Godzilla is here: India needs a climate-resilient agri-system to withstand future El Niños

The Godzilla Super El Niño is here. People living in India need no reminder of it. Intense heat waves, erratic weather, storms, western disturbances, untimely rain, and now delayed monsoons are all symptoms of the excessive heating of the Pacific waters resulting in a Super El Niño. And India has been suffering for some time now. Even the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says there is an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are around 90 per cent.

First, an El Niño recap: the hotter waters in the Pacific Ocean lead to heating of the air over the ocean. Over time, the Pacific Ocean, which is a cooler air zone, is converted into a hot zone. The heated region increases evaporation, and with the water vapour, the hot air rises into the higher levels of the atmosphere. The rising hot air leaves a vacuum-like situation at the ocean level and above. This forces the cooler winds from other parts of the planet to gush in to maintain the equilibrium.

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Now back to our monsoon: the Indian monsoon occurs on the same principles. During the hot summer on the subcontinent, the land mass heats up, inviting cooler air from the Indian Ocean. The moisture-laden winds bring the clouds, and it rains. The Pacific trade winds blowing eastward into the Asian land mass strengthen the monsoon and help bring the much-needed rains.

But now, due to the Super El Niño, ocean surface temperatures are reported to touch 3 degrees above average. This is causing a major pressure zone inside the Pacific Ocean, which is sucking in winds even from the Indian Ocean. So our vapour-laden winds instead of coming to India are now being sucked into the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Trade winds have also reportedly changed direction.

A second weather situation is also emerging in the Indian Ocean called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This is a natural climate phenomenon known for varying surface sea temperature oscillations in the region. It changes from positive to negative, defined by changing temperature patterns in the ocean. Depending on the charge, the phenomenon gives results. For example, a positive IOD is set to ward off El Niño dryness but provide more vapour to the Indian subcontinent.

But in 2026, scientists are predicting a neutral IOD, which may not have much impact on El Niño. The second big problem is the increase in western climatic disturbances. These are clouds and winds that are blowing into the Indian subcontinent, often bringing untimely winds and hailstorms. There is also an over-2000-km-long cloud formation waiting to descend south into the subcontinent, which is also causing deep climatic distress. India right now is caught between a heatwave and erratic rainstorms.

There is also a global consensus that El Niño events usually result in a spiking of global temperatures. In the past, they have potentially caused great global famines, killing millions over the centuries.

Another problem slowly creeping up is the shifting of our North Pole. Since the 1990s, it has been aggressively moving towards Siberia. Compared to its usual speed of 15 kms/year since 1990, it has moved 55 km (34 miles) per year towards Siberia. This could also have an impact on the Earth’s magnetic fields, affecting solar flares and interacting with the atmosphere and weather system eventually.

Considering some of these events, it is apparent that the subcontinent will be hit with erratic monsoons, even higher temperatures, and drought and flood-like situations, which will have a detrimental effect on agrarian production. The Iran war and shortage of fossil fuels and agri-chemicals will exacerbate the crisis. Putting food, water, and our sovereignty at risk.

Agriculture stood as a beacon of light during the Covid crisis, but with the current circumstances, even agriculture could take a heavy beating. So what can India do?

The first step towards preparedness should start with weather alerts. Farmers should be given weather data and weather alerts. District-level crop planting schedules should be broadcasted at the block level. So farmers are better prepared for untimely rain. District-wise multi-cropping plans should also be introduced for the farmers.

To climate-proof fields, farmers should opt for multi-cropping instead of monocultures of paddy. Depending on the agroclimatic zone and land type, farmers can choose from a variety of millets, legumes, and paddy for multi-cropping. That can be planted between June and July. This will prepare them for all weather situations.

The government needs to also keep district-level emergency seed stocks, just in case there is massive crop damage in one region. Farmers should have access to seeds for resowing. Native varieties of seeds should be kept in government stocks, as they are more climate resilient and more adaptable to heat, flood, and drought-like situations. Similarly, block-level organic manure or cow manure dump yards should be created or financially incentivised to supplement the fertiliser supply.

Rural entrepreneurs should also be encouraged to make biopesticides and biostimulants to generate rural employment and reduce the chemical pesticide demand.

Crop insurance schemes should be implemented and governed by a public sector company so that fair compensation and assessments are done. Potential weather damage this year should be covered under the crop insurance scheme.

Water is our major area of focus. Due to the erratic rains, water availability in the country could suffer. Starting from less snow on the Himalayas to delayed monsoons, all threaten our water sovereignty. We need a policy shift and have to rely on older systems of city and village planning.

Starting from rural India, all villages or blocks should have a water rejuvenation plan. Each district first needs to plan out its waterways—creeks, rivulets, rivers, ponds, etc—and and compare them with the older designs. Using simple mud and mortar structures, our ancestors had enough water to drink. Instead of reinventing the wheel, we could aggressively build a network of small ponds in our rural towns to catch as much rainwater as possible.

Even bigger cities towards the outer regions can have water reservoirs which are recharging the groundwater and catching the rainwater. This would boost the water availability.

Forestation ought to be the government’s priority. Native biodiversity and medicinal trees should be encouraged across the country. Forests also act as catchments for the river systems, hence playing a dual role of increasing water availability and providing nutrition.

To conclude, our world is in deep turmoil. To be prepared for all eventualities, India must put extra efforts into bolstering its sustainable agrarian production and water availability. One hopes we embrace our ancient agrarian wisdom and pivot towards a more sustainable food system which is nourishing and climate-resilient. It is the only way we can be ready for any extreme climate events even in the future.

(The author is an independent agri-policy analyst and former director – Policy and Outreach, National Seed Association of India. The views expressed are personal and solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)