Vantage | Why India can't afford to ignore Myanmar's big crisis

In the ongoing turmoil in Myanmar, the situation has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks. What started as a military coup over two years ago has now evolved into a full-blown conflict between rebels and the military junta. This development has significant implications for India, which has been closely monitoring the situation.Indian travel advisoryWith the intensification of the conflict, India has issued a travel advisory, urging its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Myanmar. For those Indians already in the country, precautions are recommended, including refraining from visiting troubled areas and registering with the Indian mission in Yangon.While the number of Indian citizens in Myanmar is relatively low, India has substantial investments in the country, particularly in infrastructure projects. The crown jewel is the Sittwe Port, a deep-water port in Myanmar's Rakhine State, valued at over $400 million. Bilateral trade had reached $1.5 billion, with nearly $2 billion in foreign investments from India into Myanmar before the conflict erupted.Rebel offensive and military lossesThe recent rebel offensive has put these investments at risk, prompting India to issue a travel advisory as an official acknowledgment of the brewing trouble. The military junta has suffered significant losses, losing control of over 100 outposts, with rebels swiftly gaining ground and defeating soldiers in multiple engagements.The rebels' momentum is evident as they continue to capture soldiers and weapons. Reports indicate that over 400 soldiers, belonging to both the military and police force, have surrendered since the rebels initiated their offensive. The military's inability to mount an effective counteroffensive has raised concerns about its ability to regain lost territories.There are indications that some soldiers are reluctant to fight, as rebels have released images of surrendered soldiers claiming they were given travel expenses and allowed to return to their families. This suggests a lack of faith in the military leadership, with troops opting for financial incentives over continued engagement in the conflict.Refugee influx and India's responseAs the conflict persists, the risk of a larger influx of refugees into neighbouring countries including India becomes more pronounced. Recent incidents have seen at least 70 soldiers from Myanmar attempting to enter India through the northeastern states of Manipur and Mizoram. While New Delhi managed to repatriate them, the ongoing offensive increases the likelihood of more significant refugee challenges.Experts, such as Jason Tower, Country Director for Burma Program at the US Institute of Peace highlight the existential crisis facing Myanmar's military. Tower suggests that the military may have to cede significant territories or make substantial concessions indicating the gravity of the situation.“Clearly, things are no longer sustainable for the Myanmar army. At some point, it's either going to have to give up very significant parts of of territory, or it might even be pushed to potentially make even bigger concessions. So, the Myanmar military, I think, is facing an existential crisis at this point," said Tower.With the writing on the wall, India must confront the reality that if Myanmar's military loses control, the border with India could become more volatile. The potential for an increased refugee influx and the broader regional implications underscore the urgency for India to actively engage with the evolving crisis in its neighbouring country.Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News,India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.