and Türkiye, having been legitimised from an Al Qaeda terrorist with a $10 million bounty.

Therefore, in the highly fragile MoU, the first clause and the precondition was the cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. This in itself is problematic because of the underlying premise that the US holds the trigger to Netanyahu's guns. In fact, most observers believe that it is the other way round. But since Trump agreed, he tried hard to prevail upon Netanyahu and even spoke to the Hezbollah leadership to agree to a ceasefire as he hosted direct talks between the Israeli and Lebanese negotiators. The agreed deal did not guarantee the sovereignty of Lebanon, which is impinged upon by both Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah is also a political entity in Lebanon and wields significant influence on the rulership and power spectrum. Hence, the Israeli precondition of disarming Hezbollah is fraught with uncertainty and more instability.

Frustration is rampant among the Lebanese leadership. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun rejected attempts to tie Lebanon's future to the Iranian negotiations, declaring that "we are now separate from the Iranian situation and the Islamabad agreement". He also urged all parties to give the US-sponsored framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel a chance, accusing both Tehran and Tel Aviv of trying to undermine it. Hezbollah has also rejected it. Aoun warned that if Hezbollah refuses to cooperate with efforts to end the war in South Lebanon, "it will bear responsibility for its decision" and prove that it places Iran's interests above Lebanon's. Hezbollah has not yielded the requisite space as yet.

Israel has initiated a pilot project to hand over certain areas to the Lebanese army and see how it progresses in the wake of Hezbollah's opposition until their demands are met, which include an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, the return of bodies, and reconstruction. Aoun commented that these are the same goals they are pursuing as well, but the methodologies are different, and talks and implementation of the agreement are the only viable option.

With regard to disarmament and Hezbollah's weapons, Aoun said: "As long as the party's choice is Iranian, there will be no point. Matters will be resolved only when its choice becomes Lebanese rather than Iranian." He stressed that Hezbollah cannot be dealt with by force because it is not just an armed group "but also a social constituency".

On his part, President Trump was really very upset with the Israeli prime minister and leadership when the latter continued to indulge in violations and attacks on southern Lebanon and Beirut, which invoked global and Western condemnation, forcing Trump to take a harsher line. It also tended to derail the Trumpian off-ramp in the form of the MoU signed with Iran. Not only did he use the choicest words against them, but he even suggested that Hezbollah be taken care of by Al Sharaa, thereby once again fondly referring to his previous credentials, since they know it better. After his NATO summit, Trump decided to remove the terror tag and sanctions on Syria. Happily, the Syrian government, facing its own challenges, refused to be dragged into Lebanese affairs, appreciating the common challenge of violations of sovereignty.

As President Aoun is preparing to visit the White House to meet President Trump on July 21, he maintains that pressure on Hezbollah alone will not work and that cooperation is a must. He, however, stressed that he, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri "do not want sedition or internal fighting". Not wanting to get entangled in US-Iran affairs, he added, "We are now separate from the Iranian situation and the Islamabad agreement." So far, they have not appointed their representative as mandated under the Washington-Tehran framework agreement, i.e., the MoU. Whatever the impressions or convictions, the fact remains, and observers agree, that if the US-Iran war escalates and resumes at scale, and if the agreement between Washington and Tehran is disrupted, Hezbollah is likely to return to confrontation as well, in an attempt to restore its gains or improve its position in any settlement later on.

The industrious Lebanese people need and deserve peace, security, and stability from the internal and external destabilisation, having suffered for decades from global contestations and regional rivalries.

(Anil Trigunayat is a former Indian ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and a distinguished fellow and head of the West Asia Experts Group at the prestigious Vivekananda International Foundation. He is also a Distinguished Fellow at the oldest Indian think tank, the United Services Institution of India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)