Unrest in Gilgit-Baltistan: A crack in Pakistan’s Kashmir narrative

What began as a grassroots agitation against soaring electricity tariffs and the rising cost of flour in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir has spiralled into a serious political confrontation. Nearly a dozen people, including security personnel, were killed as authorities moved against the Joint Awami Action Committee — a movement whose demands have steadily expanded from economic grievances to challenging the political architecture through which Islamabad exercises influence over the sensitive territory.

At the heart of the latest tensions is a dispute over the 12 legislative assembly seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees from India who crossed over to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir after Partition in 1947. Long viewed by critics as a mechanism through which successive federal governments in Islamabad shape political outcomes in the region, the seats have become a rallying point for activists demanding greater political autonomy and accountability. More so because assembly elections to the Gilgit-Baltistan region were slated for June 7; trouble started two days earlier. Activists say that many of these reserved seats are given out to ruling party favourites, some of whom live outside the region. The area would be better served if they were given to locals.

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While economic discontent has simmered for years, it is this challenge to the existing power structure that appears to have alarmed Pakistani authorities.

Though the Gilgit-Baltistan assembly elections were held on schedule, the final count has been suspended amid allegations of rigging. Repolling was ordered in several constituencies on June 15. Preliminary results show the Pakistan People’s Party leading with 11 seats, followed by the Pakistan Muslim League (N) with four, while PTI-backed independents have secured two. PTI leaders have alleged electoral manipulation aimed at keeping their candidates out. The 45-member assembly includes 12 reserved seats, the focus of the current controversy.

Instead of engaging with a movement rooted in governance failures and public frustration, the state has resorted to a familiar Pakistani playbook — branding the Joint Awami Action Committee a terrorist organisation and launching a crackdown against its leaders and arresting activists. This inevitably led to violence. This high-handed action by the authorities turned a protest movement over bread-and-butter issues into a broader struggle over political rights and representation.

The area is crucial to Pakistan as it borders China, Afghanistan and India. More importantly, a stable Gilgit-Baltistan is essential for the success of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Karakoram Highway, a key artery linking Pakistan and China, runs through Gilgit-Baltistan. This region makes up around 85 per cent of the total Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

The irony here is difficult to miss. Islamabad now finds itself accused of employing tactics strikingly similar to those it has long criticised New Delhi for using across the Line of Control. In seeking to tighten its grip, Islamabad may instead be exposing the limits of its control.

India claims the entire territory as its own and, since 2019, includes the region on its official map. New Delhi regularly protests against the holding of elections in the “Indian territories illegally and forcibly occupied by Pakistan”. Not that India’s claims will change the ground reality. It is similar to Pakistan’s constant missives against New Delhi over its policies in Kashmir and accusations of human rights abuses. New Delhi is keenly watching developments in Gilgit-Baltistan.

According to the latest reports from the region, the government has possibly realised its folly and has invited leaders of the Joint Awami Action Committee for talks. Whatever the outcome of the talks, it is unlikely that Islamabad’s hold on the sensitive Gilgit-Baltistan region will weaken. A PPP or PML(N) government will emerge but, by all accounts, the former will form the government there.

The immediate crisis may ease if the government follows up the talks with fresh subsidies on electricity and flour, addressing some of the economic grievances that sparked the movement. But the deeper political questions raised by the Joint Awami Action Committee are unlikely to disappear.

The controversy over the 12 reserved assembly seats has opened a wider debate about representation, accountability and Islamabad’s influence over local politics. As long as these issues remain unresolved, challenges to the existing political order are likely to resurface sooner or later.

(Seema Guha is a journalist who has extensively covered foreign policy and geopolitics. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)