Myanmar’s stability is critical to India’s Act East ambitions

India’s renewed diplomatic engagement with Myanmar comes at a critical moment, not merely for bilateral relations but for the broader future of India’s strategic aspirations in Southeast Asia. For New Delhi, Myanmar is no longer just a neighbouring country facing political instability and internal conflict. It has become the indispensable bridge connecting India’s Northeast to the dynamic economies of Southeast Asia. As a result, developments in Myanmar now have direct consequences for India’s Act East policy, regional connectivity projects, border security, and the economic prospects of millions living in the northeastern states.

For more than a decade, the Act East Policy has represented India’s effort to reposition the Northeast from a peripheral frontier into a gateway for international trade and regional integration. Roads, highways, border trade centres, and multimodal transport projects were envisioned as instruments that would transform geography from a disadvantage into an opportunity. However, the realisation of this vision depends heavily on conditions beyond India’s borders, particularly in Myanmar. The political instability that has gripped the country in recent years has exposed the vulnerabilities of India’s eastern strategy and highlighted the limitations of infrastructure-led regional integration when security conditions remain uncertain.

More from Opinion

Myanmar occupies a unique place in India’s geopolitical calculations. It is India’s only land bridge to Southeast Asia and the sole member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) sharing a land border with India. Every major overland connectivity project under the Act East framework passes through Myanmar. Consequently, instability in Myanmar is not merely a foreign policy challenge; it is a domestic developmental concern for India, especially for the northeastern region.

The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway illustrates this reality vividly. Conceived as a landmark project linking India with mainland Southeast Asia, the highway was expected to facilitate trade, enhance mobility, and strengthen regional economic integration. Policymakers envisioned trucks moving seamlessly from India into Myanmar and onwards to Thailand, creating new economic opportunities for businesses and communities across the Northeast. Yet the project has repeatedly faced delays, many of which stem from difficult conditions within Myanmar. Political unrest, armed conflict, and deteriorating security have complicated construction efforts and raised questions about the long-term viability of uninterrupted connectivity.

Similarly, the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, which seeks to connect Kolkata to Mizoram through Myanmar, has encountered challenges linked to security concerns and local instability. The project was designed to reduce the Northeast’s dependence on the narrow Siliguri Corridor and provide alternative access to the sea. While strategically significant, its progress demonstrates how ambitious infrastructure projects can become vulnerable when political conditions in transit countries deteriorate.

For the Northeastern states, these setbacks carry significant economic implications. States such as Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Assam, and Tripura were expected to benefit from increased trade flows, investment opportunities, and cross-border commerce. The promise of becoming a logistical hub linking South Asia and Southeast Asia generated optimism among policymakers and business communities alike. However, recurring instability in Myanmar has slowed the pace of transformation and limited the immediate benefits that these projects were expected to deliver.

Security concerns add another layer of complexity. India and Myanmar share a long and porous border that traverses difficult terrain and ethnically interconnected communities. Historically, insurgent groups operating in Northeast India have used border regions as sanctuaries. Cooperation between India and Myanmar has played a crucial role in addressing these security challenges. Political instability within Myanmar risks weakening institutional cooperation, creating opportunities for insurgent networks, arms trafficking, and other transnational threats to flourish.

The recent debates surrounding border management and the Free Movement Regime (FMR) underscore the sensitivity of the issue. While cultural and ethnic ties have historically linked communities across the border, concerns regarding illegal migration, smuggling, and security have prompted India to reconsider aspects of its border policy. Any disruption along the India–Myanmar frontier inevitably affects local communities, trade networks, and regional stability. Balancing humanitarian concerns with national security requirements will remain a difficult challenge for policymakers.

At a broader strategic level, Myanmar’s instability has implications for India’s competition with China. Beijing has invested heavily in Myanmar through infrastructure projects, energy corridors, and economic initiatives associated with the Belt and Road Initiative. While China also faces challenges arising from Myanmar’s internal conflicts, its economic footprint remains substantial. For India, sustained engagement with Myanmar is essential not only to advance connectivity but also to ensure that its strategic interests are not marginalised in a region of growing geopolitical significance.

However, India’s approach must remain pragmatic. New Delhi cannot dictate Myanmar’s internal political trajectory, nor can it afford to disengage. The reality is that India must work with whichever authorities are capable of facilitating cooperation while maintaining communication with a broad range of stakeholders. This balancing act reflects the complexities of diplomacy in a neighbourhood where strategic interests, security concerns, and democratic values often intersect in difficult ways.

The future of the Act East Policy will therefore depend not only on the completion of roads and bridges but also on the restoration of stability and predictability in Myanmar. Infrastructure can create opportunities, but it cannot by itself overcome persistent political turmoil. Economic corridors require secure environments, functioning institutions, and confidence among investors and traders. Without these conditions, even the most ambitious connectivity projects risk falling short of their transformative potential.

For Northeast India, the stakes are particularly high. The region’s economic integration with Southeast Asia remains one of the most promising pathways for long-term growth and development. Enhanced connectivity could boost exports, attract investment, strengthen tourism, and create employment opportunities. Yet these possibilities remain closely tied to developments across the border.

Ultimately, Myanmar’s stability has become a strategic necessity for India rather than a desirable outcome. The success of the Act East Policy, the effectiveness of regional connectivity initiatives, and the economic future of the Northeast are increasingly linked to the political and security environment in Myanmar. As New Delhi recalibrates its engagement with its eastern neighbour, it must recognise that the future of India’s eastern frontier may depend as much on developments in Naypyidaw as on decisions taken in New Delhi. The road to Southeast Asia, both literally and strategically, still runs through Myanmar.

(The writer is a techie, political analyst, and author. He pens national, geopolitical, and social issues. His social media handle is @prosenjitnth. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)