China’s rise, America’s fear: No escaping the Thucydides Trap

It was the rise of Athens and the fear that rise engendered in Sparta that made war inevitable

— History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides, Greek General and historian.

Thucydides writes in his book that the 27-year war between Athens and Sparta, which lasted from 431 to 404 BCE, was inevitable because Sparta (the traditional superpower) feared the rise of Athenian power.

In 2017, American political scientist Graham Tillett Allison Jr. wrote in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? that China’s rise could lead to a war with the US.

“For seven decades since World War II, a rules-based framework led by Washington has defined world order, producing an era without war among great powers. Most people now think of this as normal.”

More from Opinion

Today, according to Allison, “an increasingly powerful China is unravelling this long period of peace, throwing into question the peace that the past two to three generations have taken for granted”.

In an essay for the Financial Times in 2012, Allison coined the term “Thucydides Trap”, a situation in which a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.

In the book, he writes: “As a rapidly ascending China challenges America’s accustomed predominance, these two nations risk falling into a deadly trap first identified by the ancient Greek historian Thucydides.”

The US and China are “on a collision course for war—unless both parties take difficult and painful actions to avert it”.

Allison mentioned 16 cases in which a rising and an established power faced the trap, of which 12 ended in a war.

Allison’s warning haunted the Xi Jinping-Donald Trump summit when the Chinese president asked at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, “Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations?”

Xi’s mention of the Thucydides Trap, the first time in his seventh meeting with Trump, clearly showed that China is America’s biggest challenge—and Athenian China won’t hesitate to take on the Spartan US.

Xi didn’t challenge Trump openly but made it clear that either both nations resolve their differences amicably or risk confrontation.

Xi’s statement was the Sun Tzu style of masterclass diplomacy—offer a chance to your adversary to retreat.

In The Art of War, Chinese General, strategist and philosopher Sun writes: "Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.”

Xi also said that “the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” and “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” could coexist.

Xi might have offered a bridge to Trump, but the reality is diametrically opposite.

Great Rejuvenation vs MAGA

Neither “the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” and MAGA can coexist nor can both nations overcome the Thucydides Trap.

In fact, the “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” and the Thucydides Trap are intertwined. Both Washington and Beijing are trapped in a massive power struggle in which only one can emerge as the winner.

Trump might have taken his MAGA base for a ride with his unachievable dream of a unipolar world where only the US rules.

However, America can’t be great again with the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) core vision of “the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” and Xi’s “Chinese Dream” intact.

Similarly, the US, especially MAGA, is the biggest hurdle in Xi’s mission of “Make China Great Again”.

The slogan “the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation” was coined by the late Chinese President Jiang Zemin, the first Paramount Leader to revolutionise China’s military, in 2001.

The “Great Rejuvenation”, a historical and ideological goal, aims to strengthen China’s economy, military and technology, and to restore its global influence by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.

Xi’s “Chinese Dream” is the modern and personal version of the “great rejuvenation”. Both are used interchangeably by the CPC.

A nation can’t aspire to be a superpower unless its economy, technology and military are the strongest.

Therefore, the Chinese Dream isn’t only about economic and technological advancement; it’s also about becoming the most powerful military.

On the other hand, MAGA wants “America First” in every sphere—economic, technological and military might.

In a 2017 interview with The Washington Post, Trump said, “To me, it [MAGA] meant jobs. It meant industry, and meant military strength. … it meant so much.”

Economically, MAGA advocates aggressive US trade protectionism to the point of economic coercion to protect domestic industries, businesses and workers from foreign competition.

Trump’s unlawful tariff war was the best example of economic pressure on US trading partners.

China took the biggest beating. Trump slapped 145 per cent tariffs on China, which retaliated by imposing 125 per cent duties on US goods and restricting rare earths exports.

In technology, the US, rattled by China’s rapid advancement in artificial intelligence (AI), has restricted cutting-edge AI chips to Beijing. These chips play a critical role in processing Large Language Models.

