Champions League prediction: Who will win Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid and Liverpool vs PSG matches?

FC Barcelona and Liverpool will need to stage incredible comebacks as they aim to reach the UEFA Champions League semi-finals after losing their first leg quarter-finals. Both Barcelona and Liverpool lost by an identical 2-0 margin in the first leg as they went down to Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, respectively.

Barcelona face Atletico Madrid away from home on Tuesday at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano stadium, while Liverpool play against PSG at home in Anfield.

Barcelona face tough odds in Champions League

The bad news, however, is that Opta’s Supercomputer has given both Barca and Liverpool a very small chance of qualifying for the semi-finals of the ongoing 2025-2026 Champions League season.

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Interestingly, Barcelona have a 50.4% chance of winning against Atletico according to Opta’s Supercomputer, 22.5% chance of a draw and a 27.1% chance of a loss. But a victory may not translate into qualification as Barca trail 2-0. Even a 1-0 win won't push them into the final four stage.

The chance of qualification to the semi-finals stands at 20.4% for Barcelona, who need to win to win 3-0 or by a two-goal margin to take the contest into the penalty shootout.

Barcelona’s chances of winning the Champions League have also come down to 3.62% from 14.74% after they lost the first leg to Atletico.

Liverpool set to crash out of UCL?

Similarly, Liverpool also have a 39.6% chance of winning against PSG and there's a 22.8% for a draw, according to Opta’s Supercomputer. But a victory may not result in progress to the semi-finals due to PSG winning the first leg 2-0.

PSG are also heavily predicted to go through.

“The visitors (PSG) are obviously heavy favourites to advance, though, doing so in 85.8% of sims, while Liverpool manage an unlikely turnaround in 14.2%,” Opta's prediction report read.

Also, PSG did not play a match over the weekend to rest their players for the match vs Liverpool, who won 2-0 against Fulham on Saturday. Naturally, PSG are expected to be fresher for the contest, a massive advantage for the French side.