From 'Taco' to 'Nacho': Why Wall Street has a new acronym for Donald Trump

Another acronym has emerged and US President Donald Trump may not be happy to hear this one too.

Tensions with Iran continue to disrupt global energy flows, prompting traders and analysts to begin using the term “Nacho”.

The label, coined within trading circles and publicised by Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas on X, signals a shift in how markets interpret the Trump administration’s approach — not just toward tariffs, as was the case with the earlier “Taco” acronym,

The term “Nacho”expands to “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens,”  and is understood to have originated from a financial trader observing the prolonged disruption in maritime traffic through the Strait.

Blas highlighted the phrase in a post on X on Wednesday, noting its connection to earlier trader slang. “We thought we were getting a Taco, ‘Trump Always Chickens Out.’ But so far we are getting a Nacho, ‘Not A Chance Hormuz Opens,’” he wrote.

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The earlier acronym — “Taco,” short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” — had gained traction among investors during periods of volatility linked to US trade policy.

It was first popularised by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, who identified a recurring pattern by Trump: strong policy announcements, particularly on tariffs, that unsettled markets, followed by reversals or softening that triggered rebounds.

Wall Street participants adapted that observation into a trading strategy, buying assets after policy shocks and selling once positions stabilised following policy retreats. The term became shorthand for what investors saw as a predictable cycle of escalation and retreat.

The emergence of “Nacho,” however, reflects a fundamentally different situation. Unlike tariff disputes, the current crisis involves military confrontation, energy supply chains, and the risk of broader regional escalation.

In this context, the new acronym suggests that market participants are no longer anticipating quick reversals or negotiated de-escalation.

How the Strait of Hormuz has been brought to a halt

The Strait of Hormuz has long been one of the most strategically significant waterways in the world, acting as a transit point for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Before the current conflict, it was among the busiest energy shipping routes globally, connecting producers in West Asia to consumers across the rest of Asia, Europe, and beyond.

That flow has been severely disrupted since late February, when US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory measures from Tehran. In response, Iran effectively halted maritime traffic through the channel, while the United States imposed a blockade targeting Iranian oil exports.

The result has been a near standstill in shipping activity through the Strait, with tankers unable to pass and energy markets thrown into turmoil. The disruption has reverberated far beyond the region, affecting global supply chains.

Iran has indicated that it could restore access to the waterway under certain conditions, including the lifting of the US blockade and adjustments to the sequencing of negotiations over its nuclear programme.

However, Washington has rejected such proposals unless Tehran meets its demands regarding uranium enrichment. Despite a ceasefire arrangement, both sides remain entrenched in their positions, prolonging the impasse.

How oil prices are surging

The closure of the Strait has had a dramatic impact on global oil prices. Benchmark Brent crude has risen sharply, at one point surpassing $125 per barrel and reaching levels not seen in more than four years.

The price surge has been driven both by the immediate supply disruption and by fears that the conflict could continue to constrain energy flows for an extended period.

Data indicates that Brent prices have more than doubled since the conflict began on February 28, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude has also seen significant gains, rising by around 90 per cent.

At one stage, Brent touched an intraday high of $126.41, its highest level since March 2022.

These increases have pushed fuel prices higher across multiple markets, including in the United States, where the cost of gasoline has climbed to levels that have not been seen since 2022.

The impact has extended to inflation, with higher energy costs feeding into broader price pressures globally.

Analysts have warned that continued disruption could drive prices even higher. Some market observers have suggested that oil could approach $150 per barrel if the situation deteriorates further.

How diplomatic efforts are faltering

Efforts to resolve the crisis through diplomacy have repeatedly stalled. A planned round of negotiations involving key figures from both sides was called off by the Trump administration, reflecting scepticism about the prospects for immediate progress.

The meeting was expected to include US envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. However, the US president decided against proceeding with the trip.

“I see no point of sending them on an 18-hour flight in the current situation. It’s too long. We can do it just as well by telephone,” Trump told Axios last week. “The Iranians can call us if they want. We are not gonna travel just to sit there.”

The cancellation highlighted the lack of momentum in diplomatic channels, even as both sides continued to exchange messages through intermediaries.

At the same time, Washington has sought to build international support for restoring navigation through the Strait. According to reports, the United States has approached other countries to form a coalition aimed at ensuring freedom of passage in the waterway.

Trump has also issued warnings to Iran, including a post that stated, “They don't know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They'd better get smart soon!” The message was accompanied by an AI-generated image depicting the president in a militarised pose.

Iran, for its part, has warned of “unprecedented military action” if the US continues its blockade of Iranian-linked vessels.

How Trump is dealing with domestic pressure

Rising fuel prices have historically been a sensitive issue for voters, and the current surge comes at a time when economic concerns are already prominent as midterms in the United States approach.

The administration has taken steps to engage with industry leaders, with Trump holding discussions with oil and gas executives to assess the situation and explore measures to mitigate the impact on consumers.

According to a White House official, the talks included discussions on “the steps President Trump has taken to alleviate global oil markets and steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimise impact on American consumers.”

Despite these efforts, the trajectory of prices remains closely tied to developments in the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the scope for domestic policy interventions.

With inputs from agencies