Why is the US govt at risk of another shutdown? What happens next?

The United States government is just days away from yet another shutdown.The government is set to run out of money on 30 September with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy unable to corral his forces in the House.Far-right conservatives, cheered on by Donald Trump seem determined to seize control and have challenged the authority of the House Speaker.But what happened exactly? And why is this happening? And what comes next?Let’s take a closer look:What happened?Far-right Republicans in the House have dealt a crippling blow to McCarthy’s attempts to keep the government open.On Thursday, a handful of Republican hardliners blocked a typically popular defence bill from advancing — the second time this week it was set back and an unheard-of loss for a House Speaker.This comes in the backdrop of lawmakers set to leave town for the weekend.

As per Bloomberg, this would be the 11^th US shutdown since 1980.

McCarthy, whose latest funding plan has been left in ruins, has repeatedly tried to appease his hard-right flank by agreeing to the steep spending cuts they are demanding to keep government open.But cheered on by Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner for president in 2024, the hardliners have all but seized control in dramatic fashion.Even a stopgap bill to keep government funding past the Sept. 30 deadline, called a continuing resolution or CR, is a non-starter for some on the right flank who have essentially seized control of the House.“This is a whole new concept of individuals who just want to burn the whole place down,” McCarthy said after Thursday’s vote, acknowledging he was frustrated. “It doesn’t work.”The open revolt was further evidence that McCarthy’s strategy of repeatedly giving in to the conservatives is seemingly only emboldening them, allowing them to run roughshod over their own House majority. Their conservative bills have almost no chance in the Senate.McCarthy’s bid to move ahead with a traditionally popular defence funding bill as a first step toward keeping the government running was shattered, on a vote of 212-216. Five Republicans refused to vote with the increasingly endangered speaker. A sixth Republican voted no on procedural grounds so the bill could be reconsidered.Moving forward with the defence bill was supposed to be a way for McCarthy to build goodwill among the GOP House majority as he tries to pass a temporary measure just to keep government running for another month. It, too, had catered to other hard-right priorities, such as slashing spending by eight per cent from many services and bolstering security at the U.S.-Mexico border.McCarthy had pledged to keep lawmakers in session this weekend for as long as it took to finish their work. But they were sent home, told they could be called back on ample notice.Many Republicans were starting to speak up more forcefully against their hard-right colleagues.New York Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a swing district, said he would not “be party to a shutdown.”“There needs to be a realization that you’re not going to get everything you want,” he said. “Just throwing a temper tantrum and stomping your feet — frankly, not only is it wrong — it’s just pathetic.”Why is this happening?At its core, House Republicans are trying to undo the deal McCarthy reached with Biden earlier this year to set federal funding levels as part of the debt ceiling fight. Conservatives rejected that measure then, even though it was approved and signed into law, and they are trying to dismantle it now.Many on the right flank had opposed the deal McCarthy struck with Biden this year over the spending levels and are now trying to dismantle it.They want to see progress on the individual appropriations bills that would fund the various federal departments at the lower levels these lawmakers are demanding.One of Trump’s top allies, Representative Matt Gaetz, who is leading the hard-right flank, said the House Republicans now have almost no choices left but to spend the time it takes to pass each of the 12 spending bills needed to fund the government —- typically a laborious process — even if it means going into a shutdown.[caption id="attachment_13066372" align="alignnone" width="640"] Donald Trump has cheered on Republican hardliners in the House.[/caption]What Gaetz said he, and several others, would not do is vote for a continuing resolution that fails to slash spending.“I’m giving a eulogy for the CR right now,” Gaetz told reporters after a late afternoon meeting at the Capitol.“I represent Florida’s first congressional district, where during the shutdown tens of thousands of people will go without a paycheck, and so I know the impact of a shutdown,” Gaetz said. “So it may get worse before it gets better, and I have little to offer but blood, sweat, toil and tears, but that may be what it takes.”

The far-right conservatives are also being emboldened by the former president – who has revenge on his mind.

