Moscow preparing for military confrontation with West ‘within next decade’, says Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has issued a warning that Russia is gearing up for a potential military confrontation with the West within next decade, suggesting that a counter build-up of armed forces could serve as a deterrent against such actions.

According to The Guardian report, the head of the intelligence service highlighted that this assessment stems from Russian intentions to increase twofold the number of forces positioned along its border with NATO members, including Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Various Western officials have also raised concerns about Russia's military threat to nations along NATO's eastern flank and have advocate for Europe to bolster its defences by rearming, according to Reuters.

“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with Nato within the next decade or so,” The Guardian quoted Kaupo Rosin as telling reporters during the release of Estonia’s national security threats report.

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A military attack by Russia is “highly unlikely” in the short term, he said, partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russian buildup of forces was matched in Europe.

“If we are not prepared, the likelihood [of a military Russian attack] would be much higher than without any preparation,” Rosin added.

Estonia and the other Baltic States have increased their military spending to over 2% of the value of their economies after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and Nato allies have raised their presence in those countries.