America’s credibility crisis is Indo-Pacific’s biggest challenge

The persistent wars in Europe and West Asia continue to spread instability, create uncertainty and generate apprehensions in many parts of the world, particularly the Indo-Pacific region. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage war against Ukraine created food, fertiliser and fuel shortages that severely affected the masses in the Global South.

The Ukraine War got prolonged and deepened first by the Biden administration's determination to turn Ukraine into a Cold War battleground against Russia. His successor President Donald Trump showed no interest in pursuing Biden’s agenda and repeatedly declared his intention to try to end the Ukraine war. While discontinuing the supply of sophisticated arms to Ukraine, President Trump did take steps to end the war by holding numerous telephonic discussions with President Putin. He went to the extent of inviting Putin for a summit meeting on American soil, an event that is a rarity in the history of US-Russian relations.

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However, President Trump has so far failed in influencing President Putin of Russia and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to even agree to a ceasefire accord. As Putin has resolved to keep the territory its army has conquered and Zelenski is determined not to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia, the war continues. When Washington’s attention turned away from Ukraine towards Iran, the pressure on Russia to work towards a ceasefire agreement diminished. When Trump appeared more friendly towards Putin and less committed to assisting Ukraine, other NATO members came forward to ensure that Russia does not come out victorious from the war. The war thus has continued. In the meantime, Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory and hit where it hurts the most — the energy infrastructure — has further fuelled its desire to continue the war until Russia shows willingness to compromise.

The crises of living for millions around the world, especially in the Global South, have got further exacerbated by the Iran war that was initially launched by the combined forces of Israel and the United States, and now it has become US President Trump’s war. More than the Ukraine War, it is the Iran War that has brutally impacted the lives of common people in literally every country of the world, including the United States. The persistent turbulence in the energy market threatens the stability and resilience of the global economy. While the oil and gas producers benefit a great deal from high energy prices, the rest of the sectors of the global economy intensely suffer, including travel, tourism, transport, health and many others.

The on-again-off-again negotiations between the United States and Iran seem to have impacted the basic ingredient of international relations, and that is trust. While President Trump’s imperial ambitions and mercurial personality have increased the trust deficit of the United States, ironically more in countries that are military allies and strategic partners, Iran’s ability to undertake missile attacks on the neighbouring Persian Gulf countries, even after heavy destruction caused by the US and Israeli bombardments, has also raised the question of reliability and credibility of American security commitments.

These two wars have caused concerns and apprehensions in the Indo-Pacific about future peace and stability in the region. The Sino-US relations post the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing appear neither positive nor confrontational. The real worries in the region are the reliability of the Trump administration in fulfilling the decades-old American security commitments in the face of Chinese assertiveness and belligerence.

Recently, China conducted a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile test in the Pacific and gave only a few hours’ notice to the United States before the test, and that too with incomplete information. The US could, of course, do little except criticise it. It did not perturb Washington for obvious reasons, but it sent shock waves among the regional countries. Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, and the South Pacific Island countries saw the potential repercussions of China's flexing of military muscle and openly expressed concern.

Secondly, China has turned a deaf ear to the Trump administration’s proposal for nuclear arms control negotiations and has reportedly been working towards hugely expanding its nuclear arsenal. If Russia is a strategic partner and China lived with the US nuclear arsenals for decades, what is the urgency in the Indo-Pacific region for President Xi Jinping to expand the country's nuclear arsenal and modernise it?

The Trump administration appears little concerned about the outcome of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pyongyang to strengthen strategic ties with North Korea, although it has considerably disturbed Japan. President Trump sought to impress the North Korean president to denuclearise during his first term, but during his second term he has repeatedly asked Japan and South Korea to do more to defend themselves. Both in Japan and South Korea, the trust in the US extended nuclear deterrence has come under question. And this trust has got further beaten in the face of President Trump’s treatment towards the NATO allies.

China’s assertion of sovereignty over the waters and islands of the South China Sea has almost become a new normal. ASEAN’s efforts for a multilateral negotiation to resolve the disputes over sovereignty issues have slowed, while the China-Philippines dispute often turns violent. The Trumpian approach towards China is much less assuring to Southeast Asian countries in terms of their faith in American security commitments.

In addition, China-Japan differences over the Senkaku Islands’ sovereignty periodically raise tension in the East China Sea. Ever since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi raised the issue of Taiwan, the bilateral tension between these two countries only requires a spark to flare up. Washington’s position over the Senkaku Island issue and Taiwan has remained ambiguous for decades. But when Trump made a statement recently that he would not commit troops to defend Taiwan, thousands of miles from the American coast, it sent wrong signals to China and increased regional apprehensions over the US security commitment for regional stability. President Xi Jinping declared Taiwan as the red line during President Trump’s visit to China, while the American president maintained studied silence on this issue.

On the surface, the Indo-Pacific region seems peaceful and stable compared to what is happening in Europe and West Asia. But the potential for conflict is clearly simmering underneath. Will China do what Russia has done to Ukraine or the US has done to Iran in the region?

(The writer is founder chairperson, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies, and Editor, India Quarterly. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)