Russia's missile blitz exposes Ukraine's air defence weakness: How serious is the crisis?

Russia's overnight barrage on Monday has once again spotlighted a challenge that Kyiv has repeatedly warned its Western partners about for months which is its dwindling supply of advanced air-defence interceptors, especially to defend against ballistic missile strikes.

The attack unfolded just hours before leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) gathered in Ankara, Turkey, for a high-stakes summit (July 7-8) expected to focus heavily on the war in Ukraine, European security as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges allies to make immediate decisions on supplying additional interceptor missiles.

Why has Ukraine's air-defence shortage become such a major concern?

According to Ukrainian military data, Russia launched one of its largest combined aerial attacks, employing hundreds of drones alongside dozens of missiles against Kyiv and surrounding regions.

Ukrainian air-defence units successfully intercepted more than 90 per cent of the 351 drones involved in the assault and also destroyed 37 additional missiles during the operation.

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However, the picture looked dramatically different when it came to ballistic weapons. Ukraine's military reported that it failed to shoot down any of the ballistic missiles launched during the attack.

Air force figures indicated that Russia fired 23 ballistic missiles in the overnight barrage, none of which were intercepted. Broader military figures from the same attack showed that Russia launched 68 missiles overall, including 29 ballistic missiles, all of which reached their intended targets.

Rather than reflecting shortcomings in the capabilities or training of Ukrainian air-defence personnel, officials say the results primarily illustrate an increasingly severe shortage of interceptor missiles capable of engaging ballistic threats.

The trend has become evident over recent weeks. Official Ukrainian air force statistics show that throughout July, the country's air-defence network has intercepted only four out of 49 incoming ballistic missiles.

What happened during Russia's latest attack on Ukraine?

The overnight strikes left widespread destruction across the Ukrainian capital and nearby areas, making it one of the deadliest attacks on Kyiv this year. Emergency officials said at least 28 people were killed during the assault.

As daylight broke, rescue workers continued searching collapsed residential buildings where many people remained trapped beneath layers of shattered concrete and twisted steel.

One of the worst-hit locations was a multi-storey residential building in Kyiv where the upper floors had been ripped apart during the bombardment. Emergency crews spent hours carefully removing debris while attempting to locate survivors and recover bodies.

The search operation extended well into the afternoon as heavy machinery and rescue personnel worked through unstable sections of the damaged structure.

Ukraine's Emergency Services later said at least 18 people had died in Kyiv itself as additional bodies were recovered during overnight rescue efforts. Prosecutors separately reported that another 10 people were killed elsewhere in the wider Kyiv region.

Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said nearly 30 buildings across Kyiv sustained significant damage during the attack.

Outside the capital, repeated explosions caused extensive destruction in residential neighbourhoods in Vyshneve, according to Ukraine's Emergency Services.

Officials in Ukraine's southeastern Zaporizhzhia region also said a Russian drone strike on a filling station killed two people later on Monday.

In the northeastern Sumy region, situated along Ukraine's border with Russia where Moscow has sought to establish a broader buffer zone, regional authorities also reported two deaths in separate Russian drone attacks.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha later disclosed rescue workers had recovered the bodies of an entire family — two parents and their child — from beneath the rubble.

The July 6 assault came only days after another devastating Russian strike on Kyiv that killed 31 people last Thursday.

How has Zelenskyy reacted?

Throughout the war, Kyiv has repeatedly stressed that interceptor missiles serve an entirely defensive role. Unlike offensive missiles used to strike targets inside Russia, interceptors are designed solely to destroy incoming aerial threats before they can reach populated areas or critical infrastructure.

Among the systems currently available to Ukraine, only the US-made Patriot air-defence system and the European SAMP/T possess the capability to intercept ballistic missiles reliably.

That reality has elevated Patriot missiles from an important military asset to perhaps Ukraine's single most requested defensive weapon. Addressing the nation after the attack, Zelenskiy criticised the pace at which production of interceptor missiles has expanded despite years of war.

"It is simply absurd that, in the modern world, production has still not been scaled up to the level actually required to protect people from ballistic terror."

The Ukrainian president also argued that Kyiv possesses the industrial capacity to contribute directly to interceptor production if licensing arrangements were expanded.

He said that Ukraine had the know-how to produce the weapons and if it received US licences to manufacture U.S. Patriot systems "our production would be sufficient not only to defend Ukraine but also to assist partners who need them".

