War or dialogue? Colombians vote on Petro’s peace legacy amid rising security fears

Colombians began voting on Sunday in a presidential election that could redefine the country’s approach to escalating violence linked to guerrilla groups involved in drug trafficking. Voters are choosing between candidates who favour continuing negotiations with armed groups and those advocating a tougher military response.

Opinion polls ahead of the vote showed left-wing senator Ivan Cepeda leading the race, buoyed by support from outgoing President Gustavo Petro. However, he faces strong competition from hard-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and conservative senator Paloma Valencia.

Should no candidate secure an outright majority, as polls suggest, the two leading contenders will advance to a runoff scheduled for June 21.

The election is largely being seen as a verdict on Petro’s “total peace” initiative. Colombia’s first leftist president sought to persuade guerrilla factions that remained outside the landmark 2016 peace accord to lay down their weapons, but his efforts yielded limited results.

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Although Petro is not on the ballot, political analyst Yann Basset of Bogotá’s Rosario University said the president remains the dominant figure in the race.

Despite his absence from the ballot, "the campaign revolves around Petro," said Yann Basset, political science professor at Bogota's University of Rosario. "He's at the center of all the discussions."

Car bombs, attack drones and the assassination of a presidential candidate pockmarked the polarizing leader's four-year term, and experts say guerrillas used the peace talks to fortify their positions.

Whoever replaces Petro will have to reckon with an alphabet soup of criminal groups engaging in drug trafficking, illegal mining and extortion.

But joblessness has fallen and the government has hiked the minimum wage, buffeting Petro's protege Cepeda.

The son of a communist leader who was assassinated by paramilitaries, Cepeda was an architect of the 2016 peace deal that saw the Marxist rebel army FARC disband.

He has pledged to continue pursuing "total peace" and extend social programs in a deeply unequal society.

"Today power is on our hands, that of the people. We don't want the return of the oligarchy and the bourgeoisie," Jose Cruz, a 60-year-old former left-wing militant said.

Right-wing challengers

Dialogue with guerrillas, however, is not to the taste of Cepeda's right-wing rivals, who are betting on security fears to shunt the left out of office.

Polls suggest Cepeda could face millionaire lawyer De la Espriella in the run-off.

De la Espriella, dubbed "The Tiger" and an admirer of US President Donald Trump, wants to take the fight to armed groups in the air, on land and at sea -- echoing the hard-on-crime rhetoric that has propelled a wave of recent right-wing wins in Latin America.

"What De la Espriella wants is to put the house in order," Wilmer Bolivar, a 47-year-old ex-soldier, told AFP.

Conservative Senator Paloma Valencia, a close ally of kingmaker and former president Alvaro Uribe, favors the same militarized approach.

"We are going to put an end to 'total peace' in order to impose total security," she declared on the campaign trail.

Voters seek stability

Despite widespread concerns about violence, authorities expect election day itself to remain relatively peaceful.

Judge Alvaro Echeverry of the National Electoral Council said even criminal groups often observe informal ceasefires during elections to allow voting to proceed without disruption.

Polling stations will remain open for eight hours, closing at 4 p.m. local time, with results expected around two hours later.

To safeguard the process, the government has deployed more than 408,000 security personnel nationwide.

Colombia remains the world’s largest producer of cocaine, and the illegal drug trade continues to fuel the country’s highest levels of violence in a decade.

Public anxiety has also been heightened by the killing of right-wing candidate Miguel Uribe last year, an attack authorities blamed on a leftist guerrilla organisation.

In April, a bombing on a highway in the southwestern department of Cauca killed 21 people, making it one of the deadliest attacks on civilians in recent years. The group responsible later described the incident as a “tactical error.”

Many voters say they are looking for a leader capable of restoring a sense of stability.

“The next president needs to give us some peace of mind,” said Maria Eugenia Motato, a 57-year-old homemaker from Suarez in Cauca. “There is so much conflict, and people are very anxious.”

With inputs from agencies