India expands nuclear gap over Pakistan warheads as world ramps up readiness: Sipri

Over the past year, India expanded its nuclear arsenal relative to Pakistan as nuclear powers across the world ramped up their posturing, according to the annual report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).

The report said India is believed to possess around 190 nuclear warheads, compared to Pakistan’s 170 warheads. India is also believed to have added 10 new warheads over the past year. But it is not just the numbers that India has focused on.

India is also believed to have continued developing new types of nuclear delivery systems. Moreover, India appears to be looking beyond Pakistan towards China as well.

“The modernisation programme is increasingly focused on developing long-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China, although planning also continues to be focused on India’s long-standing rivalry with Pakistan,” the report said.

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As for Pakistan, the report said it continued to develop new delivery systems and accumulate fissile material in 2025, suggesting that its nuclear arsenal could expand over the coming decade. While the report noted that neither side showed any inclination to go nuclear during the four-day conflict last year, Sipri director Karim Haggag said that “world events — not least the outbreak of conflict between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan — are challenging nuclear deterrence logic”.

However, China’s nuclear programme continues to be the fastest-growing. Sipri noted that China could potentially possess at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either Russia or the United States by the turn of the decade.

This is not a new development but part of a continuing trend, with China not only producing more warheads but also expanding the infrastructure needed to house its missiles and warheads.

The report also noted that China’s posturing may have undergone a fundamental revision. It said that “China and India may now occasionally deploy a small number of warheads mounted on missiles during peacetime” — a step beyond the earlier policy of keeping missiles and warheads separate and only 'mating' them ahead of a strike.

Haggag said the world could be making a fundamental mistake. As more countries view nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent, the effect could instead be the opposite.

“Influential voices, including some world leaders, are advocating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack by a hostile state. But making national defence and security strategies dependent — or more dependent — on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks,” said Haggag.