Reform makes big gains in local UK polls: Will this pressure Starmer to quit?

Is UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in trouble?

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has surged in the local and regional body elections. Polls were held for nearly 5,000 council seats in England and to the parliaments in Scotland and Wales in the biggest election since 2024, when the Starmer-led Labour government came to power.

Starmer, 63, has been under fire recently over Peter Mandelson, whom he sacked as US ambassador in September 2025 over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. The scandal has led to the Opposition calling for the beleaguered Starmer to step down, and even some members of the Labour Party to wonder if Starmer is the right man to lead them.

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But what do we know about the surge of the anti-immigrant Reform party in the UK local polls? What does it mean for Starmer?

Let’s take a closer look.

Reform surge

According to the BBC, the early results have seen Reform UK making massive gains. The party has won 30 per cent of all the declared seats. The outlet, which polled a sample size of around 500 wards, estimated that Reform’s vote share is at 26 per cent. As per Al Jazeera, Reform has won at least 380 council seats until now.

Reform UK gained in the ex-Labour heartlands in northern England and the Midlands. Reform gained in Wigan, Bolton, Salford, Halton, Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch and Tamworth at the expense of Labour. As per Al Jazeera, Labour lost all 20 seats it held to Reform in Wigan. Rebecca Long-Bailey, Labour Member of Parliament for Salford, called the results ‘soul-destroying’.

Former British Home Secretary Suella Braverman with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Reuters

It also took Havering, near Essex, from a local party and wrested control of Newcastle-under-Lyme from the Conservative Party. Thus far, these are the only two councils it has completely taken over. In Hartlepool, Labour lost every seat it contested to Reform UK. However, these are just early results. As the votes are counted, Reform UK could make further inroads. Reform UK has performed optimally in places that voted for Brexit. In wards where over 60 per cent voted for Leave, Reform got an average of 41 per cent. However, in areas where less than a majority backed Brexit, Reform’s performance is nearly in single figures.

As per Al Jazeera, Labour has lost 258 council seats thus far. It currently has control of 253. Labour, while retaining 10 councils, has lost at least eight. “The picture has been pretty much as bad as anyone expected for Labour, or worse,” John Curtice, the UK’s most respected pollster, told Reuters.

Reform UK could also threaten Conservative rule in county council elections like Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk, all of whose results are awaited. The Conservative Party too has lost out heavily to Reform. As per Al Jazeera, the Conservative Party has lost 158 seats overall – mainly to Reform candidates. It has around 250 council seats. Reform UK also gained in Hull at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

Farage said the results “far exceeded” his hopes and were a “historic change in British politics”.

What it means for Starmer

The development could increase pressure on Starmer to resign. Some are already calling for Starmer to fall on his sword.

Hartlepool Labour MP Jonathan Brash told The Guardian, “I think the very best thing the Prime Minister could do now is address the nation tomorrow and set out a timetable for his departure. We can then have an orderly transition, one that, by the way, ensures the full breadth of talent within the Labour Party is able to stand should it want to.”

However, others are not willing to give up just yet. David Lammy, the Deputy Prime Minister, added, “You don’t change the pilot during a flight. You carry on and you recognise too that governments sometimes, particularly incumbent governments, have it hard, but of course we will reflect on what we’re hearing from the electorate. There’s a lot of frustration.”

Experts say Starmer could be in a tough spot. Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, told The Guardian that Labour could lose around 1,850 councillors in England. Polls predict it will lose the Senedd in Wales and give more ground to the Scottish National Party at Holyrood. This dismal performance would be the worst since then Conservative Prime Minister John Major, in 1995, lost over 2,000 council seats. That government too was engulfed by scandals.

Keir Starmer, 63, has been under fire recently over Peter Mandelson, whom he sacked as US ambassador in September 2025 over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Reuters

Though Hayward did find an upside for Starmer: “The one bright spot so far for Starmer is that all his natural challengers are seeing their own base swept away.”

The wider significance of the results cannot be understated. If these results hold up, they could signal the beginning of the end of Britain’s traditional two-party system. Reform UK could form the main opposition in Scotland and Wales to the pro-independence Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru.

The prospect of losing swathes of council seats in England, the end of its dominance of the Welsh Senedd, and a possible third-place finish in Scotland’s Holyrood parliament mean Starmer looks set to come under pressure again to quit or at least set out a timetable for his departure.

Starmer remains unbowed for now. “We can rise to this moment together – become a stronger, more resilient and more united nation with opportunities for all, or we can sink into the politics of grievance and division,” he wrote on Substack. “The answer to this moment, to the world we face today, is not passive government, nor is it the populists who look out at the world and offer only easy answers that would make us weaker, or bankrupt. This is a time for patriots.” Appearing to signal another possible reset after the elections, Starmer promised an “active, interventionist government”.

FAQs

1. Why has Reform UK performed strongly in these elections?

Reform UK has gained traction particularly in pro-Brexit areas and former Labour strongholds, capitalising on voter dissatisfaction with mainstream parties.

2. Is Keir Starmer likely to resign?

There is increasing pressure from some politicians and critics, but senior leaders within Labour are still backing him for now.

3. What do these results mean for UK politics?

They could signal a shift away from the traditional two-party system, with Reform UK emerging as a significant political force.

With inputs from agencies