Has JD Vance become Donald Trump's clear 2028 successor over Marco Rubio?

United States Vice President JD Vance appears to have strengthened his position as the leading contender to inherit US President Donald Trump's political mantle ahead of the 2028 Republican presidential race, with recent developments suggesting that the president now views him more favourably than Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

For much of late 2025 and the first half of 2026, Trump is said to have privately sought opinions from advisers and allies over who would be the stronger successor — Vance or Rubio.

However, a recent report by Axios indicates that those discussions have largely subsided as Vance's standing inside the administration has risen.

According to people familiar with Trump's thinking, the president has become increasingly impressed by Vance's public performances, diplomatic role and political profile.

"POTUS isn't asking, 'JD or Marco?'' anymore," one source familiar with the president's thinking told Axios. "He's no longer asking, 'How's JD doing?' He's now saying, 'JD looks great, right?'"

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A senior Trump adviser echoed that assessment, saying, "JD is earning it, and Trump sees it," while adding that Rubio "wasn't planning to run anyway, and he'd be even less likely to do so now."

The changing dynamic has fuelled speculation that Vance has emerged as the clear favourite should he decide to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.

Iran diplomacy and media campaign boosted Vance's profile

A major turning point reportedly came in mid-June last month when Vance played a prominent role in diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the conflict with Iran.

The US vice president, alongside presidential envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, helped broker a tentative Memorandum of Understanding with Iran that marked an important step towards ending the war.

Reports suggest Vance had pushed to take a leading role in the negotiations after Rubio was reportedly sceptical about the prospects of securing an acceptable agreement and did not lead the US delegation.

The diplomatic breakthrough coincided with the publication of Vance's new memoir, Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith. Already scheduled for a nationwide promotional tour, the book release became intertwined with the international developments, dramatically expanding Vance's public visibility.

Throughout June, Vance conducted 33 interviews across a broad range of media platforms. His appearances included conservative podcasts, White House press briefings, discussions with reporters, HBO's Real Time with Bill Maher and ABC's The View.

"The president doesn't watch 'The View.' But he saw the clips and loved what he saw," one Trump adviser said, according to Axios.

Vance also continued fundraising for the Republican National Committee, reportedly helping generate around $70 million in contributions, strengthening political relationships that could prove valuable in a future presidential campaign.

Polls, fundraising and political organisation favour Vance

Among Republican voters, Vance's net favourability reportedly stands at 62 per cent, only slightly behind Trump's 65 per cent and well ahead of Rubio's 51 per cent, according to polling released by Navigator Research.

Other national and early-state surveys have similarly placed Vance ahead of potential Republican rivals in hypothetical 2028 contests.

Beyond polling, political insiders point to Vance's campaign infrastructure as another important advantage.

Having spent much of his vice presidency cultivating donors, consultants and experienced political operatives, Vance is widely viewed as possessing the organisational network necessary for a national primary campaign.

One Rubio ally acknowledged the contrast, saying, "Marco doesn't have pipe hitters. Vance does." The same source told Axios, "JD's looking good. And everyone in the administration knows it."

Rubio, meanwhile, has largely concentrated on his responsibilities as Secretary of State and has repeatedly indicated that he has little interest in launching a presidential primary challenge.

According to Trump advisers, Rubio lacks the extensive political organisation that Vance has assembled over the past two years.

Different visions for America's foreign policy

Vance has increasingly been associated with a more restrained, populist worldview that places greater emphasis on limiting prolonged foreign military engagements and pursuing pragmatic diplomatic solutions. His involvement in the Iran negotiations has reinforced that image.

Rubio, by contrast, continues to be viewed as representing a more traditional conservative foreign policy outlook.

While remaining aligned with Trump's agenda, he has maintained strong support for longstanding US alliances, adopted a more hawkish position on Israel and devoted significant diplomatic attention to Europe, Latin America, Lebanon and efforts relating to Cuba.

Supporters of Rubio argue that his work on Cuba could potentially deliver a major foreign policy achievement that has eluded multiple administrations.

Such an outcome could resonate strongly among Florida's large Cuban-American community, while Rubio's background as the Spanish-speaking son of Cuban immigrants could also help Republicans reconnect with some Hispanic voters dissatisfied with aspects of the administration's immigration policies.

Challenges remain despite Vance's momentum

Despite his apparent rise, Vance's path to the Republican nomination is far from guaranteed. He remains closely associated with the administration's efforts to end the Iran conflict, an issue that has proved politically contentious and has been linked by many voters to higher fuel prices.

"If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD," Trump joked last month when asked about the tentative peace agreement. Trump's history of rapidly shifting alliances also means political fortunes inside his orbit can change quickly.

Vance's long-standing connections to Silicon Valley and billionaire investor Peter Thiel — who reportedly played an important role in helping Vance secure the Republican vice-presidential nomination in 2024 — could become political liabilities if concerns over artificial intelligence, technology-driven job losses and housing affordability continue to grow.

The US vice president has also attracted criticism from some religious conservatives following public disagreements with the Pope, while pro-Israel conservatives unhappy with his role in the Iran negotiations and criticism of some right-wing Israeli politicians have expressed support for Rubio instead.

In addition, Vance has faced criticism from conservative free-market advocates over his economic views regarding government involvement in business.

Trump advisers have also noted a potential complication involving commentator Tucker Carlson, an ally of Vance who has recently become increasingly critical of the president.

"So far, Tucker isn't a problem. But it could be if Trump tells JD to distance himself from him," another Trump adviser said.

Online, Vance has also become a frequent target of internet satire, with critics often circulating edited images depicting him with exaggerated, baby-like facial features.

At the same time, Vance has continued to accumulate support within influential conservative circles.

Among his notable endorsements is backing from Erika Kirk, widow of slain conservative activist Charlie Kirk, whose Turning Point USA organisation remains highly influential among younger Republican voters.

Is a Vance-Rubio partnership still possible?

Although Vance increasingly appears to be Trump's preferred political successor, the president has also floated the possibility that the perceived rivalry may never materialise.

During a recent interview on the Pod Force One podcast, Trump praised both men and suggested they could eventually appear together on a Republican national ticket.

"I would think that JD and Marco as a team would be very hard to beat."

Such remarks have reinforced speculation that while Vance currently appears to lead the race to become Trump's political heir, Rubio could still play a significant role in the Republican Party's future, potentially allowing the administration to project unity rather than internal competition.

For now, however, Vance's diplomatic profile, fundraising success, media presence, organisational network and growing confidence from Trump have combined to place him at the centre of early conversations about who could carry the Republican banner into the 2028 United States presidential election.

With inputs from agencies