Rubio’s visit aimed to reset strained India ties, but countering China needs more

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India for four days from May 23 to 26, 2026. It was his first visit to India after becoming the Secretary of State in January 2025. In addition, it was an unusually long visit for an incumbent US Secretary of State to any country. Both these counts signalled a keen interest on the part of the US to arrest and improve the increasingly deteriorating ties between two major partners who enjoy a "comprehensive, global strategic partnership" between them.

It needs to be kept in mind that relations between India and the US have risen and grown progressively over a quarter of a century from 2000 to 2025. In fact, President Donald Trump’s first tenure as president in 2017-’21 could be termed the golden period in India-US bilateral ties because of the several far-reaching and impactful decisions taken to strengthen and deepen the bilateral partnership. It was hence not unreasonable to expect that a similar trajectory would be evident during Trump’s second tenure from January 2025 onwards.

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The two countries started on a positive note in Trump’s second term with an early and substantive stand-alone visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House on February 13, 2025. In addition to several decisions like the launch of the US-India COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce and Technology) for the 21st century, agreements were also reached to negotiate a multi-sector bilateral agreement for a subsequent historic interim trade agreement, deepen defence and "fifth-generation" reviews, and several more.

In an unexpected and surprising move, however, the US slapped 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from India in the Liberation Day tariffs announced by the US on April 3, 2025. This was followed on May 10, 2025, by the announcement by President Trump about the cease-fire between India and Pakistan in the Operation Sindoor conflict, even before India had made the announcement to that effect. Trump has followed up this claim ad nauseam after that, while India has resolutely maintained that India agreed to Pakistan’s plea for a ceasefire on a bilateral basis. India also refused to put its weight behind Trump’s nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump fervently expected. Matters deteriorated further with the imposition of a further 25 per cent penalty tariffs in nearly August 2025 on Indian goods on account of the purchase of Russian oil, while all other importers like China (which imports much more oil and gas from Russia than India), Turkey, the EU, etc were left untouched.

The last year has also witnessed several hateful and derogatory remarks, like India being a ‘’dead economy’’, India being a ‘’hell-hole’’, the need for the US to ‘’fix India’’, the threat that if India continued to buy Russian oil, the ‘’US would tear up the hell out of you’’, and ‘’crush your economy’’, etc, emanating from the far-right MAGA support base of Trump and some senior US officials.

In addition to issues relating to tariffs, visas and immigration affecting bilateral ties, relations in recent months have also been adversely impacted by the US cosying up to Pakistan and China, the two avowed adversaries of India. Moreover, although the Modi government has not criticised the US for its actions, there is no doubt that the US attack on Iran on February 28, the wider regional conflict and the Hormuz Strait blockade, have caused immense economic and strategic worries for India.

It was in the above background that Rubio undertook his visit. He called on PM Modi; had bilateral discussions with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval; and participated in the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting on May 26, 2026.

Notwithstanding the scorching heat of the North Indian summer, Rubio travelled to Kolkata (Mother Teresa’s Missionaries of Charity), Agra and Jaipur, in addition to New Delhi, to visit some cultural and heritage sites and to emphasise his strong Christian, Catholic roots.

Bilateral Discussions

Rubio had announced before his departure for India that he would seek to persuade India to buy more energy from the US and possibly also from Venezuela, in whose exports the US seems to be playing a big role. It would appear there are not many countries in the world which can refine the Venezuelan crude because of its high viscosity, density, and significant impurities like sulphur, vanadium, etc. However, the Jamnagar Refinery in India (the largest in the world) is specifically built to handle heavy, thick, and high-sulphur (sour) crude oils, including hard Venezuelan oil.

In their several bilateral meetings, Rubio and Jaishankar discussed developments pertaining to West Asia/Middle East, to the Indian subcontinent, and to East Asia as well as important global issues.

On the economic front, they spoke about the value of concluding, at an early date, the final text of the interim agreement regarding reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade. This would be an important step towards a comprehensive trade agreement which was envisaged during Prime Minister Modi's visit in February 2025. It was stated that a team from the US Trade Representative Office could visit India soon to finalise the deal. Energy comprised a significant aspect of the discussions. EAM reiterated that ensuring the accessibility and affordability of energy for India’s 1.4 billion people is India’s prime objective. He therefore welcomed the expansion in bilateral energy trade in recent months.

The ministers also spoke about nuclear energy cooperation as well. They asserted that the recent passage of the Shanti (Sustainable Harnessing and Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India) Act had opened up new possibilities. An American delegation visited India recently to realise the potential of cooperation in this domain.

On defence and security cooperation, a comprehensive underwater domain awareness roadmap was signed. They discussed the importance of taking into account the 'Make in India' approach and lessons drawn from recent conflicts while going forward in the defence domain.

Both ministers realised the enormous potential of the India-US partnership in the field of AI, which was emphasised during the recent AI Impact Summit in New Delhi. Cooperation in critical minerals and Pax Silica, which India joined recently, also came up for special mention. A bilateral agreement to promote partnership and ensure trusted, reliable supply chains in this critical field was reiterated. As India's semiconductor, clean energy and AI capabilities advance, this cooperation will become even more significant in days to come.

Jaishankar raised the issue of problems that legitimate Indian travellers face in respect of issuance of visas by the US authorities. He expressed India’s expectation that legal mobility from India would not be hampered, as this was vital to bilateral business, technology, and research cooperation.

