Bangladesh polls: Tarique Rahman’s resounding victory comes with a crown of thorns

On February 12, 2026, a nation of 177 million people held its thirteenth Parliamentary Election to elect 300 members to its unicameral House of the Nation, the Jatiya Sangsad. As per the revised electoral roll published by the Election Commission, 127.71 million people (64.8 million men, 62.9 million women, and 1,234 third gender voters), i.e., 72 per cent of the total population, were eligible to vote.

A total of 1,981 candidates from 59 registered parties (including 249 independents) contested the election. Polling in one constituency was countermanded due to a candidate’s death. According to official data released by the Bangladesh Election Commission, a high 60.69 per cent of voters exercised their franchise.

The Backdrop

The thirteenth Parliamentary Election took place one year, six months and twelve days after the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024, primarily following massive student-led protests over the reinstated job quota system.

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The protests first erupted in July 2024 after a court ruling restored a 30 per cent quota in government jobs favouring descendants of 1971 war veterans, most of whom were linked to her Awami League. The move was widely perceived as nepotistic amid 40 per cent youth unemployment. Violence escalated when security forces killed over 200 protesters in the initial phase, triggering a nationwide uprising. What eventually led to Hasina’s resignation and flight to India included:

Government crackdown: Massive casualties (some sources suggest as high as 1,400), mass arrests, internet blackouts, and attacks by ruling party student wings fuelled public anger.

Alleged authoritarian grip: Long-standing grievances included allegedly rigged elections in 2018 and 2024, suppression of the opposition (including BNP and Jamaat arrests), extrajudicial killings, and widening economic inequality despite overall growth.

Non-cooperation movement: Students Against Discrimination issued an ultimatum; the army’s neutrality and support from sections of the ex-military establishment tipped the balance on 5 August.

This Gen Z revolt, amplified by social media, forced Sheikh Hasina to resign and flee to India after more than 15 years in power. An interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as Chief Adviser was sworn in on 8 August 2024, following Hasina’s resignation on 5 August. Elections were subsequently held on 12 February as announced.

A Troubled History

Bangladesh declared independence on 26 March 1971 but effectively became independent on 16 December 1971, after Pakistan’s defeat in the war against India and the Mukti Vahini. As history shows, Bangladesh’s journey has been a turbulent one.

In its 54-plus years of existence, the country has witnessed as many as 29 attempts at military coups, beginning in August 1975, just four years after independence.

Military dictators ruled for about 15 years between 1975 and 1991, including:

Of the 29 coup attempts since 1971, nine succeeded either in changing governments or installing military rule, including:

Most others were failed plots, mutinies or assassination attempts, including more than 20 failed attempts on Ziaur Rahman’s life.

Era of Parliamentary Elections

The first parliamentary election was held on 7 March 1973. Since then, Bangladesh has conducted 13 national parliamentary elections (1973, 1979, 1986, 1988, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2008, 2014, 2018, 2024 and 2026).

Though the country has seen nearly 20 (including caretaker) prime ministers and heads of state, beginning with Tajuddin Ahmad and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, two Begums dominated the electoral battlefield for over three decades:

Khaleda Zia served as Prime Minister for approximately 10 years and one month across three terms:

A brief interim term in early 1996 before resigning to allow a caretaker government

Sheikh Hasina served as Prime Minister for a total of 21 years — the longest tenure of any Bangladeshi Prime Minister until her ouster in August 2024:

It is now time to return to the historic 2026 parliamentary election.

The Electoral System

Bangladesh has a unicameral legislature — the Jatiya Sangsad or House of the Nation — comprising 350 seats.

The voting age is 18, while candidates must be at least 25. Of the total seats, 300 members are elected directly, while the remaining 50 are reserved for women and allocated to parties proportionally after the election.

Choice Before Voters

The parliamentary election of February 12, 2026, was the first in decades to be held in the absence of the two Begums — Khaleda Zia of the BNP and Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League. Khaleda Zia died in December after a prolonged illness, while Sheikh Hasina remains in exile in India and her party was barred from contesting.

Voters effectively had the following choices:

One: Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)

The BNP led a coalition of ten parties. Founded in 1978 by Ziaur Rahman and later led by his wife Khaleda Zia, it is now spearheaded by their 60-year-old son, Tarique Rahman.