Ahead of the Nato summit in Ankara, Zelenskyy called for allies to take what he described as "strong decisions" to strengthen Ukraine's ability to defend itself against continued Russian missile attacks.

In another appeal posted on X, he wrote, "As long as Patriot missiles sit in our allies' stockpiles, Russia is only encouraged to keep destroying residential buildings."

"The US and Europe have the power to stop this terror."

The shortage has become so pronounced that Ukraine is now seeking emergency mechanisms capable of transferring existing Patriot missile inventories from allied countries while replacement missiles are manufactured for those donor nations.

Why are ballistic missiles far more difficult to intercept?

While Ukrainian air-defence units continued to destroy the overwhelming majority of drones and many cruise missiles, ballistic missiles repeatedly broke through the country's protective shield.

The difference lies in the nature of the weapons themselves. Loitering drones, including the Shahed-type systems frequently used by Russia, generally travel at relatively low speeds and can often be tracked for extended periods before reaching their intended targets.

Cruise missiles, although faster and more sophisticated, still fly on comparatively predictable trajectories that many modern air-defence systems are designed to engage.

Ballistic missiles present an entirely different challenge. Weapons such as Russia's Iskander-M ballistic missile, as well as North Korean-supplied projectiles that Ukraine says have been used by Moscow, travel at extremely high — often hypersonic — speeds while following steep, high-altitude flight paths.

Once they begin descending toward their targets, defenders have only a matter of seconds to detect the incoming missile, calculate its trajectory, launch an interceptor and complete the engagement before impact.

Because of these characteristics, standard anti-aircraft systems and mobile air-defence units that perform effectively against drones cannot reliably neutralise ballistic threats.

According to the information provided by Ukrainian and allied officials, only two categories of systems currently fielded by Ukraine are capable of carrying out this mission consistently: the US-made Patriot system and the European SAMP/T.

Which interceptor missiles is Ukraine requesting from its allies?

At the top of Ukraine's priority list are two variants of the Patriot missile system: the Patriot Advanced Capability-2 (PAC-2) and the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3).

Although both belong to the same Patriot family, they were designed with different operational roles.

The PAC-2 serves as a traditional long-range interceptor. Rather than colliding directly with an incoming target, it uses a proximity-fuse blast fragmentation warhead. As the interceptor approaches an enemy aircraft or cruise missile, the warhead detonates nearby, dispersing fragments intended to destroy the target before it reaches its destination.

This approach has proved highly effective against aircraft and cruise missiles operating over long distances. However, it is considerably less suited to heavily reinforced ballistic missile warheads travelling at extreme speeds.

For that reason, Ukraine has placed particular emphasis on obtaining PAC-3 interceptors. Unlike its predecessor, the PAC-3 does not rely primarily on an explosive blast. Instead, it employs what is known as "Hit-to-Kill" technology.

Under this concept, the interceptor uses an active radar seeker together with dozens of small solid-propellant manoeuvring thrusters located near its nose to make continuous adjustments during flight.

Rather than exploding close to an incoming ballistic missile, the PAC-3 is designed to strike the target directly.

The interceptor physically collides with the incoming missile at combined speeds exceeding Mach 5, using the enormous kinetic energy generated by the impact to destroy the threat and detonate its payload in mid-air.

This approach is intended to reduce the likelihood of dangerous warhead fragments falling into populated areas below.

Why has supplying Patriot missiles become such a difficult challenge?

Officials point to limited production capacity and competing security requirements facing Nato members.

One factor identified by officials is the sustained strain placed on US and allied inventories by conflicts in West Asia over the past year. Continued regional instability has significantly reduced available stocks of Patriot interceptor missiles, leaving fewer weapons immediately available for transfer elsewhere.

At the same time, many interceptor missiles remain positioned in domestic US storage facilities and across Western Europe as part of national defence reserves.

For governments, transferring these missiles to Ukraine would mean accepting lower levels of readiness for their own air-defence networks until manufacturers can produce replacements.

This has emerged as one of the alliance's most politically sensitive debates.

Recognising the urgency, Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has reportedly written directly to nearly 40 partner countries ahead of the Nato summit, urging governments to bypass traditional procurement procedures in favour of emergency arrangements capable of moving interceptor missiles to Ukraine much more quickly.

