When Hormuz shut, food — not oil — became the Gulf’s real crisis

The Strait of Hormuz is usually discussed in terms of oil prices and global energy markets. We watch the tickers and worry about the price of gas. But on February 28, the narrative flipped. It wasn't about what was flowing out of the Gulf; it was about what couldn't get in.

And when a key “maritime artery” gets blocked, the impact is felt both in the markets and much closer to home, at the dining table.

For the 50 million people across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the impact was immediate. Nearly 80 per cent of their food supply was suddenly stranded on the wrong side of the water.

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What began as a military blockade spiralled into a full-blown “grocery emergency” in a jiffy.

The logistics of a 'total chokepoint'

At its narrowest, the Strait is just 21 nautical miles (about 39 kilometres) wide. But despite that, it functions as a critical artery for the Gulf, carrying tens of billions of dollars’ worth of food imports into the GCC each year.

For context, the GCC imported roughly 35.2 million metric tonnes of food in 2025 according to market analysis data. While 2025 market forecasts from firms like Alpen Capital and Daedal valued the GCC food market at over $30 billion, they also showed a stark vulnerability. Nearly 90 per cent dependency on seaborne staples like rice and wheat. This meant that despite the high-tech domestic investments frequently cited in Vision 2030 updates, the region’s survival remained tethered to the United Nations-documented flow of 129 ships per day.

So when “Operation Epic Fury” began, the impact was almost immediate.

Within the first 72 hours, container ship arrivals at major hubs like Jebel Ali Port and Khalifa Port reportedly plunged by as much as 80 per cent, as shipping lines stalled, re-routed, or avoided the corridor altogether. Because the region depends so heavily on maritime logistics, this wasn’t just a delay; it quickly became a full-blown supply shock.

As a result, governments and retailers were forced into an immediate pivot. Air freight and overland routes suddenly became the only viable alternatives, but they came at a steep premium, driving up costs across the supply chain and adding fresh pressure on already strained food markets.

A race against rot

The Gulf’s food security looks strong on paper, but in practice, it is uneven.

Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold strategic reserves of staples such as wheat and rice that can last four to six months, as announced by Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, Minister of Economy and Tourism. However, these buffers don’t extend to fresh and diverse food items.

Perishable food is especially vulnerable. Fresh fruits and leafy greens typically have a shelf life of around two weeks from farm to table. When shipping routes are disrupted and vessels are forced to take longer detoures (re-routing around Africa), travel times can double. By the time shipments reached Red Sea ports in mid-March, many perishable goods had already spoiled, making them unusable on arrival.

The challenge extends beyond fresh produce.

While countries like the UAE produce most of their eggs domestically, they still rely heavily on imported feed—such as soy and corn—for poultry and livestock. Around 80 per cent of this feed passes through the Strait of Hormuz. When that flow is interrupted, it creates a cascading effect. Without sufficient feed, farmers are forced to reduce livestock, raising the risk of a sharp drop in protein supply.

And ultimately, these supply hiccups translate into higher costs for consumers.

India in the matrix

India too was not spared by the Hormuz blockade.

While India feeds the Gulf, meaning it exports a large portion of the region’s food and helps sustain their food supply, it simultaneously relies heavily on the region for critical inputs, such as fertilisers. Roughly 20–25 per cent of the country’s total fertiliser imports come from the Arabian Gulf, including 46 per cent of urea from Oman and 42 per cent of potash (MOP) from Saudi Arabia.

Recognising the threat to agriculture, the Government of India issued an emergency Natural Gas Order on March 10, to prioritise fertiliser plants. Without Gulf-sourced ammonia, the upcoming Kharif sowing season could have faced serious disruption.

Fortunately, India entered the crisis with a stockpile of 18.01 million metric tonnes of fertiliser (a 36.6 per cent increase over 2025), providing a critical three-month buffer to sustain agricultural production while alternative supply channels are explored.

Building on that lifeline, keeping the Strait of Hormuz fully open is absolutely critical. Because, with Iran’s changing rules, it’s not just markets that wobble, you feel it in what ends up on your plate.