Iran war is Trump’s lame excuse for pausing Taiwan arms package

The pause in the second US arms package for Taiwan, the largest since 1979 and worth around $14 billion, wasn’t surprising following Xi Jinping’s dire warning to Donald Trump during the Beijing summit earlier this month. After approving an $11.15 billion arms package for Taiwan in December, Trump didn’t approve the second package, knowing that Xi would object during their meeting.

Behind closed doors, Xi told Trump, “If mishandled (the Taiwan issue), the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation.”

Eager to mend ties with China after last year’s tariff war, in which Beijing furiously retaliated, and facing an unrelenting Iran and the Midterms with the lowest approval ratings, Trump was expected to succumb to Xi’s pressure tactics.

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“I will make a determination over the next fairly short period,” he said when asked by a reporter aboard Air Force One about the second arms package while returning from Beijing.

Trump Retreats After Xi’s Warning

Trump backed off — at least, for now. The short timeline post the Beijing summit shows Trump’s usual contradictory stance when faced with a strong adversary.

On May 20, Trump said for the second time that he would speak with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. However, the next day, May 21, acting Navy secretary Hung Cao informed a Senate committee that the US had paused the second weapons package, approved earlier by Congress.

“Right now, we’re doing a pause to make sure we have the munitions we need for (Operation) Epic Fury — which we have plenty of,” he said.

Taiwan was clueless. There’s “no information indicating that the US intends to make any adjustments to this arms sale”, Taiwan’s presidential office spokesperson, Karen Kuo, said the next day.

On the other hand, the US is bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to provide “such defence articles and defence services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defence capacity as determined by the President and Congress”.

The president is also bound to inform Congress promptly of “threats to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan, and any danger to the United States interests arising from such threats”.

The Act doesn’t specify whether the US will intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan.

Besides, the Ronald Reagan administration gave Six Assurances to Taiwan that were declassified in 2020, with one of them stating that the US would not consult China before making decisions about selling arms to Taiwan.

Trump clearly breached this assurance by pausing the second arms package.

US Contradicts Itself on Taiwan Arms

Cao not only contradicted himself but also secretary of war Pete Hegseth, Trump and secretary of state and acting NSA Marco Rubio. Cao told the Senate that the US had “plenty” of missiles and interceptors. However, he contradicted himself later. “We’re just making sure we have everything,” he said.

The Trump administration has continuously insisted that the munitions stockpile isn’t strained. Earlier this month, Hegseth told the House, “First of all, the munitions issue has been foolishly and unhelpfully overstated. We know exactly what we have. We have plenty of what we need.”

However, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, the US fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs), and hundreds of THAADs, Standard Missile (SM)-3s and SM-6s.

Cao also undercut Trump and Rubio.

On May 1, Trump, in a letter addressed to Congress, informed that hostilities with Iran had “terminated”. Though it was a clever tactic to avoid congressional approval to continue military operations under the War Powers Act, 1973, as 60 days had passed since the operation was launched, it still meant that Epic Fury was over.

On May 5, Rubio said during a White House briefing, “The operation is over. We’re done with that stage of it.”

Even the US Central Command Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, informed the Senate that Epic Fury had achieved its aims.

What do 2 Arms Packages Contain

Since the Taiwan Relations Act, the US has sold arms worth more than $90 billion to Taiwan despite China’s fierce opposition. The two recent arms packages are the biggest.

The first package contains the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), FGM-148 Javelin and BGM-71 TOW (Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided) missiles, M109A7 Self-Propelled Howitzers, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System-Unitary pods and ALTIUS-700M and ALTIUS-600 drones.

Not much is known about the second package, but it contains MIM 104F Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) missiles to intercept incoming missiles and aircraft.

Iran Excuse in Pausing Arms Package

During his first term, the total value of arms sales approved by Trump to Taiwan was $18.3 billion. Joe Biden approved $8.4 billion of arms for Taiwan. However, not all weapons approved by Trump in his first term have been delivered, and a majority of the arms approved by Biden are also pending. Weapons delivery by the US to foreign customers takes years, not months or weeks.

For example, Taiwan signed the contract to purchase 66 F-16 Block 70 jets (F-16V Viper), the most advanced variant, in 2020. However, the delivery is pending, with Lockheed CFO Evan Scott noting in April that production had “issues during the flight test” and delivery would begin soon.

Similarly, Slovakia ordered 14 F-16 Block 70s and Bulgaria 16 in 2018 and 2019, respectively, but production was completed last December. Building an F-16 from scratch and delivering it could easily take five years or more due to global supply chain issues, procurement of materials, assembly line problems and rigorous testing. Besides the F-16s, several other weapons and items approved for sale to Taiwan are pending — missiles, torpedoes, drones, communications and mining systems, radars, recce pods and gun mounts.

In 2019, Taiwan ordered 108 M1A2T Abrams tanks as part of a $2.22 billion arms package. However, they were delivered in three batches: 38 tanks in December 2024, 42 in 2025 and the remaining 28 in April this year. The pandemic, global supply chain disruptions and the Ukraine War caused the delay.

A Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missile is manufactured in around 42 months. In January, the Department of War signed a $4.76 billion contract with Lockheed Martin to triple PAC-3 missile output from around 600 to 2,000 annually until June 2030.

In April, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defence (MND) issued a procurement contract for M109A7 Howitzers, worth $2.35 billion, which will be delivered by December 2034.

In the same month, the MND issued a procurement contract for HIMARS, worth $3.92 billion, with estimated completion in December 2032.

The backlog in delivery of these items stands at a staggering $29.7 billion as of April, according to George Mason University — traditional weapons $12.56 billion, delivery in progress of these weapons $367 million, munitions $2.33 billion, asymmetric systems $10.87 billion and delivery in progress of these systems $3.59 billion.

The F-16s alone have a 27 per cent share of the backlog, the howitzers 13.56 per cent and HIMARS 13.63 per cent.

If several defence items in packages approved by Trump during his first term and those by Biden haven’t been delivered, the delivery of items in the $14-billion arms package will take years. Considering the years-long delay in delivering such weapons, using the Iran War as an excuse was illogical and ridiculous.

Moreover, of the main precision-guided munitions the US has used against Iran — Tomahawk, Patriot, THAAD, SM-3, SM-6 and JASSM — Taiwan uses only the Patriot PAC-3.

Pausing Whole Arms Package Illogical

Arms packages for Taiwan include not only missiles, tanks and fighter jets but also their related systems. Spare and repair parts, software, engineering and technical assistance, training, logistics support, and Command, Control, Communications and Computers (C4) life cycle support and related equipment are an integral part of such packages.

For example, the first arms package (around $11 billion) for Taiwan includes precision guidance kits; tactical mission network software, equipment and services; helicopter spare and repair parts; Harpoon missile refurbishment kits; and $1 billion worth of military software.

In November, Trump approved a $330 million package for spare and repair parts for aircraft to Taiwan. It included non-standard spare and repair parts and related equipment for F-16s, C-130 transport planes and Taiwan’s AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-Kuo multirole combat jet.

Similarly, packages approved by Biden included the Patriot International Engineering Services Programme and Field Surveillance Programme; contract logistics support for the Surveillance Radar Programme; spare and repair parts for wheeled vehicles and weapons; 30 mm ammunition and technical assistance for CM-32 armoured vehicles; infrared search and track system and standard and non-standard spare and repair parts for F-16s; and C4 life cycle support and related equipment; advanced Tactical Data Link System Upgrade Planning.

Pausing the complete $14-billion package, which certainly includes such integral parts, is beyond comprehension.

(The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. He tweets as @FightTheBigots. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)