Hasina’s homecoming: Strategy, resolve or political gamble?

Former prime minister Sheikh Hasina has set the cat among the pigeons by her assertion that she and some of her senior leaders are planning to return to Bangladesh by year-end. With a special tribunal handing a death sentence in absentia hanging on her head, why in the world would she do that and walk into the jaws of death? She has been tried for crimes against humanity for her government's violent crackdown on the student-led protests that led to the overthrow of her 15-year rule.

Is this a trial balloon?

Her interview with Reuters sent shock waves in political and diplomatic circles in Dhaka and New Delhi. No one is clear about the motive. Was the interview with Reuters last week a trial balloon to gauge the reaction among people in Bangladesh? Or was it an attempt to assuage the sentiments of Awami League cadres, who are rudderless with most top leaders out of the country? Is she hoping to revive the Awami League despite the ban on the party and political work? Even grassroots activities are not possible at the moment in a hostile environment. Public anger against the Awami League's misrule has not dissipated. Cadres continue to face political harassment.

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Perhaps Sheikh Hasina believes that the political environment could become more favourable over the next few months. More likely because Bangladesh was liberated on the 16th of December, 1971.

Could her return alter the political calculations of the BNP-led government or India's approach? Dhaka has, several times, asked New Delhi to hand her over, without success. New Delhi had so far not obliged, though sheltering her has naturally queered the pitch with the anti-Hasina forces in Dhaka.

"There might be pressure from the host, and the guest has responded with this statement of intention. Secondly, the rather insane demand to kill her might be losing steam. Prime Minister Tariq Rehman might not like to be known to history as the executioner of a political opponent," says retired ambassador KP Fabian. Adding, "Ergo, Hasina does not fear any guillotine."

Bangladesh has welcomed the announcement. But Home Minister Salahuddin Ahmed made it clear that Sheikh Hasina would be arrested the moment she stepped on Bangladeshi soil and the verdict against her executed according to law. But despite the public statements, the BNP government knows that could spell problems and galvanise the Awami League. The fissures within Bangladeshi society would appear in full force. Hasina is now a polarising figure, and executing the death penalty risks the potential of civil strife.

There is also speculation that perhaps the Modi government is gently trying to persuade her to leave. Could Delhi be trying to broker a deal with the BNP so she can return home and the air is cleared for ties between India and Bangladesh to get a fresh start? But Dhaka insiders believe that relations between India and Bangladesh are not at a stage where New Delhi can play such a role. Despite a promising start to relations after Tarique Rahman took office, he has not yet come to India on an official visit. For decades since independence, Bangladeshi leaders, including the BNP, had made New Delhi their first foreign visit after taking office. Rahman went to Malaysia instead and then on to China.

There are some who are wondering if China has a role in Sheikh Hasina’s decision. But that makes little sense, simply because the BNP has excellent ties with Beijing, much as Sheikh Hasina did. China gets no benefit from an arrangement where it helps New Delhi get rid of an irritant that has bogged down ties with Dhaka. China is not going to be involved in making things easier for India in Bangladesh.

Sheikh Hasina’s move to return home may be entirely her personal decision, taken after careful consideration.

"It could be that Sheikh Hasina has come to the conclusion that she would rather return to her homeland and ensure that her father’s legacy is not wiped out and the party responsible for the liberation of Bangladesh does not disappear," says Smruti S Pattanaik, a Research Fellow at the New Delhi-based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA). “For the Awami League to survive, she has to go back,” Pattanaik adds.

(Seema Guha is a journalist who has extensively covered foreign policy and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)