The perils of overreach in Netanyahu’s war strategy

At first glance, Benjamin Netanyahu seemed to have achieved what few Israeli leaders could dream of. In the aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attack; he transformed national trauma into a relentless military campaign that decimated Hamas and Hezbollah and carried the confrontation to Iran’s doorstep. For nearly two years, Netanyahu appeared politically and militarily unassailable. Yet it may have been at the height of his success that the Israeli Prime Minister overreached. Repeated victories fostered a sense of strategic invincibility and an ever-expanding set of objectives whose political and diplomatic costs are proving increasingly difficult to manage.

The Iran war, which Netanyahu appears to have presented to Donald Trump as a short, decisive campaign, did not unfold as expected. Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, raised the spectre of an economic shock. Faced with rising energy prices and inflation ahead of the midterm elections, Trump has shown little appetite for an open-ended conflict. A tentative peace deal has been signed, and US Vice President JD Vance travelled to Switzerland for talks with Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also took part. But much will depend on implementation by both sides.

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The US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) is a nightmare document for Israel. By linking Lebanon and Israel’s war against Hezbollah to the peace deal, Netanyahu is being asked to stop his war in Beirut. Driven by early successes, Netanyahu’s ambitions grew. Egged on by hardline, religious and ultra-nationalist cabinet colleagues like Bezalel Smotrich, his finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, the Biblical prophecy of a Greater Israel began to loom large. Israel was positioning itself as the pre-eminent power in the region and ready to take on the theocratic regime in Tehran.

In the first two days of the February 28 war, with the decapitation of the Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it seemed a distant possibility. But that dream was short-lived. Iran showed remarkable resilience in fighting back and thwarted the attempt at regime change. Instead, the regime appears stronger, and people have rallied round the flag, for now.

Israel has lost much in the last few months, despite its military success. The IDF’s “genocidal” campaign in Gaza has led to the loss of international goodwill. Its stature as an enlightened Western democracy has also been tarnished by its conduct of the war. The targeting of children, aid workers and journalists in Gaza has eroded the sympathy of young people around the world.

While international opinion may not matter to Israel, the fact that support for Israel has declined even in the US is a matter of concern. Powerful MAGA voices such as Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and many others are exposing the powerful Jewish lobby in the US. Carlson has often asked pro-Israeli lawmakers like Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton and others why their loyalty is first to Israel and not to their electorate in the US.

Even in the United States, Israel’s staunchest ally, public support has weakened. A Pew survey in April found that 60 per cent of Americans held an unfavourable view of Israel and had little confidence in Netanyahu’s handling of foreign affairs.

US support is crucial for Israel’s defence as well as for diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council, where America regularly vetoes resolutions against Israel. No Israeli leader, including Netanyahu, can fight a war without US backing. It is well known that the US expended considerable resources guarding Israel during the war and, in the bargain, Washington’s Gulf allies were left without protection from Iranian missiles. Israel derives much of its strength from American support, and no Israeli leader, including Netanyahu, can afford to antagonise Trump.

Israel’s military prowess is undisputed, but Netanyahu’s political endgame in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran remains unclear. Israel cannot sustain perpetual wars indefinitely. Its armed forces are stretched and its international standing has suffered. His best bet is to nix the US-Iran deal. The Israeli lobby has been activated, and there is criticism of the MoU from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers.

With Israeli elections due by September or October, and corruption charges awaiting him if he loses office, Netanyahu’s political survival is increasingly tied to developments beyond his control.

(Seema Guha is a journalist who has extensively covered foreign policy and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)