News18 exit polls: BJP favoured in Bengal, TVK surge in Tamil Nadu, UDF ahead in Kerala

Exit polls for Assembly elections in the four states of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Union Territory of Puducherry have been released.

The development comes after polling in the second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections across 142 constituencies concluded on Wednesday. Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry voted on April 9, while polling in Tamil Nadu was held on April 23.  Votes are set to be counted on May 4.

Before we begin, it must be noted that exit polls could be hazardous to health.

But what do the exit polls say?

West Bengal

In Bengal, 294 seats are up for grabs in the state Assembly in what is a two-way fight between the TMC and BJP, with the halfway mark being 148 seats.

More from Explainers

Kerala, Assam, Puducherry elections: Key battles to watch out for

West Bengal records historic 91.91% turnout in Phase I polls; Tamil Nadu logs 84.80%

Follow the exit poll LIVE results here

The CNN-News18 Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe, with a three per cent margin of error, favours the BJP, giving it between 88 and 98 seats. It predicts just 51–61 seats for the TMC. The poll gives the BJP a 43.7 per cent vote share and the TMC a 41.9 per cent vote share. Men favour the BJP 44.2 per cent to 42.7 per cent for the TMC.

Women too favour the BJP 43.2 per cent to 41.2 per cent for the TMC. When it comes to voters between the ages of 18 and 24 polled, 44.8 per cent back the BJP. Around 42.7 per cent of older voters polled back the BJP. When it comes to supporting a chief minister, 43 per cent say BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari is the favourite. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is at 42.5 per cent. The poll said employment was by far the biggest issue in the election, with 35.7 per cent of respondents saying a lack of jobs was their top concern.

Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls was second at 21 per cent, while corruption came in third at 10.5 per cent of respondents. 6.9 per cent cited inflation, while a mere 4.3 per cent said law and order and women’s safety.

Will West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee be able to fend off the BJP? Exit polls show she may face a tough time. ANI

The Matrize pollster gives BJP between 146 and 161 seats, while it gives the TMC between 125 and 140 seats. The pollster says Congress will likely not open its account in Bengal. PMARQ too puts BJP ahead with the same 146 to 161 tally. It predicts 118–138 seats for the TMC. PMARQ gives Congress between 1 and 6 seats.

JVC estimates between 131 and 152 seats for the TMC. Meanwhile, it gives BJP between 139 and 159 seats. It says the Congress will likely secure between 0 and 2 seats. Chanakya Strategies gives the TMC between 130 and 140 seats, while it estimates between 150 and 160 for the BJP. Chanakya says the Congress is likely to draw a blank in West Bengal.

The People’s Pulse is an outlier here, giving the TMC between 177 and 187 seats and predicting from 95 to 110 seats for the BJP. The pollster gives the Congress between 1 and 3 seats. The poll of polls gives the BJP between 137 and 157 seats, the TMC 131 and 151. The Congress is predicted to get between 1 and 3 seats.

The big takeaways: Most of the pollsters, including CNN-News18’s VoteVibe, seem to be giving the BJP a clear edge. Just one pollster, People’s Pulse, predicts that the TMC will hold on to West Bengal. Meanwhile, most agree that the Congress’ impact will be negligible in West Bengal. If the results of the exit polls bear out, the BJP will make unprecedented gains in the state.

Tamil Nadu

In Tamil Nadu, 234 seats are up for grabs in the state Assembly, with the halfway mark at 118, in a contest between the ruling DMK  and the Opposition AIADMK.

The CNN-News18 exclusive Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe gives the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) led by MK Stalin 103 to 113 seats. Meanwhile, it predicts that the Opposition All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will get from 114 to 124 seats. VoteVibe gives the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) of actor-politician Vijay between 4 and 10 seats.

The pollster says the DMK will garner a 38.9 per cent vote share and that the AIADMK will likely get a 39.9 per cent vote share – a difference of a mere one per cent. It gives the TVK a 15.8 per cent vote share.

MK Stalin’s DMK and the AIADMK-led opposition are locked in a close battle for pole position. Reuters

As per News18, the AIADMK is dominating North and West Tamil Nadu. It is ahead of the DMK 45.2 per cent to 36.3 per cent in the North and 41.8 per cent to 39 per cent in the West. Of those polled, 39.1 per cent say they prefer MK Stalin as chief minister, while 38.4 per cent say they would favour Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS).

Meanwhile, the Matrize pollster gives the ruling DMK between 122 and 132 seats. The pollster predicts between 87 and 100 seats for the AIADMK. It gives the TVK from 10 to 12 seats. PMARQ gives the DMK between 125 and 145 seats. Meanwhile, it estimates 65 to 85 seats for the AIADMK and 16 to 26 seats for the TVK.

The big takeaways: Though most exit polls favour the DMK to retain power, the CNN-News18 exclusive Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe gives the AIADMK the edge. The contest between the DMK and AIADMK could be a close-run thing. The TVK of Vijay, which is pulling the youth and educated, could complicate matters for the ruling DMK. It remains to be seen if the DMK can fend off the AIADMK on vote counting day.

Kerala

In Kerala, 140 seats are up for grabs in the state Assembly in what is a direct contest between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF).

The CNN-News18 exclusive Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe shows the Congress-led UDF ahead with 70 to 80 seats, while it gives the ruling LDF between 58 and 68 seats. It predicts the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get between 0 and 4 seats. The pollster says the UDF holds a 42.6 per cent vote share and the LDF a 39.5 per cent vote share.

