Watch: ‘I think it’s great’: Trump backs UAE exit from OPEC, sees lower oil prices

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday threw his weight behind the United Arab Emirates’ decision to quit the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, saying the move could help bring down global oil and fuel prices at a time of heightened volatility driven by the Iran war.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said the move was “great” and added that it could eventually bring down gasoline and energy prices. He also pointed to internal strains within OPEC, saying the group was “having some problems.

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The UAE announced on Tuesday that it would exit OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance from May 1, ending decades of coordination on production quotas. The move is being seen as a significant blow to the cartel’s ability to manage global supply and stabilise prices.

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Strategic break amid conflict pressures

The decision comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions in West Asia that have disrupted oil flows and pushed prices sharply higher since late February. Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for global crude shipments — has constrained exports from Gulf producers, including the UAE.

Oil prices climbed above $125 a barrel on Thursday, the highest since 2022, as fears of a prolonged US–Iran conflict tightened supply concerns, with Brent up 6.2 per cent to $125.36 and WTI rising 2.3 per cent to $109.38.

Abu Dhabi said the exit followed a review of its production policy and capacity, concluding that operating outside OPEC would better align with its long-term economic and energy strategy. The country has also faced repeated security threats linked to the conflict, adding urgency to its policy shift.

Supply outlook: tight now, looser later

Despite the geopolitical disruption, the UAE’s exit could reshape the oil supply outlook over the medium term. Goldman Sachs said the move introduces upside risks to production once current constraints ease.

The bank expects UAE output to recover to around 3.8 million barrels per day by October 2026, from roughly 3.6 million bpd before the conflict, with potential to exceed 4.5 million bpd as capacity expands outside OPEC limits.

Goldman also estimates cumulative Gulf crude production losses of about 1.83 billion barrels through December 2026, suggesting inventories will remain tight in the near term before a potential replenishment cycle.