Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict: Is another major war coming to Asia?

After months of escalating violence along the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier, tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban administration in Kabul have reached a level that many observers now describe as an active conventional conflict.

The latest developments indicate that both countries are increasingly willing to carry out military operations beyond their borders.

What is happening at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border?

The crisis escalated on Tuesday with both sides announcing fresh military actions.

Pakistan's military said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed four rudimentary drones that had crossed into the southwestern province of Balochistan from Afghanistan.

According to provincial authorities, one drone was spotted near a government school in Saranan, where two people were injured.

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The Afghan Taliban, meanwhile, announced that it had carried out airstrikes inside Pakistani territory. Afghanistan's Defence Ministry said its forces targeted what it described as an ISIS centre in Saranan in Pakistan's Balochistan province, along with additional locations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Afghanistan does not operate a conventional fighter jet fleet. However, according to data from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Taliban possesses at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters.

Taliban forces are also known to have drones, which have increasingly featured in cross-border confrontations with Pakistan.

The latest exchanges came only days after one of the deadliest cycles of violence witnessed this year when a Sindh Rangers headquarters in Karachi witnessed a militant attack on June 27. The assault, involving explosives and gunfire, killed three members of Pakistan's paramilitary force and injured four others.

Islamabad blamed the attack on Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a faction linked to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and said the incident was among several recent terrorist attacks originating from across the Afghan border.

In response, Pakistan launched coordinated ground and aerial operations targeting locations inside Afghanistan's eastern provinces of Paktia, Paktika and Kunar.

Pakistan said its military had eliminated at least 25 militants during the air operations while destroying large stockpiles of weapons and ammunition. "Security forces precisely struck terrorist camps and safe havens," Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar claimed in a message on X.

Pakistani security forces also carried out ground operations in its Bajaur district, where officials said four members of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar were killed. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan later confirmed that one of its commanders, Khan Ferosh, also known as Zabul, had died during the operation.

While Pakistan described the operation as a counterterrorism mission, the Taliban administration accused Islamabad of carrying out strikes that caused heavy civilian casualties.

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said at least 28 civilians were killed and 49 injured during the Pakistani airstrikes, cautioning that the number could rise as hospitals continued treating those wounded.

Afghan authorities reported an even higher toll. Government spokesperson Hamdullah Fitrat said the attacks killed 38 civilians and injured 163 people, including women and children.

According to Afghan officials, one of the worst-hit locations was a residential home in Paktia province, where dozens of civilians were reportedly caught in the bombardment.

Local officials alleged that a second strike occurred while residents were attempting to rescue survivors from the first attack.

Afghanistan's Deputy Information Minister Mohajer Farahi warned in a statement that the "attack will certainly be avenged at the appropriate time".

How has this conflict only escalated through this year?

Relations between Islamabad and Kabul had already deteriorated sharply last year, as Pakistan repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of allowing Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants to operate from Afghan territory.

Kabul has consistently rejected those allegations, maintaining that militancy inside Pakistan is an internal matter rather than one directed from Afghanistan.

Border tensions escalated dramatically in October, when heavy clashes erupted along the frontier. Pakistan carried out airstrikes reaching Kabul for the first time, prompting diplomatic intervention led by Qatar.

A temporary ceasefire reduced hostilities, but negotiations held in Doha and Istanbul failed to produce a lasting agreement.

Pakistan maintained that peace depended on decisive action against TTP commanders allegedly operating from Afghan territory, while the Taliban refused to accept Islamabad's accusations.

The fragile truce eventually collapsed in February earlier this year.

Following a series of deadly TTP suicide attacks inside Pakistan, Islamabad announced what it described as an "open war" against militant sanctuaries across the border and launched Operation Ghazab lil Haq.

The campaign combined artillery barrages with extensive air operations targeting Afghan territory. The Taliban responded with cross-border ground assaults, reportedly capturing 27 Pakistani border posts during the fighting.

The conflict only widened further during March as military operations extended well beyond frontier districts. Pakistani aircraft struck locations in Kabul, Kandahar and Bagram Airfield, while Afghan forces increasingly relied on drones to target areas around Rawalpindi and Quetta.

Although the arrival of Ramadan and mounting international pressure contributed to a temporary reduction in large-scale military activity during late March and the following months, lower-level fighting never completely ceased.

Frequent cross-border attacks and insurgent operations continued throughout the spring, setting the stage for the renewed escalation witnessed in late June and early July.

Why are Pakistan and Afghanistan fighting?

The current confrontation is rooted in long-running security disputes, unresolved territorial disagreements and a near-total collapse of trust between Islamabad and Kabul.

At the centre of Pakistan's security concerns is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an insurgent organisation seeking to overthrow the Pakistani state and establish its own Islamic system of governance.

Although the Afghan Taliban and the TTP operate as separate organisations, Pakistan has repeatedly argued that the two groups maintain ideological, historical and ethnic links. Islamabad has long accused the Taliban administration of allowing TTP fighters to find refuge across the border after carrying out attacks inside Pakistan.

According to Pakistani figures, attacks attributed to the TTP during 2025 killed more than 660 members of the country's security forces and over 580 civilians.

The Taliban government has consistently denied providing sanctuary to militants, insisting that the violence inside Pakistan is an internal security issue rather than one orchestrated from Afghan territory.

These competing narratives have made diplomatic engagement increasingly difficult.

The two countries also remain divided over the status of the Durand Line, the roughly 2,600-kilometre frontier established in 1893 during British colonial rule.

Pakistan regards the line as its internationally recognised border with Afghanistan. Successive Afghan governments, including the present Taliban administration, have refused to formally recognise it, arguing that it divided the traditional Pashtun homeland.

Pakistan's efforts to fence large stretches of the frontier have repeatedly triggered armed confrontations with Afghan border forces over the years. As militant activity increased, those tensions increasingly overlapped with counterterrorism operations, making the frontier one of South Asia's most volatile borders.

Multiple efforts to reduce tensions have produced only temporary results. Qatar previously helped broker a ceasefire, while China has also attempted to mediate between Islamabad and Kabul. However, those initiatives have not prevented the latest escalation.

Following Pakistan's latest airstrikes, Russia also appealed for restraint. In a statement issued by its Foreign Ministry, Moscow described the Pakistani strikes as a "tragic episode" and urged both governments to return to negotiations.

"The Russian side urges Islamabad and Kabul to end the armed conflict and resolve disputed issues through political and diplomatic means," the statement said.

Despite repeated mediation attempts, the positions of both governments remain far apart.

Are Pakistan and Afghanistan heading towards a full-scale war?

Despite the sharp escalation, many analysts believe a conventional ground invasion remains unlikely.

Pakistan continues to face severe economic pressures, including fiscal constraints and inflation, making a prolonged occupation of Afghan territory an extremely costly proposition.

On the other side, the Taliban lacks the conventional military capabilities needed to seize and hold significant territory inside Pakistan. While it possesses aircraft, helicopters and drones, it does not field the heavy mechanised forces or air power required for a sustained offensive against its neighbour.

Instead, the conflict has increasingly been characterised by airstrikes, drone attacks, cross-border artillery exchanges and limited ground operations.

What has changed most dramatically is the willingness of both countries to strike targets well beyond the immediate frontier.

Cities and districts previously considered outside the immediate conflict zone — including Kabul, Kandahar, Karachi, Quetta, Rawalpindi and Balochistan — have all featured in military operations this year.

As long as Pakistan continues to accuse Kabul of sheltering TTP militants and the Taliban rejects those allegations, the underlying drivers of the conflict are unlikely to disappear.

For now, the prospect of a full-scale invasion remains limited.

With inputs from agencies