Great-power flux and regional challenges reshape India’s strategic calculus

While global geopolitics is mired in uncertainty, a new kind of geopolitical development is emerging in the form of US-China interaction and the strengthening of Russia-China relations. The interaction among these three power centres will alter both global and regional geopolitics. India, as an emerging global power, is cautiously watching new geopolitical threads.

The recent three-day visit of US President Donald Trump (May 12-15), as well as President Vladimir Putin's visit (May 19-20), to China provided a new context for understanding and analysing both global and regional geopolitics. The visit of President Trump occurred during a critical phase of global geopolitics, marked by tumultuous changes in both global and Asian geopolitics. The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war for the last four years, the protracted conflict in West Asia since 2023, and the recent flare-up of conflict between Iran and the US are not only leading the world into a state of geopolitical crisis but also into a state of economic recession. At the same time, Russia-China relations entered a new phase, particularly to counter the US's unilateral dominance in global geopolitics and to meet Beijing's energy needs despite historical mistrust.

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The present analysis provides a context for examining the geopolitical dynamics of Russia-US-China relations and their broader repercussions on global and regional geopolitics. At the same time, it is necessary to examine how India views the nature of interaction among these three powers.

US-China Relations

Trump's recent visit to China marked a new phase in relations between the two countries. In this regard, it may be noted that the bilateral relations between the US and China took a U-turn when the Kosovo bombing took place at the Chinese embassy by the NATO forces in 1999. The sharp U-turn led to a tectonic shift in global and Asian security. Over the years, what US analysts perceive as the “rise of China” will pose a substantial challenge to the US's attempt at global leadership. The loggerhead between the two is evident in a series of geopolitical tensions across the world. Strategic analysts believe the US-China face-off occurred in Asia, Africa, Latin America, Europe, and Eurasia. For instance, the stationing of both Chinese and US troops in Latin America and Africa for control of resources resulted in the escalation of the conflict. This is evident in Sudan's partition, which led to the emergence of South Sudan as a new country. One of the major factors that propelled the partition was the loggerhead between the Chinese and Americans over control of energy resources.

The same is true of Venezuela, where the growing Chinese presence annoyed the US, which considered it a threat to its national security. This resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is undergoing detention in the US. Similarly, in West Asia, China is also inching towards strengthening its presence through its Belt and Road project, which is generating uneasiness for the US, which considers it its own strategic space. In this context, China’s strategy of roping in Iran for its own strategic hedging generates uneasiness for the US. The same can be evident from the fact that the US administration repeatedly blamed China for its war with Israel in 2023, as well as in the present war between Iran and the US. China views Iran’s energy reserves as a major prize and control over Hormuz as the best option for securing energy.

Trump’s China Visit

To have a proper understanding of the nature of the implications of Trump's visit to China, there is a need to re-examine the relations in a historical context. A cursory glance at relations between the US and China shows they have slipped, especially after 1997. The present visit of President Trump can be seen in this context. Though both countries agreed to "build a constructive relationship of strategic stability on the basis of fairness and reciprocity”, the moot point is that there are certain core geopolitical issues, including Taiwan, that will be a deterrent to the ties. The reported move by the White House to sell arms to Taiwan has irked the Chinese side. Though Xi Jinping gave a call for building a "constructive partnership”, what one can infer here is that apart from Taiwan, another key point of divergence is the trade and tariff issue, as well as the question of nuclear weapons. At the same time, China’s engagement with North Korea is a source of anxiety for the US.

Thus, the missing link of the bilateral relationship is the word "constructive", though both sides are giving due note to this aspect in their engagement. One may add that despite Trump’s visit to China, the most contentious issue remains trade and tariffs, which remain unresolved and will affect the nature of bilateral relations. The other bilateral issues that will affect the state of the relationship between the two sides are the high tariffs on agricultural products in the Chinese market, issues related to critical minerals, and technological issues. It may be noted that some of the issues discussed above posed major threats to bilateral relations between the two countries. The acrimony between the two reached its height when China, which banned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, called him by a Chinese name, Marco Lu. This shows that China has no intention of lifting the sanctions on Rubio, which bar him from entering China. This reflects that China has no intention of mending fences with the US despite Trump’s visit. Similarly, soon after his visit to China, Trump expressed his intention to talk to the president of Taiwan, William Lai Ching-te, after his return to the US.

In a nutshell, the US president's visit to China has not yielded any tangible results. The fault lines are still there, though both China and the US are trying to find common ground. One major concern for the US is addressing the core issue of the trade imbalance with China. The tariff measures the Trump administration is initiating will also affect bilateral relations between the two. It is in this background that one can see the bilateral relations between Russia and China.

