From Red Sea rage to Hormuz hiccup: 5 factors holding Houthis back in Iran war

In 2025, when the US brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Yemen-based Houthis continued targeting Israel with missiles and drones. This was their contribution to sustaining what they describe as 'Muslim brotherhood.'

However, when it comes to Iran war, which started on February 28 with US-Israeli attacks on Iranian infrastructure, the Yemeni militant organisation appears to have shifted its playbook. The restrained actions of Houthis reflect a strategic approach which is more about survival than escalation.

Since the Iran conflict began, some of Hamas’s statements have been strongly supportive of Tehran. However, things took a different turn on March 14, when the group called on Iran to refrain from targeting “neighbouring countries,” even as it expressed support for its “right of self-defence.”

Last year, the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, projected power beyond Yemen’s borders. Apart from targeting Israeli infrastructure, they disrupted key maritime routes, presenting themselves as a major force in the regional conflict. These actions boosted their domestic standing and reinforced their image as 'defenders of Gaza.'

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Shift from escalation to restraint

The contrast between last year and now is clear. Earlier, the Houthis were willing to open multiple fronts, continuing attacks even after ceasefire efforts. Today, they are holding back from major escalatory moves such as a full blockade of the Red Sea.

Instead, they appear to be keeping their most powerful tools in reserve. Limited or delayed strikes indicate a more cautious posture, likely shaped by the risks of wider retaliation from the US and its allies in the region.

Military pressure has taken its toll

One of the key reasons for this shift is military degradation. Sustained strikes by the United States and Israel over the past year have weakened Houthi infrastructure. These operations exposed vulnerabilities in their missile systems and supply networks.

As a result, the group may no longer have the same operational freedom it once enjoyed, forcing it to act more carefully.

Economic fragility limits options

The Houthis also face economic constraints. The regions under their control in Yemen are already struggling, and further escalation could worsen the situation.

A broader conflict could disrupt trade, increase shortages, and trigger internal instability. This makes restraint not just a military choice, but an economic necessity.

Red Sea strategy becomes last resort

Previously, attacks on Red Sea shipping were a central tactic. Now, this strategy seems to have shifted into a deterrent rather than an active tool.

By holding back, the Houthis preserve their ability to disrupt global trade if tensions escalate further. This gives them leverage without immediate risk.

Iran’s limits shape response

The Houthis are part of Iran’s wider regional network, often called as the “axis of resistance.” However, recent developments suggest that this network is not acting in complete unity.

Iran itself appears cautious about opening new fronts, and its allies, including Houthis, are reflecting that hesitation. This has led to a more restrained and coordinated approach.

A cautious approach

The Houthis’ behaviour highlights a broader shift in regional dynamics. Instead of constant escalation, groups are increasingly weighing risks and focusing on survival.

This does not mean the threat has disappeared. Rather, it has become more controlled and strategic. The Houthis still have the capability to escalate, but for now, they seem to be choosing restraint over confrontation.

This recalibration suggests that the so-called “axis of resistance” may be more fragmented and risk-averse than previously believed, reshaping how conflicts in the region could unfold in the future.