Will DMK and AIADMK join hands in Tamil Nadu? What then for Vijay’s TVK?

It has been four days since the Tamil Nadu Assembly election results were declared. However, there is no clarity yet as to which alliance will form the government in the state. While actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party, it failed to reach the majority mark of 118 in the 234-member House.

As Vijay’s party intensifies efforts to stitch up a coalition to form the government, reports claim that arch rivals — the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — are also mulling coming together to keep the TVK out of power.

Let’s take a closer look.

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TVK hunts for allies

The TVK secured 108 seats in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, 10 short of the magic number.

The Congress, which won five seats, has extended support to Vijay’s party on the condition that the alliance keep out any “communal forces that do not believe in the Constitution of India”.

Vijay, who won from two seats in the elections, will have to vacate one, leaving the party with 107 MLAs.

The TVK has sought the support of Left parties and other DMK allies, including the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). All these political parties won two seats each in the recent Assembly elections.

However, they have not given a firm commitment yet.

Tamil Nadu Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar, who has met Vijay twice since the results, has refused to allow the TVK chief to stake a claim to form the government, citing a lack of numbers.

Sources told NDTV that their second meeting on Thursday (May 7) ended with the governor asking Vijay to provide letters of support from 118 legislators.

A communique from Raj Bhavan said the governor "explained that the requisite majority support in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, essential for forming the Government, has not been established".

Will DMK-AIADMK come together?

There are reports that the rivals, the DMK and the AIADMK, could come together to stop Vijay from forming the government.

However, for any such plan to come into effect, MK Stalin’s party will need to bring its allies — Left and the VCK — on board.

As per NDTV, Left is "deeply uncomfortable" forming an alliance with the AIADMK over its tie-up with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Sources in the DMK and the VCK have expressed unease over any "communal" party being part of the coalition. Thus, to ally with the AIADMK, Stalin’s party reportedly wants its rival to dump the BJP.

But not everyone in the DMK is comfortable joining hands with the AIADMK either.

The DMK, which won 59 seats, held a meeting of its leaders and MLA-elects on Thursday and passed a resolution, authorising its president Stalin to take "emergency decisions".

Outgoing Chief Minister Stalin told the attendees that he would make a decision with the party’s interests in mind, as per The New Indian Express (TNIE) report.

DMK deputy general secretary Kanimozhi was not present at the meeting as she is reportedly unhappy with the talks of a DMK-AIADMK alliance within the party.

Stalin is also against an alliance with the AIADMK. However, a section of younger leaders in the DMK, the camp of Udhayanidhi Stalin, is pushing for an alliance with the AIADMK.

This camp fears that if Vijay assumes power, he could be like MG Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, and it would be difficult to dislodge him. MGR did not let the DMK come to power as long as he was alive.

However, the older leaders of the DMK, including Stalin, fear that partnering with its arch-rival could lead to a massive public backlash.

A highly-placed source in the DMK told TNIE that the party is not ready to go into polls again in six months and would rather favour a stable government being formed.

“The DMK is not stopping the TVK from forming a government. In case it does not get the desired majority, we would not stake a claim, but we may support the AIADMK from the outside, in order to ensure a stable government,” the source told the newspaper.

As per the source, the DMK's decision would also depend on the two Left parties and VCK.

Describing the hung Assembly as a "complicated crisis", the DMK has reportedly asked all its MLAs to stay in Chennai until May 10.

Dravidian ideologues and leaders have reportedly approached the DMK leadership to express their opposition to extending support to the AIADMK.

“Left parties were not in favour of the idea. However, VCK leader Thirumavalavan discussed the pros and cons of such a scenario. In regard to extending support to the TVK, Stalin had asked them to take a call considering the need for a stable government,” another DMK source privy to the meeting told TNIE.

Meanwhile, the AIADMK has adopted a wait-and-watch approach. A section in the party is in favour of an alliance with the TVK. However, AIADMK general secretary and former Tamil Nadu CM Edappadi K Palaniswami, popularly known as EPS, has firmly ruled out such an alliance.

On Thursday evening, EPS reportedly told AIADMK MLAs that their party had no relation with Vijay’s party, asking them to wait for two more days.

Top DMK sources told NDTV that EPS could become CM, with the DMK considering offering outside support. It is also seeking ministerial berths for smaller allies like the VCK.

If this happens, all TVK MLAs could resign in protest.

Why BJP may favour rivals coming together

The BJP is interested in the AIADMK joining hands with the TVK to keep the Congress out of power.

As per an Indian Express report, senior AIADMK sources confirmed that the BJP high command in New Delhi is not keen on the TVK forming a government in Tamil Nadu in a coalition with the Congress, particularly after the Grand Old Party is set to return to power in neighbouring Kerala.

With inputs from agencies