The share of American firms, such as NVIDIA (Blackwell chips), in the global market for graphics processing units is around 90 per cent, dominating from electronic design automation (EDA), used to design circuits, to the architecture powering advanced neural networks.

Xi believes that “chips are as important for manufacturing as hearts are for humans” and semiconductor sovereignty is critical for China to become a superpower.

However, China lacks cutting-edge EDA tools to improve and upgrade semiconductors and advanced lithography machines required to design cutting-edge chips.

Militarily, China is the biggest threat to the US in the Western Pacific, especially the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS), and the Indo-Pacific, particularly Taiwan. China claims around 90 per cent of the SCS and 60 per cent of the ECS.

Both seas contain massive unexplored energy reserves.

Per US Geological Survey estimates, the SCS contains 2.4-9.2 billion barrels of petroleum, around 216 trillion cubic feet (TcF) of natural gas, cobalt and rare earths.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the ECS holds around 60-100 million barrels of oil in proven and probable reserves and 1-2 Tcf of proven and probable natural gas reserves.

The US doesn’t claim these seas unlike China and others—Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei in the SCS, and Japan, Taiwan and South Korea in the ECS.

However, the vast untapped hydrocarbon resources are a gold mine for the US, which regularly conducts freedom of navigation operations in these seas to contest the illegal Chinese claims. Besides, the US has defence pacts with Japan and the Philippines.

These US actions have not only riled China but also are a big hurdle to its unbridled ambition to be the only superpower.

Every Time US Acts, China Retaliates

Every time the US exerts pressure, China retaliates.

The US imports more from China than it exports with electrical machinery and electronic equipment accounting for around 28 per cent ($120 billion) of all imports.

In 2025, the US goods trade with China totalled an estimated $414.7 billion—imports were $308.4 billion and exports $106.3 billion, a trade deficit of $202.1 billion.

When the US slapped tariffs on China and restricted access to cutting-edge chips, Beijing retaliated with restricting the rare earth exports.

China not only produces almost 70 per cent of rare earths—a group of 17 metals used in electronic products, electric vehicles, energy systems and military applications—but also accounts for 90 per cent of the rare earth processing, separation and magnet production.

In 2025, the US imported around 10.4 million kg valued at $107 million from China, 71 per cent of total US rare earth imports.

After China restricted rare earth exports, the US had to sign a deal eliminating curbs on American EDA companies sending technology to the country. In return, China relaxed some export controls on antimony, gallium and germanium.

In the contested seas, according to the Department of Defense, Chinese warplanes conducted dangerous manoeuvres close to US fighter and reconnaissance planes and strategic bombers around 200 times in 2021-23.

In August 2022, China unilaterally suspended military communication, including theatre commander-level phone calls and the China-US Military Maritime Safety Consultation Mechanism (MMCA), with the US to protest then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Military communication was restored in November 2023.

Gaining military superiority has an extremely important role in China’s “Great Rejuvenation”.

The 2015 Defence White Paper states that the PLA take its “dream of making the military strong as part of the Chinese Dream”.

“Without a strong military, a country can be neither safe nor strong.”

A 2025 White Paper, “China’s National Security in the New Era”, states the same objective.

Taiwan Part of China’s Great Rejuvenation

Economic and technological tit-for-tat aside, the most dangerous aspect of China-US relations is Taiwan.

Reunification with Taiwan is an integral part of the “Great Rejuvenation”, and Xi hasn’t ruled out military force in the “unavoidable” process.

The 2015 Defence White Paper states that reunification with Taiwan “is an inevitable trend in the course of national rejuvenation”.

The 2019 Defence White Paper also mentions that “to solve the Taiwan question and achieve complete reunification of the country is in the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and essential to realising national rejuvenation”.

Allison’s warning in his book sounded ominous at the summit as Xi, in his starkest and bluntest warning yet to the US regarding Taiwan, told Trump to back off.

Behind closed doors, Xi told Trump during a 2-hour, 15-minute meeting that the “Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations”, Chinese state media reported.