Trump has urged Republican hardliners to hold the line against the higher funding levels McCarthy had agreed to with President Joe Biden earlier this year and to end the federal criminal indictments against him.“This is also the last chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other Patriots,” Trump wrote on social media.“They failed on the debt limit, but they must not fail now. Use the power of the purse and defend the Country!” the former president wrote.“We need the extreme MAGA Republicans to get their act together,” said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York, referring to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan.“End the civil war,” Jeffries urged the Republicans. “Get your act together.”But some others see an opportunity to hurt McCarthy.Freshmen Representive Victoria Spartz pointedly attacked McCarthy as a “weak speaker.”When Spartz was asked whether she would support an effort to oust McCarthy, she said she was “open to everything.”Bloomberg quoted Representative Matt Rosendale of Montana as calling McCarthy’s spending bill “a continuation of Nancy Pelosi’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies.”McCarthy could reach out to Democrats to strike a bipartisan deal.But that would almost certainly lead McCarthy’s right-flank to try to hold a vote to oust him from his much-coveted Speaker’s job.Republican hardliners are also upset about US aid to Ukraine.Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a chief opponent of more aid for Ukraine in the war against Russia, said she voted against the defence bill this time because her party’s leadership refused to separate out the war money.Her stand came as Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was at the Capitol during a high-profile visit to Washington.What comes next?A government closure is increasingly likely as time runs out for Congress to act.The White House and Democrats, along with some Republicans, warn that a shutdown would be devastating for people who rely on their government for everyday services and would undermine America’s standing in the world.Business Insider quoted a White House memo as warning that the military could go without pay, fewer childcare options would be available, TSA officers and air controllers being furloughed could cause travel snafus and infrastructure projects would be delayed.[caption id="attachment_12832182" align="alignnone" width="640"] The White House has warned that a shutdown undermine America's standing in the world.[/caption]The White House will tell federal agencies on Friday to prepare for a shutdown, according to an official with the Office of Management and Budget who insisted on anonymity to discuss the upcoming instructions.That’s standard seven days out from a federal disruption.

Experts say those employed by the government and those that rely on federal services will likely suffer the most.

“If you’re a government worker, it’s highly disruptive – whether you’re not going to work or whether you are,” Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organisation told CNN.“If you’re somebody who wants to use one of the services that you can’t get access to … it’s highly disruptive. But for many people … all the things that they are expecting and used to seeing of government are still happening and the inconveniences and the kind of wasted time and wasted resources aren’t things that they see and feel directly.”The United States has had periods of shutdown before, including a 35-day stretch from late 2018 to early 2019 under former president Donald Trump – the longest in US history.

A shutdown this time could "leave a visible mark on the economy," said EY chief economist Gregory Daco this week.

He estimates that "each week of government shutdown will cost the US economy $6 billion," and trim GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points in the fourth quarter."Apart from the direct macroeconomic consequences of a shutdown, financial markets and private sector confidence could also be affected," he said.The US Chamber of Commerce issued a memo Monday to the business community warning that a prolonged shutdown could cause disruptions across the country.“Individuals and businesses rely on the discretionary functions of government on a daily basis,” the Chamber wrote. “From passports and permits to clinical trials and contractors, a well-functioning economy requires a functioning government.”The Biden administration is also highlighting the potential damage from a funding stoppage. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on CNBC Monday, “We’ve got a good, strong economy and creating a situation that could cause a loss of momentum is something we don’t need.”One seasoned Republican lawmaker, Representative Steve Womack, warned the infighting could derail the House GOP, much the way it did for past speakers like John Boehner and Paul Ryan. Both retired earlier than expected amid constant threats of ousters.Womack said he fears there is a “larger fight” brewing “that is more of a personality nature because of the conflict between certain members and the speaker.”

Worse, Republicans have to contend with the weight of history.

As per Bloomberg, proponents of shutdowns have a truly unenviable record when it comes to producing the results they desire – currently 0 for 10.The impasse could also have repercussions on the war in Ukraine, with the White House seeking for any budget bill passed by lawmakers to include $24 billion in military and humanitarian aid for Kyiv.This comes as US president Joe Biden is due to meet with Zelensky in Washington later in the week."At the very same time that President Zelensky comes to the United States to make the case for standing firm against (Russian President Vladimir Putin), Republican leadership in the House of Representatives are essentially telling him 'You're on your own'," said Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.With inputs from agencies