Russia-China Relations

Just like the US, which harps on raising the Taiwan and trade issues with China, which to a great extent derail the bilateral relations, similarly, China’s relations with Russia are one of the major bones of contention with the US. In the post-Soviet Eurasian space, the game is murkier, as Russia, the preponderant power in this space, is also cooperating with China to checkmate the US in some instances. An apt case is during the present Russia-Ukraine war, when China is providing support to Russia. The reason is two-fold: China is more interested in Russia's hydrocarbon reserves, and, as per an article published by The Guardian, China imported “$367 billion” of energy from Russia since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war. This shows the extent of China's dependency on Russia. Similarly, Chinese policymakers knew that Russia's vast geography posed a stumbling block to NATO’s expansion. At the same time, a weakened Russia will put China in a more vulnerable position in the long run.

Nature of Russia-China Interaction

Despite apprehensions about their bilateral relations, Russia and China are trying to foster strategic engagement. One of the major factors that brings Moscow and Beijing together is their opposition to the unilateral dominance of the US. Both are apprehensive of the US move. The Ukrainian crisis, in fact, gave a strong message to both Russia and China from the US and NATO forces. So, China’s dependence on energy and critical minerals for sustaining its economy. Similarly, Russia and the post-Soviet space will be critical to augmenting China’s infrastructure connectivity projects. In this context, the relationship between these two countries is transactional, like the US-China relations. The visit of President Vladimir Putin immediately after Trump’s visit to China reflects the nature of the relationship between these two countries.

Unlike Trump’s visit to China, which could not significantly reshape the strategic equation between the two countries, Putin’s visit took place amidst the Iran-US war and the fierce competition to control the strategic chokepoint, Hormuz. Another aspect that needs to be mentioned here is that both China and Russia have significant stakes in Iran, and it is well known that these three countries, over time, pose a substantial challenge to US unilateralism. At the same time, it may be underlined here that China, along with Russia, is keen to secure Iran’s strategic preponderance in the Strait of Hormuz. As they consider it the first step towards checkmating the US’s entry into this part of the world. In addition, China considers the Strait of Hormuz a major transit point for securing its energy supply.

One of the major factors driving bonhomie between Russia and China is bilateral trade. In fact, both countries trade, reaching more than 200 billion dollars both in 2024 and 2025, as per the data published by the German-based Mercator Institute for China Studies. This demonstrates the nature of bonhomie between these two countries in the economic realm, despite pursuing different courses of action on both bilateral and global issues. The European sanctions have, in fact, proved to be a blessing in disguise for both countries in terms of bilateral trade. Similarly, as discussed above, energy constitutes the backbone of Russia-China relations in recent years, especially after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.

It is also true that China poses a substantial challenge to Russia’s long-term security. There is historical context to this, as there was a rivalry between the two. Similarly, Russia still considers the post-Soviet space its own strategic backyard, and China’s inroads into it are generating some anxiety among Russian policymakers. This is what the “Great Game 3.0” is in the post-Soviet space.

Strategic Implications of Trump’s China Visit

While assessing the visits of both Russian and American presidents to China, three important inferences can be drawn. These are :

a) While Trump is trying to mend fences with China, especially seeking Beijing’s support for the US efforts in the context of its war with Iran. At best, the US wants China to maintain neutrality, recognising that both China and Iran have deeper strategic cooperation.

b) The US under Trump's leadership is more interested in giving a lift to trade cooperation with China to improve the trade balance.

c) The US leadership is trying to bring China under its sphere of influence just to further isolate Russia. This can be studied in the context of the famous ping-pong diplomacy, which Henry Kissinger initiated in 1971 to engage with China. In fact, these efforts of Kissinger paved the way for a robust Sino-US partnership.

While the US has deeper strategic and trade interests in engaging with China, the same holds true for Russia as well. President Putin's visit to China, just after Trump’s, underscored the strategic ties between Russia and China.

Implications of President Putin’s visit to China

In a nutshell, it can be underlined here that Russia's interest in its engagement with China can be summarised as follows:

a) There is a considerable view in the Russian foreign policy-making circles that the only way to deal with the hegemonic policy of the US is to align with China.

b) Ties with China helped Russia to export its defence equipment as well as other ancillary products associated with the defence industry. This helps Russia to earn enough foreign exchange to tide over the present financial crisis.

c) Along with defence, China is also emerging as a major market for Russian oil and gas. China has been importing a large share of its oil and gas from Russia, especially since 1995. However, the recent sanctions imposed by Europe on Russia’s energy are proving to be a boon for it. In this context, China is a major beneficiary of the EU’s sanctions.

d) Russia is also engaging with China in keeping its strategic interest in the post-Soviet space. It is true that both countries share a common approach to quell the US’s hegemonic interests in global geopolitics, but in the post-Soviet space, Russia has a deep-rooted apprehension of China’s moves, which Moscow considers its own sphere of influence. The rapid move of China in this geopolitical space, especially its dominance in the energy sector and quiet expansion through its One Belt and One Road (OBOR), poses a subtle challenge to Russia. In this context, Russia is interested in quietly engaging China to minimise its influence in the post-Soviet space.

