Abraham Accords: Trump's new troublemaker in Iran peace talks

After almost three months into the war initiated by pre-emptive strikes launched by Israel and the US on Iran on February 28, the war stands at a very critical inflection point. It is very clear that neither the US nor Iran has any appetite to restart hostilities, but neither is willing to stand down either. Plus, issues like the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, an issue which did not exist as a point of contention at the start of the war, have now become one of the biggest points of negotiations to end the war.

The war has reached a situation where face-saving exits are being desperately sought each day, and in many such attempts, new variables are being added to either pressurise, coerce or incentivise deal-making. As a result, the whole process is oscillating between hope and despair with every new announcement and exchange of a draft deal.

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While the world was looking at a possible draft deal to emerge over the Memorial weekend on May 23, President Trump, in his characteristic style, threw in a new variable into the peace talks with Iran – the Abraham Accords. Posting a message on May 25, citing the telephonic conversations with most leaders of the Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, and Turkey as well as Pakistan, on peace negotiations with Iran, he stated that it should be mandatory that all of these countries, at a minimum, simultaneously sign onto the Abraham Accords.

Shocked and taken aback by this sudden twist, most Arab leaders did not know how to respond immediately. From reports in the media, however, it is quite clear that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Pakistan are unlikely to join the accords anytime soon. While Pakistan was emphatic in refusing to join, stating that it contradicted the country’s “fundamental ideologies” and its refusal to recognise the state of Israel, Saudi Arabia made it clear that there can be no normalisation with Israel unless there is a permanent solution to the Palestinian issue.

With the region already grappling with multiple issues – the war in Iran, the blockade across the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy crisis, the future of regional security, etc– this diktat from President Trump has only added to the chaos and uncertainty in the region.

What are the Abraham Accords?

The Abraham Accords are a set of peace deals, brokered by the US as an instrument of mainstreaming Israel with the Arab nations. The Accords were signed on 15th September 2020, when the UAE and Bahrain publicly normalised diplomatic relations with Israel; Morocco and Sudan subsequently took steps toward normalisation in 2020–2021.

The Accords, in fact, formalised a process that was already gaining traction in the region: a move towards building strategic, intelligence and economic ties between Israel and a number of Sunni Arab states. It was driven by both security and economic issues – mutual concerns about threats from Iran and a desire to procure advanced technology, security partnerships, and Western investment in return for the deal.

The Accords also came about at a time when most Arab nations were looking to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuel-based revenues and opened opportunities for trade, security partnerships and public engagement between Israel and several Arab states.

The Accords were, in fact, the culmination of a process which started soon after President Donald Trump took office for his first term in January 2017 and put the resolution of the Israel-Palestine issue on priority. Consequently, Trump hosted the Palestine Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas as early as in May 2017, and, during the meeting, he emphasised that “he is personally committed to helping Israelis and Palestinians achieve a comprehensive peace".

Six months down the line, Trump took the world totally by surprise when, on December 6, 2017, he announced his twin decisions to formally recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv. It was soon followed by reports of the Trump Peace Plan, reported first in February 2018 and finally presented by President Trump on January 20, 2020, as a ‘Peace to Prosperity’ plan. The 181-page plan even included a conceptual map of a two-state solution too.

The Abraham Accords were the next and most significant step. Signed after hectic parleys over months, the accords had twin aims: firstly, to bring about broad-based acceptance and reconciliation of Israel with the Arab world. Secondly, it singled out, without even specifying, Iran as the enemy No.1.

In the subtext of the Accords was also subtly implanted the Palestinian issue, where it was stated that countries in the Accord will continue their efforts to achieve a just, comprehensive, realistic and enduring solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, giving no assurances or timelines.

Can the Accords contribute to the peace deal with Iran?

To get to the answer, a quick review of how the Accords have fared is important. Almost six years since the signing, the key question is, did the Abraham Accords achieve what they set out for? Have more countries, especially within the Gulf region, joined the Abraham Accords? Has Israel been accepted and mainstreamed into the region? Have the Accords resulted in more peace and prosperity for Israel and the region? The answer to all the above is ‘no’.

Well, Kazakhstan may have joined the Abraham Accords recently, but it is located far away from the Gulf region. Bahrain, one of the signatories, recalled its ambassador from Israel in November 2023, early into the Gaza war, and has threatened diplomatic actions against Israel repeatedly ever since. The Gaza war, Israel’s strike on Qatari soil in September 2025, and the mounting regional and global anger against the US's and Israel’s unilateral and pre-emptive strikes into Iran, leading to the current blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a global energy crisis, are proof of the ineffectiveness of the whole process of the Abraham Accords. Far from ushering in a stable peace, the accords are on life support – a result of a flawed design that sought quick diplomatic wins while ignoring the core issue of discord in the region, the central question of Palestine.

There is another key issue here to be highlighted. The ongoing war in Iran has exposed the fragility and ineffectiveness of the American security guarantees in the Gulf nations, and countries are openly calling out for a new security architecture which may not assure American dominance in the region. Statements from President Trump, threatening to blow up Oman or setting conditions for peace with Iran only if Gulf nations sign the Abraham Accords, do not go down well with regional leadership.

Plus, Israel’s expansionist actions, in a bid to create a ‘Greater Israel’ and undertaking military operations in Syria and Lebanon with impunity, setting up a secret military base in Iraq and not moving towards Phase 2 of the peace plan in Gaza, are prompting red flags in the region on trusting and collaborating with Israel. The only exception to this is the UAE, which has openly courted Israel and has benefitted from Israel’s military support in the ongoing war.

Conclusion

Over the past six years, it has clearly emerged that the Abraham Accords were narrow in focus and announced hurriedly for political gains (US presidential elections in November 2020). The US wanted Israel’s normalisation and branding of Iran as enemy No. 1 in the region, while Israel sought legitimacy. On the other hand, Gulf nations were looking to diversify economies beyond fossil fuels, get advanced technology and forge stronger security partnerships. Sadly, over the past years, none of these have been proven successful.

In the ongoing war in Iran too, the manner in which the war was initiated and the way Iran has responded have exposed bitterly not only the false pretexts on which war was initiated but also the inability of the US and Israel combined to subdue Iran militarily. With the trust and credibility of both the US and Israel under question in the region, it is difficult to see how the Gulf nations would agree to sign the Abraham Accords and how the Accords could be a precondition to peace with Iran.

(Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)