The CNN-News18 VoteVibe exit poll says that incumbent Pinarayi Vijayan leads the chief minister preference race, with those polled at 31.8 per cent, while VD Satheesan is at 27.9 per cent.

In Kerala, 140 seats are up for grabs in the state Assembly in what is a direct contest between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF). Image courtesy: X

The Matrize pollster gives the UDF between 70 and 75 seats, while it estimates 60 to 65 for the LDF and 3 to 5 for the NDA. PMARQ also puts the UDF ahead with 71 to 79 seats, compared to 62 to 69 for the LDF, and between 1 and 4 for the NDA. JVC estimates a stronger showing for the UDF at 72 to 84 seats, while giving the LDF between 52 and 61 and the NDA between 3 and 7.

Axis My India gives the UDF between 78 and 90 seats and the LDF between 49 and 62, with the NDA at 0 to 3. People’s Pulse similarly shows the UDF in front with 75 to 85 seats, while it gives the LDF 55 to 65 and the NDA 0 to 3.

The big takeaways: Across all major pollsters, the UDF is consistently projected to be ahead, suggesting a likely change of government in Kerala. This is even as Vijayan’s personal popularity remains undented with the public. Meanwhile, the NDA remains a marginal player.

Assam

In Assam, 126 seats are up for grabs in the state Assembly in what is largely a contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance and the opposition Indian National Congress-led bloc.

The CNN-News18 exclusive Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe shows a strong lead for the BJP coalition, comprising BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), at 90 to 100 seats. VoteVibe gives the Congress bloc between 23 and 33 seats. It predicts the All India United Democratic Front (AUDF/AIUDF) will be limited to 0 to 6 seats.

VoteVibe gives the NDA around 46.1% of the vote share, while the Congress bloc is at 41.2 per cent. It gives the AIUDF just 2.8 per cent vote share. The pollster says that the Congress alliance seems to have secured support with Muslim voters, with 71.2 per cent of those polled favouring the bloc. However, the NDA is overwhelmingly favoured among Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, OBC voters and upper-caste Hindus. Of those polled, 51.2 per cent favour incumbent Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma could be on track for a second straight term.

Meanwhile, Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi is way behind at 37.2 per cent.

Exit polls said unemployment at 24 per cent was the top issue. Next in line was illegal immigration at 17.8 per cent and corruption at 17.4 per cent. Inflation was at 7.8 per cent and lack of development at just 6.4 per cent. Floods and rehabilitation were far behind at just 4.1 per cent.

Axis My India gives the BJP alliance between 88 and 100 seats and the Congress bloc between 24 and 36 seats, with others at 0 to 3. JVC estimates 88 to 101 seats for the BJP bloc, while it gives the INC alliance between 23 and 33 and the AIUDF around 2 seats.

Chanakya Strategies pegs the BJP alliance at 88 to 98 seats and the Congress bloc at 22 to 32. It gives the AIUDF between 3 and 5 seats. Matrize gives the BJP alliance 85 to 95 seats and the Congress coalition 25 to 32 seats. PMARQ gives the BJP alliance between 82 and 94 seats and the Congress coalition between 30 and 40 seats. The poll of polls also places the BJP alliance firmly ahead at 88 to 98 seats, compared to 25 to 35 for the Congress coalition and 1 to 3 for the AIUDF.

The big takeaways: Almost all pollsters are giving the BJP a convincing victory in Assam, while the Congress is significantly behind. The AIUDF and other players are likely to have a limited impact on the outcome. It seems that Sarma is on course for a second straight term. If exit polls hold, it will show that the BJP’s hold on Assam – which it has ruled for a decade – remains strong.

Puducherry

In Puducherry, 30 seats are up for grabs in the Assembly, with the majority mark at 16. The Axis My India exit poll projects the National Democratic Alliance, led by the All India NR Congress (NRC), to win between 16 and 20 seats.

Meanwhile, it estimates the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam–Indian National Congress alliance at 6 to 8 seats. It gives Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam between 2 and 4 seats. People’s Pulse exit poll similarly gives the NDA between 16 and 20 seats. It gives the Congress-led alliance between 6 and 8 seats.

Praja Poll too gives the NDA a big win in Puducherry. It predicts between 19 and 25 seats for the bloc. Meanwhile, it estimates just 6 to 10 seats for the DMK-Congress alliance, while it predicts that the TVK will not open its account. However, C-Voter has it far closer, with the NDA and the Congress each predicted to get between 13 and 17 seats.

The big takeaways: Almost all the exit polls in Puducherry favour the NRC-led NDA. Meanwhile, the DMK-Congress alliance is only neck and neck with the NDA in a single exit poll. The TVK, which is making its debut in Puducherry, could emerge as a spoiler or kingmaker. The party is gaining ground with the youth, the educated and in urban areas.

FAQs

1. When will the 2026 Assembly election results be declared?

The votes for the states of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and the Union Territory of Puducherry are slated to be counted on May 4, 2026.

2. Are exit polls reliable indicators of final results?

Exit polls provide early trends but are not always accurate. Past elections have shown that results can differ significantly from predictions.

3. Which party is leading overall across states according to exit polls?

Overall, pollsters say that the BJP appears ahead in West Bengal and Assam, the DMK is seemingly ahead of AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, the UDF leads in Kerala, and the NDA is projected to win in Puducherry.

With inputs from agencies