Vantage | South Africa's Palestine connection and why it's suing Israel for genocide

South Africa has filed a lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is like the United Nations' court. The lawsuit says Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians. As per the 1948 Genocide Convention, any act that tries to destroy a religious or racial group is “genocide”, and Israel has signed this convention. The first hearing is on January 11 and 12. But will it force Israel to end the war? It might not.

Only 50 percent of the ICJ rulings result in compliance. In high-stakes cases, it is much lower. Like in the Russia-Ukraine war, the ICJ asked Russia to stop the attacks on Ukraine. Moscow has not. In 2018, it asked the US to lift some sanctions on Iran, and again, Washington did not.

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So don't expect a ruling to change anything. Having said that, Israel did drop a surprise. Usually, it ignores such lawsuits, it doesn't bother turning up to fight them. But this time Israel is in the game.

But frankly, it is a risky decision. If you boycott the case and lose, no one cares, but if you fight and lose, people will mind. It could leave Israel red-faced. Most of the Muslim nations have supported the lawsuit, but the US says the case is without merit.

We can expect a provisional ruling in a matter of weeks or months, but a final verdict could take years.

Now, let's look at politics: Why did South Africa, of all countries, file this case? It's not a West Asian country. It is also not a Muslim or Arab country either. But yet there are three major reasons:

One is common history, South Africa suffered under colonialism. Later on, Black South Africans were treated as second-class citizens, that too, in their own land. South Africa says Israel has been doing the same to the Palestinians. This shared history led to warm relations of Palestine with South Africa. Anti-apartheid activists were close to the Palestinian leaders — consider Nelson Mandela and Palestinian political leader Yasser Arafat; they met multiple times and also shared a similar vision

If you go to Ramallah in the West Bank, you will find Mandela Square. The same ideology still rules both sides. Mandela's party is in power in South Africa. Arafat's PLO still controls the West Bank, hence the warmth.

Reason number two, a shared suspicion towards the West. South Africa's apartheid regime was backed by the US and the UK. If not directly, then tacitly.

They kept vetoing UN sanctions on South Africa. Again, it sounds familiar, as the West is now doing that with Israel. Many South Africans see Israel as a Western construct. A Western ‘puppet’ in West Asia. So they sympathise with Palestine.

Finally, the reason number three is pure politics. Some 22 Arab countries in the world, including a couple in northern Africa, but Israel is just one country. If you want loans or investments, Arab countries are a better bet. It is not saying principles are not involved, but it is not just the principles. This is because the same South Africa has also ignored international courts, like in 2015, when Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir visited the country. Bashir had an international criminal court warrant, but South Africa did not arrest him. Similarly in 2023, South Africa hosted the BRICS Summit. President Vladimir Putin of Russia was supposed to come, he too had an ICC warrant, but South Africa said that it was not a problem. As it turned out, Putin did not come, but you get the idea.

Chances are, this lawsuit will be the same — a lot of headlines, a lot of embarrassing moments, but in the end — no change on the ground.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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