“If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation,” the Chinese leader said.

On the other hand, the US is bound by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act to provide “defence articles and defence services” to Taiwan. The president is also bound to inform Congress if threats to Taiwan pose any danger to the United States interests. Subsequently, the president and Congress “shall determine the appropriate action in response to any such danger”.

The Act doesn’t specify whether the US will intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan.

Even the idea of or any discussion about American intervention is anathema to China.

A day after then-President Joe Biden said in Japan on May 23, 2022, that the US would militarily intervene if China tries to annex the island country by force, a furious Beijing warned America to be “cautious in words and deeds”. The White House immediately denied any change in its ‘Once China’ policy.

Trump, who has maintained strategic ambiguity on military assistance to Taiwan in a conflict with China, told reporters while returning from the summit that Xi doesn’t want a war over Taiwan.

When Xi asked whether the US would intervene in a conflict with Taiwan, Trump claimed to have replied, “I don’t talk about that.”

After approving an arms package worth $11 billion for Taiwan in December, Trump hasn’t approved a second package worth around $14 billion. “I will make a determination over the next fairly short period,” he said when asked about the package.

Trump’s most significant comment on Taiwan on board the Air Force One was, “The last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,5000 miles away.”

Clearly, Trump got Xi’s warning on Taiwan.

Moreover, several wargames have shown that the US would lose to China in a war over Taiwan with its military bases and Carrier Strike Groups in the Indo-Pacific attacked by Chinese ballistic missiles.

US Threat to China’s Ambitions

Beijing wants to dislodge the US from its position of global stewardship—and the Iran War is an opportune moment. Trump’s cavalier and dangerous attitude has dragged West Asia to the precipice.

China exploited the war to gain a tactical advantage over the US in diplomatic, informational, military and economic spheres, according to a confidential US intelligence analysis.

China has sold arms to America’s Persian Gulf allies as they faced barrages of Iranian missiles and drones. China has also offered its green energy technology to several countries, including Thailand, Australia and the Philippines, to avert future oil crises caused by conflicts.

China also minutely studied and learned from the US and Iranian battlefield tactics, attacks and counterattacks and how a nation militarily inferior to the US managed to withstand its massive firepower and retaliate devastatingly.

China wants to lead a “turbulent” world, but the US is the biggest threat and obstacle to its global ambitions.

The 2025 White Paper highlights China’s global ambitions of being a force for maintaining “world peace and stability” and injecting “reliable stability into a turbulent world”, especially in the Asia-Pacific.

On the other hand, the document criticises the US, without naming it, for “hegemonism, power politics, Cold War mentality, bullying, exploitation and zero-sum games” which are “causing profound harm”.

“Some major powers are disregarding their international responsibilities, withdrawing from treaties and international organisations, and undermining global stability. … Populism and extreme political ideologies are on the rise.”

On the economic front, the paper blames the US for “unilateralism and protectionism” as “some countries are imposing tariffs on other countries for non-economic reasons, disrupting the global economic order”.

China also mentions how the Global South has profoundly readjusted the international balance of power and is “playing an increasingly important role in promoting world peace and cooperating to address global challenges”.

The paper specifically mentions how the US is responsible for destabilising Asia-Pacific.

“The Asia-Pacific region has become a focal point of great power rivalry. Some countries are strengthening their military alliances in the Asia-Pacific, courting regional allies, building exclusive small blocs, and insisting on advancing military deployments, including intermediate-range missile systems, severely exacerbating regional tensions”.

The accuses the US of “blatantly interfering in China’s internal affairs” by playing the “Taiwan card” and stirring up trouble in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the East China Sea”.

The document praises China for always standing on the right side of history and “stabilising an uncertain world with its own certainty”.

A US-China war might not be inevitable, but both countries are trapped in a vicious struggle for power and dominance—there’s no escaping the Thucydides Trap.

(The writer is a freelance journalist with more than two decades of experience and comments primarily on foreign affairs. He tweets as @FightTheBigots. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)