Weather report: Record-breaking rainfall sweeps across India

The 8th Bay of Bengal-origin low-pressure area brought renewed vigour to the monsoon in the past week, with widespread rainfall occurring in East India during the first few days and later spreading to Central, West, and North India after midweek.Very heavy to extremely heavy rains hit Madhya Pradesh and South Rajasthan on the 15 and 16 September, breaking several records.This compact weather system inundated western Madhya Pradesh on Friday and Saturday, with Dhar city recording 301mm of rainfall within 24 hours ending at 8:30 am on Sunday morning. This sets a new record for the highest-ever single-day rainfall reported in September, surpassing the previous record of 161.4mm from 8 September, 2010.Indore also established a new monthly record for the highest-ever single-day rainfall by experiencing 171mm of rainfall within 24 hours ending at 8:30 am on 16 September, breaking the previous record of 169.8mm from 20 September, 1962.[caption id="attachment_13138662" align="alignnone" width="640"] Monsoon rains in September spreads wings after a dull performance in August[/caption]Mammoth rainfall occurred in many stations of Madhya Pradesh ending at 8:30 am on 16 September. The extreme rains in a short time period resulted in overflowing rivers and waterlogging in many cities of the state. The rainfall figures consist of very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall, with amounts exceeding 124mm only. Here are some notable rainfall figures:Bhimpur: 445.0mmBhainsdehi: 354.0mmRahatgaon: 286.0mmSonkatch: 273.0mmChicholi: 270.4mmDepalpur: 260.8mmMaheshwar: 258.0mmBajna: 256.0mmPachmarhi: 241.2mmPithampur: 238.0mmNagda: 237.0mmMultai: 210.4mmShahpur: 209.0mmBadnagar: 208.0mmNew Harsud: 205.0mmKhirkiya-arg: 204.0mmBareli: 202.0mmBetul: 197.2mmSeoni Malwa: 189.0mmKasarwad: 180.0mmSanwer: 178.0mmNarmadapuram: 177.6mmGautampura: 175.6mmAlot: 171.0mmIndore: 171.0mmHatpiplaya: 170.0mmBhikangaon: 169.0mmAmla: 169.0mmUdainagar: 168.9mmHarda: 168.5mmTimarni: 162.4mmHatod: 161.6mmPunasa Dam: 160.0mmBarod: 160.0mmBagli: 160.0mmGogawan: 156.0mmMhow: 156.0mmPetlawad: 152.6mmRaoti: 152.0mmKannod: 150.0mmPrabhat Pattan: 149.5mmBarwaha: 149.0mmAtner: 148.2mmMahidpur: 147.0mmBudhni: 143.0mmJharda: 141.0mmDhar-aws: 137.5mmShamgarh: 137.4mmJawar: 137.0mmKhalwa: 135.0mmKhargone: 135.0mmKhandwa: 135.0mmSatwas: 130.0mmSanawad: 130.0mmRehti: 129.6mmBadnawar: 125.0mmSailana: 125.0mm[caption id="attachment_13138682" align="alignnone" width="640"] Daily mean rainfall saw a growth in the past week as above normal rains occurred pan India[/caption]In the Southern Peninsula, Chennai Airport recorded 34mm of rainfall ending at 8:30am on Sunday morning, bringing its seasonal total to 823mm. In all likelihood, this is the 3rd highest rainfall in the last 200 years during the southwest monsoon season. Meanwhile, Nungambakkam, another weather observatory in Chennai city recorded 646mm for the season."As of 17 September, the seasonal rainfall in India stands at 741.4 mm, compared to the normal average of 806.8 mm. The departure from the normal average is -8 per cent, which has improved from the previous week's -10 per cent by 2 per cent.Subdivision-wise seasonal rainfall from 1 June to 17 September, 2023, is as follows:Southern Peninsula: Actual rainfall 576.9 mm against the average of 643.2 mm, with a -10% departure from the normal average.East & North East India: Actual rainfall 989.3 mm against the average of 1253.2 mm, with a -21% departure from the normal average.North West India: Actual rainfall 563.2 mm against the average of 558.5 mm, with a +1% departure from the normal average.Central India: Actual rainfall 882.7 mm against the average of 917.8 mm, with a -4% departure from the normal average.[caption id="attachment_13138692" align="alignnone" width="640"] Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall in India from 1 June till 17 September, 2023[/caption]Current synoptic weather features influencing weather in India as of 17 September, 2023:

• The well-marked low-pressure area over Southeast Rajasthan and adjoining West Madhya Pradesh is now seen as a low-pressure area over the same region, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 7.6 km above mean sea level. It is likely to gradually move over southwest Rajasthan during the next two days.
• The Monsoon Trough at mean sea level now passes through Jaisalmer, the centre of the low-pressure area over Southeast Rajasthan, adjoining West Madhya Pradesh, Sagar, Daltonganj, Jamshedpur, Digha, and then extends east-southeastwards to the Northeast Bay of Bengal.
• The Western Disturbance, as a trough in middle-tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level, roughly along Long. 69°E to the north of Lat. 28°N, persists.
• The cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea and its neighbourhood persists and is observed between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level.
• The cyclonic circulation over Punjab and its neighbourhood, at 0.9 km above mean sea level, has become less marked.

All India weather forecast until 24 September, 2023:The monsoon is not yet ready to start retreating. Normally, it begins withdrawing from western Rajasthan around 15 September, but this year, it will take more time to initiate the process.In the coming week, the Bay of Bengal will not generate any low-pressure area, but the existing weather system over Gujarat will linger in the region for another two days. Additionally, the axis of the monsoon will remain nearly over central and northern India, with limited movement. This is a positive sign for rainfall in India, even without any tropical weather system.From 18 to 14 September, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. These states and union territories are likely to experience moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms for at least 3 to 4 days during the week.Below-normal rains are predicted for Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi NCR, Chandigarh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. These states and union territories are expected to receive light to moderate rains for only 1 to 3 days in the upcoming week.What does the monsoon performance look like in the last week of September?While it's indicated that the Bay of Bengal might not host any low-pressure area in the current week, there are fair indications of it forming in the last week of September or early October. With no major change in trajectory expected, it can be anticipated to move inland and affect various states in India. There is certainly another spell of monsoon rains and deluge expected for central parts of the country.Monsoon withdrawal is likely to be significantly delayed this year and September appears to be ending with normal rainfall patterns.The writer, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.  Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News,India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.