Hormuz trap: Why Trump’s Iran strategy is spiralling out of control

The US-Iran ceasefire was short-lived and the 14-Point MoU is officially dead. Round 2 of the conflict in Iran is well and truly on, and this phase could be far deadlier than the earlier rounds. Both sides are accusing the other of violating the terms of the ceasefire, and the strikes are increasing in depth and scope with every passing day.

With one red line after another being crossed, it is feared that very soon, options to control the escalation may run out and whatever off-ramp was available earlier may no longer be feasible.

The Escalation Trap

How did it reach this stage? Can the escalation ladder still be controlled? Is the US, and especially President Trump, getting sucked into an escalation trap from which he may find it difficult to exit?

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An escalation trap refers to a situation wherein the side which is militarily superior keeps upping the ante in the hope that the continuing destruction of the enemy’s military and economic capability will make it untenable for it to continue the conflict, forcing it to seek compromise and a ceasefire. If the enemy refuses to bow down, the militarily superior side keeps committing more and more resources.

However, instead of imposing effective deterrence, each military option exercised evokes an equal, if not more powerful, response from the adversary, thus failing to deliver a decisive victory. The opportunities for an honourable exit too dry up, leaving the side which was earlier ascendant trapped in a conflict from which it can neither exit nor emerge as a clear winner.

In the current phase too, it is quite evident that the US is slowly getting to a point from which it may find it very difficult to exit without huge compromises. It all started in the early hours of 8th July when the US struck 80 targets in Iran, and Iran retaliated almost immediately, targeting 85 American targets in the Gulf region, breaking the 23-day truce that was signed on 16th June. The reason? Iran had earlier fired on three commercial ships which were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz through Omani waters, something which ran counter to Iran’s claims that all ships transiting the Strait should follow the sea lanes designated by it through its territorial waters.

The US called it a violation of the 14-Point MoU and immediately struck Iran, mostly along the southern coast. Over the next few days, both sides traded strikes, with the category of targets being engaged crossing new thresholds of tolerance very rapidly.

The Current Strikes

On the Iranian front, the US started by striking air defence systems, command and control networks, coastal radar, and anti-ship missile capabilities in the areas of Iranshahr, Bandar Abbas, Konarak, Bushehr, as well as Aq Qala in north-eastern Iran. Sixty IRGC fast-attack small craft were destroyed in the Strait of Hormuz. For the first time, US strikes targeted the port of Chabahar, where extensive damage was caused to a terminal and the control tower.

As the strikes progressed, the nature of the targets changed rapidly. A water pumping station in Mahshahr, south-western Iran, was targeted, while another American fighter jet strike hit a railway bridge over the Gorganrud River in northern Iran on 12th July. This railway line is strategically important to Iran as it is an important part of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and is Iran’s rail gateway to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and the Russian network.

US strikes also landed in close proximity to the Bushehr nuclear plant, Iran’s only operational reactor. Explosions were also reported in Khondab, central Iran, which is home to the Arak reactor, Iran’s 40-megawatt heavy-water nuclear facility. On 15th July, US missiles struck a bottled mineral water production factory in Dehloran, south-western Iran.

Iran too started off slowly, initially targeting US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, but as the American strikes increased, the Iranian counter-strikes expanded in scope, covering Jordan, Qatar, the UAE and even Oman. As a result, the US command and control centre at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan was damaged. This base hosts US F-35 fighter jets. In addition, American fuel depots and missile storage facilities at Prince Hassan Air Base in Jordan suffered damage.

In Kuwait, the destruction at US bases continued and a THAAD missile defence battery protecting Camp Arifjan was neutralised. The FPS strategic radar system at Ahmed Al Jaber Air Base was completely destroyed, while a Patriot missile system at Ali Al Salem Air Base also suffered extensive damage.

In Qatar, there was widespread damage at Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the CENTCOM headquarters. Major damage included a satellite communications antenna and a fighter jet maintenance and repair facility. In the UAE, Al Dhafra Air Base again suffered major damage, including to early warning radars, aircraft hangars, barracks, logistics hubs, and the AWACS and aerial refuelling coordination hub. In Bahrain, which hosts the US Navy Fifth Fleet and NAVCENT, the US Naval Forces Central Command suffered extensive damage. However, what was most surprising was Iranian missiles striking and damaging logistical support centres for US aircraft carriers and refuelling platforms at Duqm Port in Oman.

