Russia is preparing for 'provocation' against Baltic states or Poland to test Nato's unity: Report

As the Russia-Ukraine war continues to escalate, Western intelligence sources warned that Russia is preparing a "possible provocation" against two countries on Nato's eastern flank. The warnings were issued to Poland and the Baltic states, and it is believed that the provocation would test the cohesion of the Western military alliance.

According to The Guardian, sources also feared that there could be danger on the horizon because the Kremlin is coming under pressure from Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg. “We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.” However, it would be well short of a full-scale attack," Latvian intelligence said in a statement on Monday.

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A senior political source from a second Nato member state made a similar statement last week. They said “we are picking up intelligence” that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states”. They argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be willing to test US support for some of Nato’s smallest member countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – in a desperate effort “to throw the dice” as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine.

Polish PM shares similar concerns

On Thursday night, Poland's Prime Minister went on record sharing his own concern. “We also share, without exception, the ‌opinion that the situation is very ​unstable and various types of ⁠escalation can be expected ​in the ​coming ​weeks and ​months,” Donald Tusk said at a press conference after the Eastern Flank summit in Gdansk. “We will want to prepare as a group of countries directly exposed to this risk.”

Meanwhile, Latvian intelligence said Russia was not capable of opening a second front, but was considering “hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems”.

The warnings are coming at a time when Russia’s advance in Ukraine has stalled. This has raised questions about whether the Kremlin would turn to alternative strategies to break the deadlock or change the dynamics in its favour.