Tarique returned to Bangladesh in December, shortly before his mother’s death, after 17 years in exile in London.

The BNP participated in this election after boycotting the 2014, 2018 and 2024 polls under Sheikh Hasina’s premiership. Following Hasina’s ouster, the BNP emerged as the frontrunner in 2026.

Two: Jamaat-e-Islami

Led by 67-year-old former government doctor Shafiqur Rahman, Jamaat-e-Islami headed an 11-party alliance that included the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by students who led the 2024 protests.

Jamaat, once an ally of the BNP, was part of the BNP-led four-party alliance in the 2001 victory, winning 17 seats and two cabinet positions. In 1991, it won 18 seats and provided external support to the BNP’s minority government.

The Vote Goes To

Though incidents of violence were reported and allegations of rigging were made, independent observers described the election as relatively free and fair.

With the Awami League absent, the BNP-led coalition entered the contest as the favourite — a position reflected in the results. The alliance secured 212 of the 297 seats declared by the Election Commission at the time of reporting. Also, on the same day, a 'referendum' was held alongside the general elections, in which voters approved the July National Charter.

The breakdown:

Bangladesh Nationalist Party: 209 seats

Jamaat-e-Islami: 68 seats

National Citizen Party: 6 seats

Independents: 7 seats

Others: 5 seats

Two seats pending

One seat invalidated due to the death of a candidate

From Exile to Power

Opinion polls had given the BNP a clear edge, and the party lived up to expectations, winning 209 seats and securing an overwhelming two-thirds majority in the 300-member Jatiya Sangsad.

Tarique Rahman’s return from exile to power has been remarkable. Now comes the real test: confronting Bangladesh’s pressing challenges while fulfilling his ambitious promises. He must also live up to his pre-election approval rating of 47.8 per cent.

Challenges Before the New Prime Minister

1. Reviving the Economy

Corruption and economic mismanagement have left the economy severely strained, with high youth unemployment, stalled growth and inflation at 8.5 per cent — the highest in South Asia. Rahman has pledged to build a $1 trillion economy by 2034, create 10 million IT jobs, boost foreign direct investment, and stabilise inflation and remittances.

2. Eradicating Corruption

Bangladesh ranks among the world’s most corrupt nations. Rahman promises “zero tolerance” and top-down accountability. However, past accusations against him — though he has been acquitted — and concerns about parallel power structures may generate scepticism. Institutional credibility will be key.

3. Relations with India and Geopolitics

Relations with India have deteriorated since Hasina’s ouster, including concerns regarding minority security. Repairing ties will be crucial for trade, border management and regional stability.

4. Rise of Islamism

With the Awami League absent, Jamaat-e-Islami became the principal opposition force, emerging with over 66 seats — its strongest showing ever. Previously, its best result was 18 seats in 1991.

Jamaat’s rise is not reassuring for Bangladesh. Among other controversial beliefs, its leadership has expressed views opposing women in leadership roles.

5. Containing Restive Youth

Sheikh Hasina’s fall followed violent Gen Z-led agitation. The youth-backed National Citizen Party won six seats. High unemployment and inflation remain unresolved. Bangladesh’s democratic foundations remain fragile, and youth disillusionment could fuel extremism if ignored. Rahman will have to tread carefully while engaging an impatient generation.

6. A Fragile Democracy

In 55 years, Bangladesh has witnessed 29 coup attempts, nine of them successful, and endured 15 years of military rule. Sustaining democratic governance amid polarisation and urgent reforms will be a formidable challenge for a first-time Prime Minister.

Aspirations Galore

Rahman’s manifesto has raised enormous expectations. Key pledges include:

GDP and Investment

Job Creation

Governance Reform

With a two-thirds majority, Tarique Rahman must now act decisively to meet these formidable challenges and honour his lofty promises. He would do well to remember that public memory is short, Bangladesh’s youth are restless, and its generals have historically not remained indifferent observers.

It is now action time for Bangladesh’s new Prime Minister. I wish him the very best on what promises to be a daunting journey along a road strewn with thorns.

(The author is a multi-disciplinary thought leader with Action Bias and an India-based impact consultant. He is President of Advisory Services at BARSYL. Views expressed are personal and do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s position.)