The Kharg Island Trap

The US, in the ongoing strikes, has targeted oil facilities on the strategically important Kharg Island more than once. President Trump has claimed that American troops could soon occupy Kharg Island and that all revenues accruing from oil exports thereafter would become American property. Going merely by geography and its importance, Kharg Island is a trap which US forces would do well to avoid. It is a 20 sq km piece of land located merely 25 km off the coastline in the northern Persian Gulf. It exports almost 2 million barrels of crude oil per day, which are pumped into it through pipelines from the mainland.

The terrain is flat with an average elevation of 10 metres, the highest being 70 metres at Kūh-e Dīdeh Bānī. As a result, it is easy for an amphibious landing to take place, but in a sustained military engagement, due to unobstructed fields of fire and very little natural concealment, it gives a significant advantage to the defender. Its close proximity to the Iranian coast makes it easy for Iranian defences to engage invading forces with not only missiles and drones but also field artillery. While the initial capture of Kharg Island may be feasible by US Marines, it is the sustained stay and operations which present a formidable challenge under direct interdiction by Iran, with very little cover.

The Bab al-Mandeb Trap

As if the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and its closure were not bad enough, a sudden and, to a great extent, unprovoked conflict in the Red Sea is threatening to open a new front in this war. On 14th July, the Saudi-backed Yemeni Government bombed the Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport in Yemen.

The Houthis retaliated immediately by striking Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport and announced their intent to close the Bab al-Mandeb, the other choke point in the region. If that happens, it could have catastrophic implications for the global economy. With more than 12 per cent of global trade flowing through it, including crude oil and gas, this adds more misery to global energy supplies, already badly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

It may be recalled that during the Gaza war too, the Houthis successfully closed the Bab al-Mandeb. Despite the US deploying an aircraft carrier group in the Red Sea under Operation Prosperity Guardian and the European Union Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) deployment in February 2024, the Houthis were not deterred. They launched more than 60 attacks on commercial as well as naval vessels in the Red Sea, resulting in the sinking of two ships: the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned-and-operated Tutor, which sank in the Red Sea in June, and the Belize-flagged Rubymar, which sank in March 2024.

The Houthis even launched anti-ship missiles at USS Laboon, a US destroyer, and also downed two MQ-9 Reaper drones. As a result, the naval operations were soon withdrawn and global trade was disrupted and diverted through the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding substantially to costs and transit times.

Rapidly Climbing Escalation Matrix

As the war continues, the escalation matrix is climbing rapidly. The US is now striking water plants, energy and electricity infrastructure, and strategic bridges, all of which are clear red lines for Iran. President Trump has officially notified the US Congress that military action has resumed in Iran and that it will resume its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships with effect from 4.00 pm ET on 14th July. He even boasted of taking 20 per cent of all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz as a fee, calling the US “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT”, only to withdraw the statement 24 hours later while seeking trade and investment deals from the Gulf countries.

Iran too is not backing down, threatening to target any nation, including Israel and those in Europe, which facilitates or takes an active part in the war. The improved effectiveness of Iranian strikes and the definite increase in the number of missiles escaping the American air defence umbrella are causes for concern too.

Looking Ahead

The war is entering a very delicate phase wherein, if cool minds do not prevail, any off-ramp will become difficult and the war could become prolonged. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the Bab al-Mandeb joins the blockade, it could spell doom for the world economy. This will increase pressure on the US to terminate the conflict, but the cost could then be high, both economically and in terms of reputation.

The US is caught in a bind, fighting a war it should never have been a part of. It is fighting Israel’s war, but Israel is sitting this one out, at least for the time being. In addition, the constantly changing goalposts of the US are not helping its cause. Iran, meanwhile, is clearly fighting a war for its existence and national pride. With its assassinated Supreme Leader laid to rest, Iran appears ready to throw caution to the winds. The US is running out of options, and a ground operation to either seize Kharg Island or the two shoulders of the Strait of Hormuz could be attempted as a desperate tactic, the results of which could trap America even deeper into the war.

On the escalation ladder, this could be a step closer to the top, with very few rungs left to climb thereafter. With the conflict escalating and President Trump now openly threatening to target Iran’s strategic assets such as energy, electricity, water and bridges, this war looks far from over.

(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)