Ahead of midterms, Trump’s approval hits a new low — again

Amid spiralling inflation and unpopular policies, US President Donald Trump’s approval has sunk to a new low — again.

Trump’s approval rating fell to 39 per cent in May from 40 per cent the previous month, according to Emerson College’s survey.

The decline is uniform across surveys: the Economist/YouGov’s latest weekly survey found that his approval fell to 34 per cent from 37 per cent the previous week. The rejection of some of Trump’s defining policies by his own constituents could be the most concerning part for him.

A majority of Republicans at 52 per cent —and 45 per cent of people identifying as being part of the Maga movement— opposed Trump’s so-called Anti-Weaponization Fund — a $1.8 billion slush fund of taxpayers’ dollars to funnel money to his allies who claim to be politically persecuted by Democrats.

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Rejection of the slush fund, which Trump created by suing his own Justice Department and then settling the case with it, was such that even a section of Republican congresspersons opposed it — the Republican-controlled Congress has otherwise rubber-stamped Trump’s every move irrespective of ethical, legal, or constitutional concerns.

These survey results have come at a time when Republicans are rattled that Trump’s unpopular policies —the Iran war, tariffs, the crackdown on immigrants, and the slush fund, among others— could doom their prospects in the midterm elections. A compilation of surveys by the New York Times shows that Democrats have a consistent edge over Republicans. While the party out of power almost always gains in midterm, the stakes are considered existential this time.

Unlike in normal presidencies, such as those of Presidents Joe Biden or Barack Obama, where Congress serves as a check on presidential power, a Republican trifecta has meant that Trump has had no check whatsoever on his power. Trump has bulldozed his policies and a pliant Congress and friendly Supreme Court have turned a blind eye. But that could change if Democrats flip control of even one congressional chamber in the midterms.

Trump has himself sounded the alarm, saying he would be impeached if Democrats win the midterms.

Such an existential contest has led Republicans to turn to manipulating the elections.

Across Republican-controlled states, the party has reshaped electoral maps to create constituencies that maximise Republican seats. Trump has also sought to appoint pliant federal judges who would rule in his favour irrespective of the legality of a case if an election result were challenged in their courts.

Even though Democrats would win the midterms as per every survey, such Republican manipulations mean victory is not certain.

Nate Cohn of The Times noted that a four-point advantage for Democrats would normally mean a clear victory, but the reshaping of maps has complicated the picture. For comparison, surveys over the past month put the Democrats’ advantage in the range of 6-15 points.

"Democrats wouldn’t have much margin for error: A few mediocre Democratic recruits, some ill-timed retirements, an unexpected demographic shift or even plain bad luck in contests with razor-thin margins could be enough to give Republicans control even if the GOP loses the popular vote by a modest margin," noted Cohn, referring to instances where one party wins the overall popular vote but the other wins more seats.