Don’t let Modi and Takaichi’s geniality fool you; Japan and India are fusing a potent economic and security partnership

Prime minister Narendra Modi is known to greet world leaders with a signature bear hug, denoting warmth and friendship. Notably, during his recent meeting with US president Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit, the embrace was absent in favour of a firm, businesslike handshake. It doesn’t take a body language specialist to decipher the chill that has crept into the relationship.

Contrast this with the mood as Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi landed in India on her maiden visit and held the annual summit on Thursday with prime minister Modi.

After the meeting, Takaichi posted on X “In a relaxed atmosphere distinct from our formal talks, Prime Minister Modi and I candidly discussed not only Japan-India relations and the international situation, but also the cultures and cuisines of our two countries, as well as our personal sentiments toward each other’s nations, allowing us to further deepen our mutual trust on a personal level. I sincerely express my heartfelt gratitude for India's proud, rich culinary culture and Prime Minister Modi’s warm hospitality.”

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The pictures of a beaming Japanese PM accompanying her post told its own story. The warmth, sincerity and affability between the two leaders was evident. Later, during the joint presser with Modi, Takaichi said, “You called me a beautiful younger sister, Prime Minister Modi, but at the small meeting before the big meeting we confirmed that we are on the same page and develop this relationship as brother and sister.”

Don’t let the captivating smiles of Takaichi, her hand at ceremonial beating of drums, playing of santoor, and the overall spirit of geniality fool you, however.

Beneath the glowing smiles and familial gestures, the two principals laid down the brass tacks for an enduring security and economic partnership, indicating the steely resolve that is driving the tightening of ties amid mounting concerns on both sides owing to the rise of an aggressive China and a recalcitrant United States.

I’ll let the Japanese PM’s words do the heavy lifting.

“Japan and India must leverage our respective strength to become stronger and more prosperous together. In the midst of international affairs in disarray, the establishment of such inter complementary cooperative relationship has become ever more important.” The reference to the difficulties faced by middle powers at a time when the two superpowers are bent on carving up the world in a return to ‘sphere of influence’ geopolitics, couldn’t be clearer.

For Takaichi, the situation is dire. Its treaty ally, the US, is too distracted to care. China has launched a multi-faceted pressure campaign against Japan, driving relations to their lowest point since 2010. Beijing’s ire was triggered in November when Takaichi suggested that Tokyo may help defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. It crossed what Beijing considers its ‘reddest of red lines’.

In retaliation against what it calls Japan’s ‘new militarism’, which is an effort by the Takaichi government to shed Japan’s traditional pacifism, increase defence spending and military cooperation with Indo-Pacific littorals such as Philippines, Beijing has deployed a mix of economic and military threats.

China is blacklisting several Japanese defence entities, banning their access to Chinese rare earth and critical minerals that are vital for manufacturing. Beijing is also detaining Japanese businessmen, banning Japanese seafood, and curtailing people-to-people exchanges. Militarily, China is conducting joint bomber patrols with Russia near Japanese airspace and increasing coast guard operations near Taiwan.

Amid this turbulence, Tokyo sees in New Delhi an able partner and a candidate for stronger defence coordination to counter the shift in regional balance of power. In Takaichi’s words, “By drawing on each other’s strengths, Japan and India can become stronger and more prosperous together… Amid a turbulent international environment, building such a mutually complementary partnership has become increasingly important.”

Browsing through the official documents released after the summit – the “list of outcomes” (all 16 of them), the Annual Summit Joint Statement, the landmark ‘Joint Declaration on Economic Security Cooperation’ and a host of other statements and fact sheets, it is evident that this summit has fundamentally reimagined bilateral ties, transforming them from a partnership of economic convenience into a quasi-alliance of strategic deterrence.

Both leaders recognize that regional peace and a rules-based order require more than diplomatic rhetoric; they require military capabilities and resilient economic ecosystems aligned with India’s MAHASAGAR vision and Japan’s upgraded Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision. The joint statements – such as the one on AI and on energy resilience – reflect the urgency and the changing pattern.

The relationship between the two countries has been expanding across trade, technology, and security for two decades. What this summit did is give that expansion a more deliberate institutional shape, anchored in the shared recognition that economic security and national security operate no longer in separate policy silos.

China is not named in any of the documents, but like the ‘anaconda in the chandelier’, it casts an all-pervasive shadow. Beijing is the largest trading partner of both India and Japan, which makes the relationship with China simultaneously a commercial necessity and a source of strategic discomfort.

