Fear, flight and facts: South Africa braces for anti-migrant protests as thousands flee fearing violence

South Africa is on edge as anti-migrant protests are scheduled to begin across the country on Tuesday (June 30), with authorities warning against violence and thousands of foreign nationals already fleeing their homes amid fears of xenophobic attacks.

The protests have been called by anti-immigration groups demanding the removal of undocumented foreigners. While organisers insist that protests will be peaceful, previous demonstrations have often turned violent, targeting both documented and undocumented foreign nationals.

Amid growing tensions, President Cyril Ramaphosa has appealed for calm, acknowledging public concerns over illegal immigration while warning that violence, intimidation and vigilantism would not be tolerated.

"The right to protest is enshrined in our Constitution," he said, adding that demonstrations must remain peaceful and lawful. He also stressed that foreign nationals legally residing in South Africa are entitled to the protection of the country's laws and Constitution.

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Thousands flee as fears of violence grow

Even before the protests began, thousands of migrants had either left South Africa or moved into temporary shelters after anti-immigrant groups urged foreigners to leave the country by Tuesday.

The protests are being organised by groups including March & March and Operation Dudula, which say they are campaigning against illegal immigration rather than immigrants in general.

However, Operation Dudula has previously been accused of targeting foreign-owned businesses, checking people's identity documents in public places and attempting to prevent foreign nationals from accessing public hospitals. Human rights organisations have repeatedly warned that such campaigns risk fuelling xenophobic violence.

The latest protests come against the backdrop of a long history of attacks on migrants in South Africa, where outbreaks of anti-foreigner violence have periodically erupted over the past two decades.

Why are migrants being targeted?

Anti-immigrant groups argue that undocumented migrants are responsible for a range of problems facing South Africa. They claim illegal immigration has overwhelmed border controls, taken jobs from South Africans, increased crime and placed unbearable pressure on public services such as schools and hospitals.

These concerns have resonated with sections of the public, particularly as South Africa continues to grapple with high unemployment, slow economic growth and one of the world's highest crime rates.

But available evidence suggests that many of the claims driving public anger are either exaggerated or unsupported by data.

What does the data say?

One of the most common claims is that South Africa is being "overrun" by illegal immigrants.

However, using South Africa's national statistics agency data Reuters estimated that, in 2023 that there were around 3.1 million migrants in the country, accounting for approximately 4.1 per cent of the population. That share has actually declined from 5.6 per cent a decade earlier.

By comparison, according to 2024 United Nations data, migrants make up around 17 per cent of Britain's population, 22 per cent of Canada's and nearly 30 per cent of Australia's.

Another frequent allegation is that foreigners are responsible for South Africa's high crime rate.

While South African police do not publish crime statistics based on nationality, a Reuters report suggested that in 2017 foreign nationals accounted for about 6 per cent of the country's prison population. Around 1,380 of those inmates were imprisoned solely for immigration-related offences, including entering the country illegally.

Claims that migrants are taking jobs away from South Africans are also disputed by research. A 2018 World Bank report found that every migrant employed in South Africa helps create roughly two jobs for locals through business activity and consumer spending. Migrants earn income and spend much of it within the country, supporting local businesses and employment.

Similarly there is little evidence that undocumented migrants are overwhelming public services. Since accessing public schools and hospitals generally requires registration, undocumented migrants are often reluctant to use these services for fear of being identified by authorities.

A nation divided

The protests underscore South Africa's increasingly polarised debate over immigration, where genuine public concerns over unemployment, crime and public services intersect with longstanding xenophobic sentiment.

With emotions running high, authorities now face the challenge of ensuring that demonstrations starting from Tuesday remain peaceful while protecting vulnerable communities from violence.