In win for MBS, Trump approves nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia with few safeguards

In a major victory for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, US President Donald Trump has approved a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia with few safeguards, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The deal has sparked concerns that it is not robust enough to prevent the potential military use of uranium enriched in Saudi Arabia. Critics have also argued that Trump's agenda of dismantling Iran's nuclear programme would suffer a blow if he were to grant uranium-enrichment capabilities to its neighbour.

While the US-Saudi nuclear deal would deny a large market to China and Russia, there are fears about the lack of safeguards, according to Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official who advised both Republican and Democratic administrations on non-proliferation issues.

“The agreement could help revitalise the US nuclear industry, strengthen US-Saudi ties and deny Russia and China a strategically important role in the Saudi nuclear program. But unless it contains adequate constraints, including on enrichment, it could increase nuclear proliferation risks in the Middle East and beyond,” Einhorn told The Journal.

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The US-Saudi nuclear deal is expected to generate tens of billions of dollars for American businesses, which would be involved in developing Saudi nuclear infrastructure. But the real attraction for the Saudis could be the enrichment capabilities that the deal would enable.

Under the agreement, as reactor projects advance, the United States and Saudi Arabia will conduct a two-year study to determine whether enriching uranium in Saudi Arabia would be commercially viable instead of relying on imported fuel. If the study reaches a favourable conclusion, the United States will build an enrichment facility in the kingdom.

Safeguards' absence in US-Saudi nuclear deal sparks concerns

Saudi Arabia has rejected the so-called 'gold standard' commitment never to enrich uranium domestically or reprocess spent reactor fuel. Neighbouring United Arab Emirates (UAE) has made that commitment, according to The Journal.

The Saudis have also rejected the 'Additional Protocol', an arrangement implemented by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that would have provided more rigorous monitoring and inspections.

Despite concerns that the absence of such commitments could lead to uranium being diverted for military purposes or trigger a nuclear race in the region, The Journal reported that Trump administration officials said a separate agreement negotiated with Saudi Arabia would still provide adequate monitoring of US-supplied nuclear sites. Critics, however, remain unconvinced by the administration's assurances.

Foreign policy experts have also criticised the deal because it had previously been conditioned on Saudi Arabia normalising ties with Israel under the Joe Biden administration. According to critics, the Trump administration has now rewarded the Saudis with a nuclear deal without receiving anything in return.

Critics have also argued that granting uranium-enrichment capabilities to Saudi Arabia would place Trump in an awkward position as it comes at a time when his administration is pressing Iran, Saudi Arabia's regional rival, to accept absolute restrictions on its nuclear programme.

There are also concerns about the fact that Saudi Arabia has not ruled out developing a nuclear weapon.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously said that the kingdom would acquire a nuclear weapon if Iran acquired one. Moreover, owing to the Saudi financing for Pakistan's nuclear programme, historically close ties between the two countries, and their mutual defence pact, some observers believe the two sides have a tacit understanding under which Saudi Arabia would have access to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal if it ever felt the need to deploy or use nuclear weapons.