Armenia votes today: Can Pashinyan complete his turn toward Europe?

Armenians are heading to the polls today, with incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeking another term on a promise to bring the country closer to the European Union.

Since coming to power in 2018, Pashinyan has gradually distanced Armenia from its traditional ally Russia and pursued closer ties with the EU. Recent opinion polls show his Civil Contract party leading the race with around 32 per cent support, compared to 11 per cent for the pro-Russian Strong Armenia party.

The outcome of the election is expected to shape Armenia's political and economic trajectory for years to come. While Pashinyan has embraced a pro-European approach, Russia remains Armenia's largest trading partner, making it difficult for Yerevan to completely move away from Moscow.

Moreover, it remains unclear whether all EU member states would support Armenia's eventual integration into the bloc, creating further uncertainty over the country's long-term geopolitical direction.

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Anger over Nagorno-Karabakh

Pashinyan is also facing public criticism over the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but historically populated largely by ethnic Armenians.

In 2023, Azerbaijan regained full control of the territory following a military offensive, triggering the mass exodus of the region's Armenian population.

Critics argue that Armenia gained little from the peace agreement signed with Azerbaijan at the White House last year. However, Pashinyan has placed peace and regional stability at the centre of his election campaign, presenting reconciliation efforts as essential for Armenia's future.

The Russia dilemma

The prime minister's main challengers come from pro-Russian political forces.

Beyond being Armenia's largest trading partner, Moscow retains significant economic leverage over the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently highlighted that Armenia continues to receive Russian oil and gas at heavily discounted prices — benefits that are not available to European nations.

In recent weeks, Russia has also imposed several restrictions on Armenian exports, including flowers, mineral water, fruits and vegetables, underscoring its economic influence.

Last year, Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who built much of his wealth in Russia, launched the Strong Armenia party and pledged to strengthen ties with Moscow if elected.

Allegations of authoritarianism

Pashinyan has also faced accusations of increasingly authoritarian governance.

Several opposition figures have been arrested, including Karapetyan, who is currently under house arrest. Critics accuse the government of using state institutions and resources to consolidate political power and suppress dissent.

During the election campaign, a displaced Armenian from Nagorno-Karabakh was reportedly detained after confronting Pashinyan and asking him critical questions.

The result of today's election will determine whether Armenia continues its westward pivot toward Europe or whether pro-Russian forces can slow — or even reverse — that course.