As Armenia votes, Pashinyan’s European path faces domestic and Russian resistance

Armenians will head to the polls on June 7 in a closely watched election that could shape the country's future for years to come, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeking a fresh mandate on promise of closer integration with Europe.

Since coming to power in 2018, Pashinyan has steadily moved Armenia away from Moscow's sphere of influence, launching the process of European Union integration and pursuing closer political cooperation with Western partners.

His government has also made progress in normalising relations with Azerbaijan.

Earlier this year, Pashinyan hosted a summit in Yerevan attended by European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, underscoring Armenia's increasingly Western-oriented foreign policy.

Falling support despite foreign policy gains

Despite these diplomatic achievements, Pashinyan's popularity has declined significantly. According to a BBC report, support for his government has fallen from around 54 per cent in 2021 to roughly 30 per cent today.

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The main source of public anger remains the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, the disputed region that Azerbaijan regained control over in 2023. Many Armenians blame Pashinyan for making concessions during the peace process and accuse him of failing to adequately defend Armenian interests.

Public opinion remains deeply divided over the peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

The opposition is led by several political groups, including the Armenia Alliance headed by former President Robert Kocharyan. Former President Serzh Sargsyan has also urged voters to back opposition candidates.

Both leaders argue that Armenia's security depends on restoring stronger military and economic ties with Russia.

Pashinyan's most prominent challenger is billionaire businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who built his fortune in Russia. Karapetyan is currently under house arrest on allegations of plotting to overthrow the government, and his campaign has been conducted through representatives.

Russia uses economic leverage

The election campaign has unfolded under growing pressure from Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently warned Armenia about the economic consequences of moving closer to the EU and highlighted the benefits of remaining within Russia-led economic structures.

In recent weeks, Russia imposed restrictions on several Armenian exports, including flowers, mineral water, cognac, fruits and vegetables.

Russia remains Armenia's largest trading partner, accounting for more than one-third of its foreign trade. It also supplies Armenia with natural gas at heavily discounted prices, giving Moscow significant economic leverage.

Tense campaign environment

The campaign has also been marked by political tensions. Opposition groups have accused Pashinyan of increasingly authoritarian behaviour and of using state resources to strengthen his electoral position.

A recent confrontation between the Prime Minister and displaced Karabakh Armenians drew criticism after a civil activist was arrested following an altercation linked to the campaign.

Polls, cited in the report, indicate that Pashinyan's Civil Contract party remains the single strongest political force. However, a large share of voters say they do not trust any political leader, reflecting widespread frustration with the country's political class.