Russia-China and China-US relations in the context of global geopolitics reflect deep strategic uncertainty. This strategic uncertainty stems from both China's and the US's desire to control global geopolitics. The competition can be seen in varied forms, ranging from controlling chokepoints, sea lanes, and resources in different parts of the world. In this context, Russia is playing an important role in checkmating its present rival, the US, as well as its historical rival, China.

Indian Perspective

While there are greater uncertainty and a quagmire in global geopolitics, the interaction among China, the US and Russia is generating much debate and apprehension for both Asian and global security. In this context, it is necessary to underline that India, as a major global power, is responding to emerging geopolitical dynamics. It is true that, like China, India has also been affected by the ongoing war between Iran and the US and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As the Strait is considered an important chokepoint for securing energy from West Asia. It is a known fact that China, in nexus with Pakistan, is posing a security challenge to India. At the same time, India shares a strong strategic bonhomie with Russia. On the other hand, with the US, the relationship is smooth despite a few minor geopolitical and trade-related issues. Trump's visit to China certainly raised apprehension in India about the US-China geopolitical rapprochement, as India and the US engaged in a Quad format with Japan and Australia aimed at checking Chinese hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region. Though President Trump has called India a “friend”, Washington’s reengagement with China, as well as with its Cold War traditional ally Pakistan, generates a strong apprehension about the US’s move. The US's strategic posturing also prompts one to wonder whether it's pursuing a Cold War-era geopolitical tactic of wooing both China and Pakistan against India.

Through the Quad Foreign Ministers Summit, which took place in New Delhi in the aftermath of Trump's visit to China and identified key areas of cooperation like "Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration (IPMSC)”, "Supply Chain Resilience”, “Infrastructural Development”, etc, the moot point that remains unresolved is the US’s commitment to the Quad in view of its tactical engagement with China. This also questions the efficacy of Quad in contemporary Indo-Pacific geopolitics. Along with this, the core question of trade and tariff issues remains unresolved. Though the US has committed to strengthening its ties in critical minerals, technology, and trade with India, the question is how far it will go to fulfil its commitments under these pacts. Time will only tell about the US move.

President Putin’s visit to China did not create much of a flutter, as it was a routine visit. At the same time, Russia, despite its engagement with China in recent years, has always been committed to its deep-rooted strategic cooperation with India. In this context, Russian policymakers, even in the past, supported India by supplying defence equipment. It may be recalled here that during the Galwan crisis, Russia supported India by providing S-400 missiles. Similarly, India supports Russia’s endeavour to establish a multi-polar world order and to democratise international institutions. Russia also supports India’s policy of strategic autonomy. Another facet that needs attention here is that energy is emerging as a key component in India-Russia relations. This provides the necessary trust in the bilateral relationship.

Thus, it can be argued that the Russian President’s visit to China does not create much flutter. On the other hand, Trump’s visit to China sparked intense debate among policy analysts about the likely trajectory of US-China strategic relations and its impact on the future of India-US relations.

Conclusion

Global geopolitics, which has been in a state of flux for a couple of years, reached a crisis point when the US-Iran war erupted. The US-Iran war reached a crisis stage when the war erupted in and around the Strait of Hormuz, considered to be a chokepoint in transporting energy to the international market. In this context, the intensification of war between Iran and the US altered both regional and global geopolitics. The visit of President Trump and President Putin to China in May 2026 occurred against the backdrop of the prolonged war and the Taiwan Strait crisis. The visits, though, signal a new geopolitical shift, especially in the context of the US-China deal. However, the moot point is whether relations between these two countries can be sustainable given their lack of convergence on several geopolitical issues.

Another important aspect to underline here is that the US administration's move to engage China geopolitically will have wider ramifications. This move by Trump raises the US’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific security architecture. At the same time, Russia is attempting to engage with India pragmatically. The robustness of bilateral relations between India and Russia is growing day by day. On the other hand, Russia and China relations are largely marked by transactional elements, historical mistrust, and an uncertain future.

(The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)