Galwan was a turning point as old framework of India-China ties collapsed: Ex-foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale

Former foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale has said that the 2020 Galwan Valley clash marked a major turning point in India-China relations, bringing an end to the old framework that had governed ties between the two neighbours for decades.

Speaking to Firstpost about his new book China's Wars: The Politics and Diplomacy Behind its Military Coercion, Gokhale argued that China continues to rely on military pressure, diplomacy, negotiations and information warfare as interconnected tools to advance its geopolitical interests.

According to him, while Beijing has largely avoided major wars since the 1970s, it has increasingly employed what he described as "grey-zone warfare"- the use of limited force and coercive tactics below the threshold of full-scale conflict. He said this approach allows China to exert pressure on rivals without triggering a war.

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Force, diplomacy and propaganda work together

Gokhale stressed that military power represents only one element of China's broader strategy. He said that Beijing combines the threat of force with diplomacy, negotiations and propaganda campaigns aimed at shaping public opinion both domestically and internationally.

One of the defining features of Chinese strategy, he noted, is the desire to "win without fighting." For that reason, information warfare and diplomatic manoeuvring play a critical role alongside military capabilities.

He cautioned against viewing Chinese actions solely through a military lens, arguing that psychological pressure and narrative-building are equally important components of Beijing's approach.

China watching a changing world order

Discussing the current global situation, Gokhale said that the international order established after World War II has weakened, while no clear alternative framework has yet emerged. In this uncertain environment, he believes China is adopting a cautious "wait-and-watch" approach.

He pointed to ongoing conflicts involving Russia and Ukraine, as well as tensions involving the United States and Iran, saying these developments offer important lessons for Beijing.

While China continues to pursue economic and technological advancement and aspires to rival the United States as the world's leading power, he said that Beijing is currently observing how major global conflicts unfold before making significant moves.

India's challenge extends beyond the border

Gokhale said that India has become more aware of the China challenge since the Galwan clash. He described the incident as 'a wake-up call' not only for policymakers and the military but also for the broader public.

"Galwan was a turning point because the old framework of the relationship collapsed," he said, adding that a new generation of Indians has gained a deeper understanding of the challenges posed by China.

However, he argued that the challenge is not limited to military issues. He said that China presents economic, technological and geopolitical challenges that require a whole-of-nation response.

He called for faster implementation of the 'Make in India' programme, greater focus on strategic manufacturing and stronger technological capabilities. He also stressed the importance of enhancing India's maritime awareness, noting that the Chinese Navy is expected to have a more significant presence in the Indian Ocean by the end of this decade.

Grey-zone pressure likely along the Line of Actual Control

Looking ahead, Gokhale said that India is more likely to face grey-zone coercion from China than a conventional military conflict over the next eight to ten years.

He cited the unresolved nature of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and China's geographical advantages on the Tibetan Plateau as factors that make such tactics attractive to Beijing.

At the same time, he argued that India today possesses greater capabilities than before, making the outcome of any larger conflict less predictable from China's perspective.

Gokhale pointed to recent improvements in military infrastructure, troop deployment and strategic projects such as the Zojila tunnel as evidence that India is preparing for future challenges along the border.

Understanding China's mindset

The former diplomat also argued that China's frequent description of its actions as "defensive" stems from a longstanding sense of 'historical victimhood' cultivated through its political and educational systems.

He said that China initiated all of its major conflicts between 1949 and 1979 and continues to create tensions in areas such as the South China Sea and the Himalayan region.

According to Gokhale, one of the biggest mistakes made by China's rivals is accepting Beijing's claim that its rise will be entirely peaceful. He argued that China views the international system hierarchically, seeing the US as its only true equal while treating neighbouring countries as unequal partners.

Public awareness of China essential

Reflecting on his research, Gokhale said that one of the most important lessons is the need to pay closer attention to China's domestic politics, which often influence its external behaviour.

He urged both policymakers and ordinary citizens to deepen their understanding of China, describing it as a long-term challenge that India cannot ignore.

"We can change friends but we can't change neighbours," he said, emphasising the importance of informed public debate and sustained engagement with issues relating to China.