The necessity of continued strong cooperation and zero tolerance to deal with the shared challenge of terrorism which afflicts both the countries was highlighted.

Jaishankar outlined India’s approach to dealing with the emerging challenges in the world.

First, India advocates dialogue and diplomacy to address conflicts; second, India supports safe and unimpeded maritime commerce; third, India demands scrupulous respect for international law; fourth, India is against the weaponisation of market shares and resources; and fifth, India believes in the value of trusted partnerships and resilient supply chains to de-risk the global economy.

The Quad Meet

The Quad Foreign Ministers’ (FMs’) meeting took place on May 26, 2026. This was the 3rd Quad foreign ministers’ meet since Trump assumed office in January 2025. There has been considerable disquiet amongst the academic, political and think tank communities because the Quad Summit to be hosted by India in 2025 was not held, and there is no indication where and when it might be held. Observers and analysts have seen this as proof that the US is losing interest in the Quad and has put it on the back burner. During his first term, Trump himself was instrumental in reviving the Quad in 2017, after it had gone into hibernation a decade earlier.

At that juncture, Trump had identified China as a systemic threat and a country with the capacity and intent of being able to dislodge the US from its global pre-eminent position. In the second term, after receiving pushback from China on the issue of export controls on critical mineral magnets, processing of which is controlled globally by China up to 90 per cent, Trump termed China not a strategic threat but a mere commercial competitor.

The ascendance of China as a peer power to the US became even more evident during Trump’s visit to Beijing on May 15. In Beijing, he could get no satisfaction from his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on pressurising Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, or abjure the development of nuclear weapons, or on the import of high-technology products from the US. After receiving this snub from China, Trump seems to have turned to India to shore up the steadily deteriorating bilateral ties.

The US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor, was successful in even co-opting Trump himself to send a message in person over a phone link during celebrations of the 250th Anniversary of the US Independence Day, declaring that he "loved India" and "loved PM Modi". Trump’s frequent compliments to PM Modi over the last more than a year have been seen as patronising in India and have not been successful in white-washing the negative comments coming from some senior members of the US administration about India and Indians in America.

The Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting was hence a welcome and useful opportunity which was enthusiastically embraced by all the foreign ministers to revitalise their partnership on this platform. It needs to be reiterated that in the Indo-Pacific, the security threat and aggressive posture of China are a reality. All the Quad members and several more in the region would, hence, like an active involvement and engagement of the US in ensuring and guaranteeing peace, stability and security in the region. While they would not like the differences between the US and China to boil over in an all-out confrontation or conflict, they would also not like the US dalliance with China to weaken or dilute its commitment to a free, open and rule-based Indo-Pacific.

Discussions focused around four pillars of Quad cooperation: first, maritime and transnational security; second, economic prosperity and security; third, critical and emerging technologies; and fourth, humanitarian assistance and disaster response.

The ministers underscored the importance of maritime security and resilient sea lanes in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad decided to expand its cooperation under the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). It launched the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration (IPMSC) to strengthen the coordination in maritime surveillance. IPMSC, with the integration of the latest technologies, will augment the IPMDA and enable sharing of real-time information. This effort will initially focus on the Indian Ocean region.

Ministers strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms, including cross-border terrorism. The terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April 2025 was condemned. Ministers reiterated the need for decisive international action against terrorist entities, finances, and sponsors.

The ministers announced the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative Framework” to strengthen cooperation in mining, processing, recycling, and investment across trusted critical mineral supply chains. They underlined the importance of freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce, and the safety and security of seafarers. In light of the recent disruptions in global energy markets, the Quad launched the Quad initiative on Indo-Pacific Energy Security.

The Quad reaffirmed its commitment to trusted and resilient infrastructure, including development of port infrastructure in Fiji. The ministers emphasised the importance of trusted technology partnerships and strengthening undersea cable connectivity across the Indo-Pacific. The Quad reaffirmed its commitment to practical cooperation in the domain of HADR.

Overall, the FMs’ meeting demonstrated the Quad’s fresh focus on practical cooperation and delivery-oriented initiatives that contribute to the peace, stability, resilience, and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific.

Conclusion

Marco Rubio is one of the front-runners for the Republican Party presidential nomination, the process for which will commence next year. It was hence useful for him to have spent four days in India, met India’s political leadership and also travelled a little around the country. He would have sensed and made his own assessment about the strength and potential of India, as well as the opportunities and red lines the US would need to keep in mind while dealing with the country.

Being smart and articulate and a long-time supporter of India, Rubio tried to do as much damage control as possible. His visit, which combined the bilateral agenda alongside the Quad FM’s meeting, attempted to repair one of the worst phases in bilateral ties in recent times caused largely by Washington’s unilateral moves and also to instil dynamism in the Quad framework which has been lying moribund over the past year.

Although the US might be getting perceived globally as a less influential and diminished player than in the past, particularly in the context of the rapid rise of China, it continues to carry significant heft and clout. Trump’s policies might have made the US less predictable, less dependable and more volatile, and countries might have started hedging their options and diversifying their economic and security ties with other partners; the US will continue to be a significant trade, technology, defence and economic partner for most countries. This is especially true for maritime democracies like India, Japan and Australia, which are located in the Indo-Pacific and which are keen to balance the growing economic and political muscle of China.

Timely implementation of decisions taken during Rubio’s visit, both on the bilateral front as well as the Quad deliberations, will play a huge role in determining the outcome of his trip.

(The writer is executive council member, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, president, Institute of Global Studies, Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)