China’s dominance of rare earth and critical mineral supply chains prompted the explicit reference to “economic coercion” in the Economic Security Declaration joint statement.

“Both sides reiterate their grave concerns over the use of economic coercion and non-market policies and practices (NMPPs), including arbitrary export restrictions that may lead to supply chain disruptions, particularly on critical minerals, and critical industrial sectors, and price manipulation. They concur on the importance of maintaining a fair competitive global environment and establishing and safeguarding a resilient and reliable supply chain among like-minded partners to promote collective resilience.”

Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal stated at a parallel forum this week that the semiconductor supply chain is “too concentrated in China.” The underlying tension, that both countries remain commercially intertwined with Beijing while working to reduce their vulnerability, is one that the declaration addresses through institutional mechanisms.

The ‘Economic Security Cooperation’ establishes a formal Japan-India Economic Security Dialogue and identifies five priority sectors: semiconductors, critical minerals, information and communication technology, clean energy and pharmaceuticals.

It calls for promoting “safe, secure, and trustworthy AI by fostering diversified, resilient, and trusted supply chains” among “like-minded countries”, pointing towards each other in practice.

There is genuine industrial dovetailing. Japan holds advanced chip-making equipment and process technology; India has a growing chip-design workforce and expanding fabrication capacity. Japan is already supporting India’s semiconductor projects in Gujarat and Karnataka. Former Japanese ambassador Kenji Hiramatsu has described resilient Indo-Japanese supply chains as “a central focus of PM Takaichi’s updated vision” for the Indo-Pacific.

Japan and India understand the nature of the challenge facing them, and are moving swiftly. Takaichi said both leaders have decided on “three points at the centre of cooperation.”

First, to deepen the strategic cooperation between Japan and India, there will be a laser focus on “self-reliance and resilience to realize Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)”, said Takaichi.

Modi, equally, placed it on record that “a free, prosperous, and rules-based Indo-Pacific is our shared priority. As the region’s largest democratic and market economies, today we have launched several important initiatives. Together, we will pave the way for peace, stability, and progress throughout the region”.

This involves, as it emerged, holding a fourth 2+2 ministerial dialogue involving foreign and defence ministers of both countries within this year.

Takaichi said, “taking the opportunity of our visit, a destroyer of Japan s maritime self defence force and an India Navy vessel are planning to engage in joint exercise. We will enhance exercises in the Indian Ocean, promote naval maintenance, repair and overhaul cooperation, and strengthen equipment cooperation under the Make in India framework,” as reported by ANI.

The second point is Japan-India cooperation on economic and energy security. This ties up with the Powerr Asia initiative, a framework proposed by Takaichi that will channel Japanese public-private finance into India’s power grid, with up to $490 million in loans for projects that enhance transmission, resilience and renewable integration, deepening Indo-Pacific energy connectivity.

The third point, according to Takaichi, is the co-creation of economic growth through investment and innovation collaboration. In Takaichi’s words, “I am committed to realizing a strong economy and aiming to enhance Japan’s supply capability and technological capabilities through investment in 17 strategic areas. PM Modi launched Viksit Bharat, a national goal to become a developed nation by 2047, and it’s strongly driving India’s growth. In this way, we share the goal of making our countries strong and prosperous through investments in the future.”

Expansion of maritime security cooperation is a key area of the partnership, and “especially important for regional peace and stability,” as Takaichi put it.

Perhaps the most striking deliverable of the summit, therefore, is the manufacturing of the naval radio antenna ‘UNICORN’ (Unified Complex Radio Antenna) that marks a watershed moment in Asian security.

The UNICORN system – that integrates radar, data link, electronic warfare, identification and countermeasures into a single stealth structure -- is also the first defence system that India and Japan have formally agreed to co-develop under Japan’s revised defence export policy and India’s ‘Make in India’ initiative, where Bharat Electronics (BEL) will work alongside Japanese firms.

By pooling their technological and manufacturing capabilities, India and Japan are denying China the maritime advantage it seeks in contested waters. This agreement symbolizes Japan’s shift from a pacifist arms exporter to an active security provider, and India’s emergence as one of Tokyo’s trusted defence partners.

It is no less ironic that China’s aggression and territorial aggrandizement have catalyzed exactly what Beijing is most apprehensive about -- an integrated, technologically advanced, and militarily capable alliance of Asia’s two largest democracies. Let Uncle Sam remain busy with semantics.

(Views expressed are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)