US Sutra | India faces tough strategic choices post Trump-Xi summit

In the earlier part of this column, I argued that it is the unembarrassed, unapologetic projection of American power, especially under US President Donald J. Trump, that has raised hackles around the world. Such a reaction, though natural, even understandable, is shortsighted if not flawed.

Europeans critique American unilateralism while relying on U.S. security guarantees. This is also true, to a lesser extent, of Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea. India, too, has been a beneficiary of US power, but we are loath to acknowledge it because of what we might term sentimental nationalism if not Indian exceptionalism.

But let’s talk of a far more contentious and volatile entity: Taiwan. We can’t even call it a “country” lest the Chinese object. When it comes to Indo-Chinese relations, the asymmetry is glaring — it’s always one China, but multiple Indias.

During the recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, Trump repeatedly dodged and deflected questions on Taiwan. While touring the historic Temple of Heaven, when reporters badgered him on Taiwan, he responded, “Great place, incredible, China's beautiful.” When some journalists persisted, in the presence of Xi, Trump ignored the question and looked straight ahead. Quite contrary to his customary shooting his mouth off, Trump outplayed the press in this instance.

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In the private meeting in the Great Hall of the People, the Taiwan taunt continued. The Chinese delivered a blunt warning: mishandling Taiwan could lead to confrontation, even conflict. A position that was reiterated in the Chinese readout. The US side said nothing on this issue. Whether the US continues to arm Taiwan, also remains to be seen.

Instead, the US asserted that China supports its position on the denuclearisation of Iran and the opening of the Hormuz Strait. Naturally, there was no confirmation from the Chinese. Lack of denial, one might suppose, is confirmation enough in this instance.

All told, the summit, despite differing positions, indicates that if not quite a G2-style duopoly, America and China have agreed to an uneasy truce. For now. Stability, not confrontation, is the watchword. The world’s number one and number two powers are more intertwined and interlinked than either would like to acknowledge. At the same time, their fierce rivalry will not abate. China’s reference to the “Thucydides trap” only underscores its aim to topple the US.

But this may not be as easy, let alone inevitable, as some would like to believe. The fact is that China is an authoritarian society in which the state apparatus is used to control its own people. Not only its mainstream media but even social media are tightly bottled up. What the Chinese people themselves want is not clear, but the insecurity of their leadership as well as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), cannot be doubted.

China, moreover, has been unable to project global power except through stealth, through the back door, so to speak. It believes that doing nothing will weaken the US as the latter gets more and more entangled in trying to manage the uncertain and changing global order. In the end, it hopes, the prize of being the world’s greatest power, will be handed to it on a platter.

But, without boots on the ground, policing the globe is impossible. Robots, drones, and missiles notwithstanding, power by remote control can only go so far. As the US itself has realized in Iran. A country devastated and laid low, several tiers of leadership decapitated, still refuses to surrender.

Beijing floods global discourse with tales of U.S. bullying while pursuing its own aggressive Belt and Road debt-traps, South China Sea militarisation, and border incursions against India. Internal U.S. left-liberal elites, what some call the “woke” establishment, have aided this by “bleeding the beast.” Working against US interests from within by questioning alliances, prioritising identity over strength, and amplifying narratives of inherent American sin. But Trump’s aggressive pushback has startled the world: America will not keel over to please critics or atone for success.

India feels this tension acutely. As a vibrant democracy and natural partner in Cold War 2.0, we benefit enormously from U.S. technology, defence co-development, jet engines, semiconductors, quantum, and, above all, tech GCCs which employ millions in India. The rupee seems to be in a free fall, having declined from 84 to 95 to a dollar in just one year, from May 2024 to 2025. Paradoxically, business outsourced to India from the US, as well as Indian exports, benefit.

Yet, the oil and gas squeeze is hurting us badly right now. Our refining overcapacity and earlier profits from cheap oil are a cushion, but for how long? Worst of all, Operation Sindoor already confirmed a two-front war right on our borders, with Chinese “experts” on site in Pakistan using Chinese equipment to attack India.

What should India do? I have consistently argued that sanctimonious nationalism, disguised as nonalignment or strategic autonomy, has done us little good in the past. It will serve us even less in the turbulent future. Deal-making is not capitulation; it is pragmatism. Trade is the oldest form of non-coercive human exchange.

Bashful powers invite predation. The US, let us be clear, is not about to capitulate. If it does, India too, not only Taiwan, would be the loser. The Indian Ocean will be turned into the Chinese Ocean if the US cedes the Indo-Pacific to the Red dragon.

Geopolitics demands hard realism, not sentimental whining. Kautilya taught us to align with the enemy’s enemy. The U.S., despite transactional frictions, shares democratic values and strategic imperatives with India. Trump-Modi rapport has endured, delivering outcomes from defence to diaspora ties.

India can never be a vassal, nor does the US expect it. But we can be an important pole in the democratic camp, strengthening the now wobbly QUAD, tech partnerships, and EU/Japan/South Korea ties, while asserting our interests. Rather than indulging in Trump-bashing day and night or preaching to the world how India cannot be ignored, let’s get a little more transactional.

The US is not our therapist. But it can be a useful partner. A broad-based alliance with the world’s number one, even if not sole superpower, is in India’s best interests. Let us focus on that.

[Concluded]

(Makarand R. Paranjape, author and public intellectual, is currently Sri Aurobindo Chair, Vedere University & Director of Education, AHCP LLC. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)