China on verge of another Covid pandemic? Rebound expected in January with JN.1 sub-variant

COVID-19 may possibly make a rebound in China this January, with the JN.1 sub-variant highly likely to develop into the dominant variant in the country, Chinese health authorities said.

While current rate of COVID-19 cases remain low, with a positive test rate under one per cent at surveillance points, the National Health Commission (NHC) highlighted the increasing presence of JN.1.

"Due to continuous importation of the JN.1 variant strain, a gradual decrease in domestic influenza, and a decline in population immunity, the COVID-19 epidemic may rebound in January, with the JN.1 variant highly likely to develop into the dominant variant in China," Wang Dayan, director of the China National Influenza Center, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), said.

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Wang further said recent data from the multi-channel monitoring system showed that the positive rate of COVID-19 virus testing in sentinel hospitals remained below one per cent after the New Year's Day holiday, and the proportion of the JN.1 variant strain showed an upward trend.

Hospitals preparing for surge

As per China's NHS, at present, respiratory diseases are still mainly influenza, and COVID-19 infection is at a relatively low level, with the overall medical services currently stable and orderly.

Despite this, hospitals across China are preparing for a potential surge. There has been increase in training programs, improved human resource allocation and leveraging technology to streamline processes.

"High-risk groups like pregnant women, children and the elderly should prioritise annual influenza vaccination and maintain healthy habits," CGTN quoted Wang Guiqiang, head of the infectious diseases department at Peking University First Hospital, as saying.

He further emphasised on the importance of understanding that contracting one type of respiratory illness does not guarantee immunity against others in the short term.

Meanwhile, experts believe China will continue to experience various respiratory pathogens alternating or co-circulating this winter and in the coming spring, with influenza viruses still dominating in the short term.