Kyiv has proposed two mechanisms intended to accelerate deliveries.

The first is the Pre-funded Urgent Requirements List (PURL), under which alliance funding would be directed toward clearing immediate procurement bottlenecks so urgently needed equipment could reach Ukraine faster.

The second proposal, known as JUMPSTART, is designed to address the shortage from another angle.

Under this mechanism, allied countries would transfer interceptor missiles currently held in their own operational inventories to Ukraine immediately. Those governments would then receive replacement missiles directly from future production lines once manufacturers completed new orders over the coming years.

The proposal effectively asks participating countries to accept a temporary reduction in their own missile inventories in exchange for guaranteed future replenishment.

Whether enough governments are prepared to take that step remains one of the central questions surrounding the Nato summit.

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged the seriousness of Ukraine's situation ahead of the meeting but also emphasised the practical limits facing the alliance.

He stated that "there is a limit to the amount of interceptors there are in NATO territory."

When will the Russia-Ukraine conflict end?

Speaking on Monday, United States President Donald Trump said he believed negotiations could be moving closer to a breakthrough. "This is one that I think we're getting much closer than people realize. And President Putin wants it to end. I will tell you that very strongly," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Trump said he had spoken over the weekend with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

According to the US president, he held a "good call" with Putin during the Fourth of July holiday. A Kremlin aide later said the conversation lasted 85 minutes and included Trump's offer to help advance efforts toward peace.

Trump also expressed optimism regarding his upcoming discussions with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Nato summit in Ankara.

"And President Zelenskyy actually wants it to end now. And we're going to be going to Nato, and we're going to be talking about it, and I think we're going to get it," he said. "I think we're going to get it ended. It's been a terrible situation."

A US official said Trump was scheduled to meet Zelenskyy on Wednesday during the summit as part of a renewed diplomatic effort to end the conflict. The same official added that Trump would likely speak with Putin again after those discussions.

From Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia believed Washington's overall approach to the conflict had remained consistent despite speculation about shifts in Trump's position.

"You know, President Trump, the US president, has a fairly consistent stance, and all these fabrications about him supposedly changing his views like a weather vane are, of course, untrue," Peskov told reporters.

"He is consistent and confident in his understanding of what is happening, but, most importantly, he (Trump) is open to listening to the information that is conveyed to him by Putin."

Zelenskyy also described his own recent conversation with Trump in positive terms.

Speaking to the Financial Times, the Ukrainian president said their weekend telephone discussion had been "very good" and suggested that the American leader now viewed the conflict differently in light of Ukraine's recent military operations.

According to Zelenskyy, Trump told him Ukraine "is doing very well" with its long-range drone campaign targeting Russia's oil industry, attacks that Ukrainian officials say have contributed to fuel shortages inside Russia.

Asked whether those developments had influenced Trump's perspective, Zelenskyy replied, "President Trump wants to be where there’s success."

"That’s tied to many things - not only to his personality, but to the approaching (U.S. midterm) elections, to his status, to his belief in how this war can be ended."

Since a tense Oval Office meeting between the two leaders last year deteriorated into a public confrontation, Zelenskyy has sought to rebuild relations with Trump through subsequent meetings and direct engagement.

Meanwhile, the fighting on the ground has continued unabated. Russia's Defence Ministry said its forces had conducted a "massive" strike using long-range precision weapons launched from air, land and sea, together with drones.

According to Moscow, the attacks targeted military and energy infrastructure in Kyiv and the surrounding region as well as military airfields elsewhere in Ukraine.

The escalation forms part of a broader air campaign that Russia has intensified this year even as progress along parts of the frontline has slowed.

Ukrainian long-range attacks against Russian logistics networks and oil facilities have complicated Moscow's military operations, while Ukrainian forces have also reclaimed territory in some sectors of the approximately 1,200-kilometre front.

Although Russian troops have continued pressing toward the strategically important eastern city of Kostiantynivka, Zelenskyy rejected Moscow's claim over the weekend that the city had already fallen under Russian control.

Ukraine has simultaneously continued striking targets deep inside Russia. On Monday, Kyiv's military said it had attacked three Russian oil refineries, including the country's largest refinery in Omsk — located more than 2,414 kilometres (1,500 miles) from Ukrainian territory.

Ukrainian forces also reported strikes against two vessels belonging to Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" operating in the Sea of Azov.

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With inputs from agencies