Ukraine war casualties cross 2 million as Russia loses 30,000 soldiers a month: Study

The casualties in the Ukraine war have crossed 2 million, with Russia losing 1.4 million soldiers over the past four years, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Of the 1.4 million casualties, 450,000 were killed and the rest were injured, the study said.

While Russia's much larger population and the state's ironclad grip on society have allowed Russian leader Vladimir Putin to keep pouring new recruits into the battlefield to replenish the ranks, casualties have now begun to surpass recruitment as Ukraine has gained momentum.

In recent months, Russia has been losing 30,000-34,000 soldiers a month against an average monthly recruitment rate of 27,000.

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The study was published at a time when Ukraine has taken the war to the Russian mainland with long-range drone strikes across the country, hitting oil refineries, arms manufacturing plants, military facilities, other critical infrastructure, and supply lines.

For the past three months, Ukraine has also gained more territory than it has lost.

Despite these advances, Russia continues to enjoy a 3:1 numerical advantage, with more than 400,000 Russians believed to be facing around 250,000 Ukrainians on the frontlines, according to The New York Times.

Whether Russia can convert this numerical advantage into territorial gains remains questionable. The situation has become so severe that the average life expectancy of Russian soldiers on the battlefield has reportedly fallen to just 20-35 minutes, while troops are being deployed with only 10-21 days of training.

'Russia faces darkest period in war'

Russia is currently in the "darkest period of the war" since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to Seth G Jones, one of the authors of the study.

“The war has come home to everyday Russians, who are paying the price of President Putin’s war with a sputtering economy, skyrocketing prices, a growing number of body bags coming back from the front lines and drone strikes in Russian cities,” Jones further told The Times.

But some factors continue to work in Russia's favour. For one, its larger population means Ukraine is still losing a greater share of its military personnel despite suffering far fewer casualties than Russia.

Over the past four years, Putin has sustained the war effort through conscription, the recruitment of convicted criminals, the enlistment of undertrials and accused persons, and debt-clearance-for-combat schemes. Yet Putin appears set to launch a fresh mobilisation later this year amid mounting casualties.