'Prepare for El Niño', says WMO; experts warn of weak monsoon risk in India

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean and are likely to influence weather patterns across the world in the coming months, increasing the risk of extreme temperatures, floods, droughts and unusual rainfall.

According to the UN weather agency, unusually warm ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are driving the development of El Nino, with a 90 per cent probability that the climate phenomenon will emerge.

The WMO said that above-average temperatures are expected across most parts of the world between June and August, highlighting the need for governments to prepare for potential impacts on livelihoods, agriculture, water resources and public health.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the development as an urgent warning for the world. “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said, urging countries to accelerate climate action, strengthen early warning systems and protect vulnerable populations from the effects of extreme weather.

More from World

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and generally lasts between 9 and 12 months.

The phenomenon usually begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February. Its effects are often felt globally, with impacts on temperatures and rainfall becoming more pronounced in the year following its development.

While each El Nino event differs in intensity and geographical area, it is commonly associated with wetter conditions in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia. At the same time, it often brings less rainfall to Central America, northern South America, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.

What could it mean for India?

Experts say the developing El Niño poses significant risks for India's monsoon-dependent economy.

Rudrath Avinashi, Programme Officer at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said that the 90 per cent probability of an El Niño event substantially increases the likelihood of a deficient monsoon.

Furthermore, he mentions that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a 60 per cent chance of below-normal monsoon conditions, compared with a historical baseline of around 16 per cent.

A weaker monsoon could affect kharif crop production, particularly rice, pulses and oilseeds, leading to lower agricultural output and higher food prices. This concern becomes more significant as agriculture continues to support around 150 million workers in the country.

Avinashi also warned that the economic impact could be compounded by extreme weather events such as heatwaves. Together, these factors could place additional pressure on household finances, food security and broader economic growth.

The WMO said that advanced forecasting systems now provide governments with valuable time to plan and prepare, making early action critical to reducing the impacts of El Nino.